世界经济论坛-2024年全球风险报告（英）-2024.docx

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1、TheGlobalRisksReport202419thEditionINSIGHTREPORT.举InpartnershipwithMarshMcLennanandZurichInsuranceGroupJanuary 2024TheGlobalRisksReport2024TermsofuseanddisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsex

2、pressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.World Economic Forum 91-93 route de Ia Capite CH-1223 CoIognyZGeneva SwitzerlandTe

3、l.: +41 (0)22 8691212Fax:+41 (0)22 786 2744E-mail: contactweforum.orgCopyright 2024 by the World Economic ForumAll rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or other

4、wise without the prior permission of the World Economic Forum.ISBN: 978-2-940631-64-3The report and an interactive data platform are available at QlobaI-risks-reoort-2024/.ContentsPreface4Overviewofmethodology5Keyfindings6Chapter 1: GlobalRisks2024:Ataturningpoint121.1 Theworldin2024121.2 Thepathto2

5、026141.3 Falseinformation181.4 Riseinnflict221.5 Economicuncertainty271.6 Lkingahead321.7 notes33Chapter 2: GlobalRisks2034:Overthelimit372.1 Theworldin2034372.2 Structuralforces402.3 A3world422.4 Alincharge502.5 Theendofdevelopment?572.6 Crimewave682.7 Preparingforthedecadeahead762.8 notes77Chapter

6、 3: Respondingtoglobalrisks853.1 LOCaIiZedstrategies863.2 Breakthroughendeavors873.3 Collectiveactions893.4 Cross-bordercoordination903.5 Conclusion923.6 notes94Appendix A: DefinitionsandGlobalRisksList95Appendix B: GlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey2023-202499Appendix C: ExecutiveOpinionSurvey:NationalRis

7、kPerceptions102Appendix D: Riskgovernance112PartnerInstitutes115Acknowledgements121PrefaceSaadiaZahidiManagingDirectorLastyearsGlobalRisksHepozTwamedofaworldthatwouldnoteasilyreboundfromcontinuedshocks.As2024begins,the19theditionofthereportissetagainstabackdropofrapidlyaeleratingtechnologicalchangea

8、ndenomicuncertainty,astheworldisplaguedbyaduoofdangerouscrises:climateandconflict.Underlyinggeopoliticaltensionscombinedwiththeeruptionofactivehostilitiesinmultipleregionsisntributingtoanunstableglobalordercharacterizedbypolarizingnarratives,erodingtrustandinsecurity.Atthesametime,countriesaregrappl

9、ingwiththeimpactsofrecord-breakingextremeweather,asclimate-changeadaptationeffortsandresourcesfallshortofthetype,scaleandintensityofclimate-relatedeventsalreadytakingplace.Cost-of-livingpressurescontinuetobite,amidstpersistentlyelevatedinflationandinterestratesandntinuedeconomicuncertaintyinmuchofth

10、eworld.Despondentheadlinesareborderless,sharedregularlyandwidely,andasenseoffrustrationatthestatusquoisincreasinglypalpable.Together,thisleavesamplermforacceleratingrisks-likemisinformationanddisinformation-topropagateinsocietiesthathavealreadybeenpoliticallyandeconomicallyweakenedinrecentyears.Just

11、asnaturalecosystemscanbepushedtothelimitandbecomesomethingfundamentallynew;suchsystemicshiftsarealsotakingplaceacrossotherspheres:geostrategic,demographicandtechnological.Thisyear,weexploretheriseofglobalrisksagainstthebackdropofthesetlStructuraIforcesaswellasthetectonicclashesbetweenthem.Thenextset

12、ofglobalconditionsmaynotnecessarilybebetterorworsethanthelast,butthetransitionwillnotbeaneasyone.Thereportexplorestheglobalrisklandscapeinthisphaseoftransitionandgovernancesystemsbeingstretchedbeyondtheirlimit.Itanalysesthemostsevereperceivedriskstoeconomiesandsocietiesovertwoand10years,inthecontext

13、oftheseinfluentialforces.Couldwecatapulttoa3worldastheimpactsofclimatechangeintrinsicallyrewritetheplanet?Havewereachedthepeakofhumandevelopmentforlargepartsoftheglobalpopulation,givendeterioratingdebtandgeo-economicnditions?Couldwefaceanexplosionofcriminalityandcorruptionthatfeedsonmorefragilestate

