世界经济论坛-转变能源需求（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、IncollaborationwithPwCWQRLDECONOMICF(DRUMTransformingEnergyDemandWHITEPAPERJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary41 Whytransformingenergydemandmatters52 Thethreeenergydemandlevers113 Businesssolutions-overallapproach134 Businesssolutions-selectedinterventionsforchange15inbuil

2、dings,industryandtransport4.1 Industry164.2 Buildings244.3 Transport295 Governmentleadership33Conclusion37Appendix38A1Modellingmethodology38Contributors40Endnotes44DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandn

3、dusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollatorativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereprodu

4、cedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January 2024TransformingEnergyDemandForewordAnaBotinExecutiveChairman,TheSantanderGroup;Chair,InternationalBusinessCouncilBobMorrtzGlobalChair,PwC;Member,InternationalBusinessCouncilOliv

5、ierSchwabManagingDirector,WorldEconomicForumAstheglobalenergysystemundergoesarapidtransformation,leadersacrossallsectorsneedtollaboratetoaelerateanenergytransitionthatcreatespositiveoutcomesforpeople,societyandtheplanet.Theprivatesectorcanplayaleadingroleindrivingthistransformation.Thatiswhyayearago

6、,theInternationalBusinessCouncil(IBC),agroupthattogetherrepresents3%ofglobalenergyuse,decidedtofocusonenergydemand.Thisisanunder-addressedareathatwillallowustoincreaseeconomicoutput,whilereducinggreenhousegasemissions(GHG)anddrivingupglobalaccesstoenergy.Ourresearchshowsthattherearemanytangibleactio

7、nsthatallbusinessescantaketodaytoactonenergydemand.Thepotentialofthisdemand-sideactionisextraordinary,offeringashort-term,cost-efficient31%reductionofdemand,sharedacrossalleconomicsectors.Thesegainsaredeliverablenow,atattractivereturns,needingnonewtechnology.Suchconcertedactionwouldunlockgrowthandpr

8、oductivitywhilegettingtheworldbackontracktomeetthetargetssetsbytheParisAgreement.Atthesametime,itwouldsupportdeliveryofthepledgebyover120countriesatCOP28todoubletheglobalaverageannualrateofenergyefficiencyimprovement.Thesefindingsshouldbeexcitingforallleaders,ingrowthandmaturemarketsalike,andwethank

9、alltheIBCmembersfortheirsupportindrivingthiswork.Ourambitionistogettheworldtoactasmuchonenergydemandassupplyitseffortstoreachnetzero.Wehopethispaperwillinspiremanyotherbusinessesandgovernmentstojointhiseffort.Thereisnotimetolose.ExecutivesummaryActionsonenergydemandcanbetakenbyallcompaniesnow,arepro

10、fitableandcanaccelerateprogresstowardsclimategoals.Thevalueofactiononenergydemandiscompelling:apossible31%reductioninenergyintensityandupto$2trillioninannualsavingsifmeasuresweretobetakenby2030(seeAppendix,A1:Methodology).Reducingenergyintensity-energyusedperunitofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)-wouldboos

11、tgrowthbyenablingpreviouslywastedorover-utilizedenergytoberedirectedtomoreproductiveactivities.Itwouldalsohelpmpaniessavecashandmaintaincompetitiveadvantagewhilereducingemissions.Thispaperoutlinesthevalueofactionsonenergydemandfromtheprivateandpublicsectorsandhowtodeliverthem.Actionsaredoabletoday,a

12、tattractivereturnswithexistingtechnology,andsoitisbelievedthisestablishesacompellingcasetoactasmuchonenergydemandassupplyinthejourneytonetzero.Findingawaytoreduceorevenreversethepaceofenergydemandgrowthwhilesupportingeconomicoutputiscritical.By2050,theworldspopulationwillgrowbytwobillion,andGDPisfor

13、ecasttodouble.Emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiesneedabundantandlow-costenergytoenablegrowthandmeetdevelopmentgoals.Simultaneously,theworldistargetingsupplydecarbonization.Actingondemandandsupplysimultaneouslyisthebestwaytoachievethesechanges.Actingonenergyconsumptionisdoable,affordableandprofitab

14、le.Thisresearchshowsthatallcompaniesandcountriescanuseexistingleverstoreduceenergyintensity.Acrossbuildings,industryandtransport(BIT),InternationalBusinessCouncil(IBC)examplesillustratethattheseactions,wheresupportedbyappropriatepublicpolicy,canenabletheworldtoreduceitsenergyneedsbyapproximatelyathi

15、rdwhilefreeingfurthereconomicoutput.Affordabilityisalsoclear,withinterventionspotentiallyfullypaidbackgloballywithinadecade,drivingestimatedannualsavingsintherangeof$2trillion.Threeleverscandeliverthischange.First,t,energysavings-operationalimprovementinterventionsfundedthroughoperatingexpenditure(O