14、sandmorevulnerablepopulations?Willanarmsraceninexperimentaltechnologiespresentexistentialthreatstohumanity?Thesetransnationalriskswillbecomehardertohandleasglobalcperationerodes.InthisyearsGlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey,two-thirdsofrespondentspredictthatamultipolarorderwilldominateinthenext10years,asmi

15、ddleandgreatpowerssetandenforce-butalsocontest-currentrulesandnorms.Thereportconsiderstheimplicationsofthisfragmentedworld,wherepreparednessforglobalrisksisevermorecriticalbutishinderedbylackofconsensusandcooperation.Italsopresentsaconceptualframeworkforaddressingglobalrisks,identifyingthescopefor44

16、minimumviableefforf,foraction,dependingonthenatureoftherisk.Theinsightsinthisreportareunderpinnedbynearlytwodecadesoforiginaldataonglobalriskperception.ThereporthighlightsthefindingsfromourannualGlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey,whichbringstogetherthecollectiveintelligenceofnearly1,500globalleadersacrossa

17、cademia,business,government,theinternationalmmunityandcivilsociety.Italsoleveragesinsightsfromover200thematicexperts,includingtheriskspecialiststhatformtheGlobalRisksReportAdvisoryBoard,GlobalFutureCouncilonComplexRisks,andtheChiefRiskOfficersCommunity.Wearealsodeeplygratefultoourlong-standingpartne

18、rs,MarshMcLennanandZurichInsuranceGroup,fortheirinvaluablecontributionsinshapingthethemesandnarrativeofthereport.Finally,wewouldliketoexpressourgratitudetothecoreteamthatdevelopedthisreport-EllissaCavaciuti-Wishart,SophieHeadingandKevinKohler-andtoRickyLiandAttilioDiBattistafortheirsupport.Thefuture

19、isnotfixed.Amultiplicityofdifferentfuturesisconceivableoverthenextdecade.Althoughthisdrivesuncertaintyintheshortterm,italsoallowsroomforhope.Alongsideglobalrisksandtheera-definingchangesunderwaylieuniqueopportunitiestorebuildtrust,optimismandresilienceinourinstitutionsandsocieties.Itisourhopethatthe

20、reportsen/esasavitalcalltoactionforopenandconstructivedialogueamongleadersofgovernment,businessandcivilsocietytotakeactiontominimizeglobalrisksandbuilduponlong-termopportunitiesandsolutions.OverviewofmethodologyTheGlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey(GRPS)hasunderpinnedtheGlobalRiSkSReportlornearlytwodecades

21、andistheWorldEconomicForumspremiersourceoforiginalglobalrisksdata.Thisyear,sGRPShasbroughttogetherleadinginsightsontheevolvingglobalriskslandscapefrom1,490expertsacrossacademia,business,government,theinternationalcommunityandcivilsociety.ResponsesfortheGRPS2023-2024werecollectedfrom4Septemberto9Octo

22、ber2023.uGIobaIriskisdefinedasthepossibilityoftheoccurrenceofaneventorconditionwhich,ifitoccurs,wouldnegativelyimpactasignificantproportionofglobalGDP1populationornaturalresources.Relevantdefinitionsforeachofthe34globalrisksareincludedinAppendixA:DefinitionsandGlobalRisksList.TheGRPS2023-2024include

23、dthefollowingmponents:- Risklandscapeinvitedrespondentstoassessthelikelyimpact(severity)ofglobalrisksoveraone-,two-and10-yearhorizontoillustratethepotentialdevelopmentofindividualglobalrisksovertimeandidentifyareasofkeyconcern.- Consequencesaskedrespondentstoconsidertherangeofpotentialimpactsofarisk

24、arising,tohighlightrelationshipsbetweenglobalrisksandthepotentialforcompoundingcrises.- Riskgovernanceinvitedrespondentstoreflectonwhichapproacheshavethemostpotentialfordrivingactiononglobalriskreductionandpreparedness.- Outlookaskedrespondentstopredicttheevolutionofkeyaspectsunderpinningtheglobalri

25、skslandscape.RefertoAppendixB:GlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey2023-2024formoredetailonthemethodology.TocomplementGRPSdataonglobalrisks,thereportalsodrawsontheWorldEconomicForumsExecutiveOpinionSurvey(EOS)toidentifyrisksthatposethemostseverethreattoeachcountryoverthenexttwoyears,asidentifiedbyover11,000bu

26、sinessleadersin113economies.WhenconsideredincontextwiththeGRPS,thisdataprovidesinsightintolocalconcernsandprioritiesandpointstopotentialuhotspotsandregionalmanifestationsofglobalrisks.RefertoAppendixC:ExecutiveOpinionSurvey:NationalRiskPerceptionsformoredetails.Finally,thereportintegratestheviewsofl

27、eadingexpertstogenerateforesightandtosupportanalysisofthesurveydata.Contributionswerecollectedfrom55colleaguesacrosstheWorldEconomicForumsplatforms.Thereportalsoharnessesqualitativeinsightsfromover160expertsfromacrossacademia,business,government,theinternationalcommunityandcivilsocietythroughcommuni

28、tymeetings,privateinterviewsandthematicworkshopsconductedfromMaytoOctober2023.TheseincludetheGlobalRisksAdvisoryBoard,GlobalFutureCouncilonComplexRisksandtheChiefRisksOfficersCommunity.RefertoAcknowledgementsformoredetail.KeyfindingsTheGlobalRisksReport2024presentsthefindingsoftheGlobalRisksPercepti

29、onSurvey(GRPS)swhichcapturesinsightsfromnearly1,500globalexperts.Thereportanalysesglobalrisksthroughthreetimeframestosupportdecision-makersinbalancingcurrentcrisesandlonger-termpriorities.Chapter1exploresthemostseverecurrentrisks,andthoserankedhighestbysurveyrespondents,overatwo-yearperiod,analysing

30、indepththethreerisksthathaverapidlyacceleratedintothetop10rankingsoverthetwo-yearhorizon.Chapter2focusesonthetoprisksemergingoverthenextdecadeagainstabackdropofgeostrategic,climate,technologicalanddemographicshifts,divingdeeperintofourspecificriskoutlooks.Thereportconcludesbyconsideringapproachesfor

31、addressingcomplexandnon-linearaspectsofglobalrisksduringthisperiodofglobalfragmentation.Belowarethekeyfindingsofthereport.Adeterioratingglobaloutlook1.ookingbackattheeventsof2023,plentyofdevelopmentscapturedtheattentionofpeoplearoundtheworld-whileothersreceivedminimalscrutiny.Vulnerablepopulationsgr

32、appledwithlethalconflicts,fromSudantoGazaandIsrael,alongsiderecord-breakingheatconditions,drought,wildfiresandflooding.Societaldiscontentwaspalpableinmanycountries,withnewscyclesdominatedbypolarization,violentprotests,riotsandstrikes.Althoughgloballydestabilizingconsequences-suchasthoseseenattheinit

33、ialoutbreakoftheRussia-UkrainewarortheCOVID-19pandemic-werelargelyavoided,thelonger-termoutlookforthesedevelopmentscouldbringfurtherglobalshocks.Asweenter2024,2023-2024GRPSresultshighlightapredominantlynegativeoutlookfortheworldoverthenexttwoyearsthatisexpectedtoworsenoverthenextdecade(FigureA).Surv

34、eyedinSeptember2023,themajorityofrespondents(54%)anticipatesomeinstabilityandamoderateriskofglobalcatastrophes,whileanother30%expectevenmoreturbulentconditions.Theoutlookismarkedlymorenegativeoverthe10-yeartimehorizon,withnearlytwo-thirdsofrespondentsexpectingastormyorturbulentoutlook.Inthisyearsrep

35、ort,wecontextualizeouranalysisthroughfourstructuralforcesthatwillshapethematerializationandmanagementofglobalrisksoverthenextdecade.Thesearelonger-termshiftsinthearrangementofandrelationshipbetweenfoursystemicelementsofthegloballandscape:- TrajectoriesrelatingtoglobalwarmingandrelatedconsequencestoE

36、arthsystems(Climatechange).- Changesinthesize,growthandstructureofpopulationsaroundtheworld(Demographicbifurcation).FIGURE AShort term (2 years)Long term (10 years)Stormy: Global catastrophic risks loomingTurbulent: Upheavals and elevated risk of global catastrophesUnsettled: Some instability, moder