16、pEx).Resultsaretypicallyimmediatebutoftenoverlookedastheyrequirecoordinatingmanyinterventionsacrossanorganizationandconstantenergycostimprovement.Energyefficiencypoolsmeasuresunderdirectcompanycontrolthatrequirecapitalexpenditure(CapEx).Together,savingsandefficienciesofferbusinessesthelower-hangingf

17、ruitandatleasthalfoftheimprovementsinenergyintensitythatthisresearchhasidentified.ThefinalleverisuvaluechainCollaborationn,whereworkingdirectlywithsuppliersandbusinesspartnersofferscompanyagencyoverenergyimpact,reducingcostandgettingaheadoftheracetonetzero.Eachsectorneedsa,*roadmaptoguidecompanyandg

18、overnmentaction.Companyandnationalenergytransitionplansareneededtocapturethebenefitsofmanagingenergynsumptionwhileintegratingsupply-sideactions.Businessesacrosstheenergydemandandsupplyspectrumwillneedtoworktogetherwithgovernmenttodeveloptheseplansandincreaseawarenessoftheroutesandresultsavailabletoa

19、ddressbarrierstoaction.Developingtheseplansistheessentialnextstepinraisingawarenessandgettingbehindactiononenergydemand.AtCOP28,over120countriespledgedtodoublethepaceofenergyefficiencyimprovement.TheIBCcanbealeadingprivatesectorgrouptosupportcountriesintheirambition.Whytransformingenergydemandmatter

20、sActionsonenergydemandcanreduceenergyconsumptionbyupto31%,savingupto$2trillionperannum.Whatifabusinesscouldreduceitsannualoperatingcostsby10%withinthreeyears?Whatwouldbetheimplicationsforacompany,sstockpriceifitcouldincreasemarginsonasustainedbasisby200-300basispoints?Allwhilesimultaneouslybuildingb

21、othmeasurableprogressonreducinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsanddeliveringgreaterresilienceinoperations.Thesearenottrickquestions,butarebasedonrealexamplesfromIBCmembers.Theanswerliesattherootofthisstudy:transformingenergydemand.FIGURE1TheenergytriangleSustainabilityandclimatechangeTimeframeJustandaffo

22、rdabilityEnergysecurityandresilienceDemandIndustryUrbanandbuildingsTransportDeliveryTransmissionPipelinesInfrastructureSupplyRenewableNuclearFossilfuelsEnablers:、Policy,finance,collaborationtechnology,digitalizationandworkforceGeopolitics/EnergytransitionEconomiesSource:WorldEcomicForum,FosteringEff

23、ectiveEnergyTransition,2023.Note:Thetrianglerepresentstheenergytrilemma-theimperativeofdeliveringajustenergytransitionwhileensuringaffordability,securityandsustainability.To date, there has been too heavy a reliance on governments and the energy industry, not the wider economy, to deliver net zero.T

24、heproblemTheenergytransitioncreatesimmenseandgrowingtensionsbetweentheimperativesofsecurity,affordabilityandsustainability(seeFigure1).SecurityOnenergysecurity,thefirstchallengeistosimultaneouslymaintainasecureandstablesupplyofenergyamidanincreasinglyvolatilegeopoliticalsituation,allwhiletransformin

25、gtodayshydrocarbon-dominatedsupply.In2021-22,Europegrappledwithenergyshortagesandpricesthathavethreatenedtheindustrialbaseandforcedgovernmentstoprocuretheiroilandgasfromtheflowsnormallydestinedtootheremergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDE),1whichinturnhadtoresorttohighercoalconsumptionandoverall

26、facehigherenergyprices.AffordabilityThesecondchallenge,affordability,istoensurethatenergyiseconomicnotjustforbusinessesbutforsocietyingeneral.Whileforecastsdifferonthelevelofenergydemandin2050(seeFigure2),theexpecteddoublingofglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andtheadditionoftwobillionpeoplewillintensi

27、fypressureonenergysupplysystems,2particularlyinEMDE,whichareresponsibleforapproximately60%ofcurrentdemand.Thesemarketsneedaclearrangeofroutestoeconomicgrowth,whichincludeabundantaccesstoaffordablecleanenergy.3Ifthefuturelevelofenergydemandisnotmetbyadequatesupply,itcouldleadtohigherpricesandobstacle

28、stogrowthandcompetitiveness.SustainabilityThethirdchallenge,sustainability,istomeetthisgrowthinenergydemandinawaythatkeepstheworldontracktomeetthe2050ParisAgreement.Evenwithanassumedthree-foldgrowthinrenewableenergy,scenariosforecastasignificantshortfallincleanenergysupplyby2050(seeFigure3),whichcou