37、ate risk of global catastrophesStable: Isolated disruptions, low risk of global catastrophes Calm: Negligible risk of global catastrophesShortandlong-termglobaloutlookvWhichofthefollowingbestcharacterizesyouroutlookfortheWoddoverthefollowingtimeperiods?NoteThepercentagesinthegraphmaynotaddupto100%be

38、causefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.- Developmentalpathwaysforfrontiertechnologies(Technologicalacceleration).- Materialevolutionintheconcentrationandsourcesofgeopoliticalpower(Geostrategicshifts).Anewsetofglobalconditionsistakingshapeacrosseachofthesedomainsandthesetransitionswillbecharacterizedbyun

39、certaintyandvolatility.Associetiesseektoadapttothesechangingforces,theircapacitytoprepareforandrespondtoglobalriskswillbeaffected.EnvironmentalriskscouldhitthepointofnoreturnEnvironmentalriskscontinuetodominatetheriskslandscapeoverallthreetimeframes.Two-thirdsofGRPSrespondentsrankExtremeweatherasthe

40、topriskmostlikelytopresentamaterialcrisisonaglobalscalein2024(FigureB),withthewarmingphaseoftheElNino-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)cycleprojectedtointensifyandpersistuntilMaythisyear.Itisalsoseenasthesecond-mostsevereriskoverthetwo-yeartimeframeandsimilartolastyearsrankings,nearlyallenvironmentalrisksfe

41、atureamongthetop10overthelongerterm(FigureC).However,GRPSrespondentsdisagreeabouttheurgencyofenvironmentalrisks,inparticularBiodiversitylossandecosystemcollapseandCriticalchangetoEarthsystems.Youngerrespondentstendtoranktheserisksfarmorehighlyoverthetwo-yearperiodcomparedtoolderagegroups,withbothris

42、ksfeaturingintheirtop10rankingsintheshortterm.Theprivatesectorhighlightstheserisksastopconcernsoverthelongerterm,incontrasttorespondentsfromcivilsocietyorgovernmentwhoprioritizetheserisksovershortertimeframes.Thisdissonanceinperceptionsofurgencyamongkeydecision-makersimpliessub-optimalalignmentandde

43、cision-making,heighteningtheriskofmissingkeymomentsofintervention,whichwouldresultinlong-termchangestoplanetarysystems.Chapter2.3:A3worldexplorestheconsequencesofpassingatleastoneclimatetippingpointwithinthenextdecade.Recentresearchsuggeststhatthethresholdfortriggeringlong-term,potentiallyirreversib

44、leandself-perpetuatingchangestoselectplanetarysystemsislikelytobepassedatorbefore1.5oCofglobalwarming,whichiscurrentlyanticipatedtobereachedbytheearly2030s.Manyeconomieswillremainlargelyunpreparedforunon-lineaimpacts:thepotentialtriggeringofanexusofseveralrelatedsioenvironmentalriskshasthepotentialt

45、ospeedupclimatechange,throughthereleaseofcarbonemissions,andamplifyrelatedimpacts,threateningclimate-vulnerablepopulations.Thecollectiveabilityofsocietiestoadaptcouldbeoverwhelmed,consideringthesheerscaleofpotentialimpactsandinfrastructureinvestmentrequirements,leavingsomecommunitiesandcountriesunab

46、letoabsorbboththeacuteandchroniceffectsofrapidclimatechange.Aspolarizationgrowsandtechnologicalrisksremainunchecked,4truth,willcomeunderpressureSocietalpolarizationfeaturesamongthetopthreerisksoverboththecurrentandtwo-yeartimehorizons,ranking#9overtheIongerterm.Inaddition,SocietalpolarizationandEcon

47、omicdownturnareseenasthemostinterconnected-andthereforeinfluential-risksintheglobalrisksnetwork(FigureD),asdriversandpossibleconsequencesofnumerousrisks.FIGURE BRisk categoriesI Economic Environmental GeopoliticalI SocietalI TechnologicalExtreme weatherAl generated misinformation and disinformation3

48、-Societal and/or political polarization46Cost-of-living crisis5.CyberattacksCurrentrisklandscapePleaseselectuptofiverisksthatybelievearemostlikelytopresentamaterialaisisonaglobalscalein2024.FIGURE CGlobalrisksrankedbyseverityovertheshortandlongtermPleaseestimatethelikelyimpact(severity)ofthefollowingrisksovera2-yearand10-yearperiod.RiskcategoriesIEconomicIEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnological2years10yearsMisinformationanddisinforma