29、ldbemetwithmorefossilfuel-basedenergy.Thisisas,ifnotmore,trueinEMDE,duetothelackofadequaterenewablesupplychains.Todate,themajorityofdebateandactionhasbeenfocusedongovernmentsandenergycompaniesdrivingchangesinenergysupply.Thishasresultedinremarkablechangesintheenergysystem,withrapidincreasesinemissio

30、ns-freeanddecentralisedelectricitygeneration.However,thetrajectoryoftheenergytransitionremainsoff-trackcomparedtoclimateanddevelopmentgoals,hinderedbyissuessuchasslowpermittingandpooraccesstofinance.Therefore,whileactiononenergysupplyremainscrucial,itwillbedifficultforittobetheansweralone.FIGURE 2Fo

31、recastdemandgrowthto2050Percentagegrowthintotalenergyconsumptionacrossdifferingglobalscenarios(sample)%,baseyearto2050.Current policies . Further actionSources:InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),NetZeroRoadmap:AGlobalPathwaytoKeepthe1.5CGoalinReach,2023;Shell,TheEnergySecurityScenarios,2019:ExxonMobil,E

32、xxonMobiIGlobalOutlook,2023;SchneiderElectric,Backto2050:1.5CCismorefeasiblethanwethink,2021:Equinor,2023EnergyPerspectives,2023;bp,bpEnergyOutlook2023Edition,2023;IEA1WorldEnergyOutlook2023.2023;TotaIEnergies1TotaIEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022,2022.FIGURE3IShortfallinrenewableenergysupplyvsdemandfromco

33、mmercialsourcesGlobalcommercial*totalfinalconsumptionandrenewableenergysupplyandIEAstatedpolicies(STEPS)scenario,exajoules(EJ),2022-205075%42%304Supplyshortfall3922022Supplyshortfall227752050Commercialenergydemand.Renewableenergysupply*AIIenergydemandfrommmercialbuildings,industryandtransport,exclud

34、ingresidentialbuildingsandroadtransport.Sources:IEA1WorkiEnergyOUtIoOk2023,2023.Thesolution:actiononenergyconsumptionalongsidesupplyItis,therefore,vitaltoaddressenergydemandalongsidesupply,reducingtheenergyintensityofcurrentactivityandfuturegrowth.Demand-sideactionisanareawherethebusinessandsocialca

35、sesfordemand-sideactionoverlapclosely.Suchactioncanincreaseproductivity,whileunlockingaesstoenergyandeconomicgrowth.Thisisdonebyreallocatingpreviouslywastedorunnecessarily-usedenergytonewconsumersand/ornewuses.Afterall,thecheapestformofenergyisenergythatisnotused.Theresalsoaclearopportunitycost-anyd

36、elayinactionwillforceincreasedenergyspendingandcontinuedmissingofclimategoals.Thegreatnewsisthattransformingenergydemandisdoableandaffordablenow.Allcompanies,regardlessofsector,cantapintoexisting,affordabletechnologiestoreduceenergyintensity-thatis,usinglessenergytocreatethesame(orgreater)output.Thi

37、sinturnwillreduceemissionsintensity(thevolumeofemissionscreatedinmanufacturingaproductorprovidingaservice)duetoenergy-relatedemissionsbeingreduced.Measurestotackleenergyconsumptionarealsobeneficialacrossallmarkets,asdeliveringhigheroutputwithlowerenergyuseisauniversalgood.However,benefitswillvaryini

38、mportancebetweenmarkets.Forexample,indevelopedeconomies,lowerenergyintensityhelpstoenhancecompetitivenessthroughlowertotalenergycostwhileattenuatingenvironmentalrisks.InEMDE1takingactiontomanageenergydemandaswellasfocusingonthesupplycanimproveaccesstosecureenergy,improvingtheabilitytoattractinvestme

39、ntwhileofferingtheopportunitytoavoidlow-efficiencylegacysystemsseenindevelopedeconomies.SizeoftheenergydemandprizeThisstudybreaksglobalenergydemandintouBITs-buildings,industryandtransport.Together,theseaountfor94%ofglobaldemand.4Achievable6interventionshavebeenidentifiedacrosstheseareasthatwouldredu

40、ceoverallenergyintensitybyaround31%relativetocurrentlevels(seeFigure4),withfurther,harder-to-deliverinterventionsincreasingthisto42%(seeFigure6).FIGURE 4Short-termreductionpotentialofenergydemandactions(achievablescenarioonly) 2022 global energy demand by verticalPotentialenergyintensityreductionbyv

41、ertical(achievable Achievable is defined as interventions that are currently technologically available at scale with associated data available on their energy intensity impact; 4,Percentage does not total 31%due to rounding.Sources: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2023,2023.)Potentialenergyintensityreduct

42、ionforthewholeeconomy(achievable*)31%442EJ21%6%Other4%Other26%Transport30%Buildings38%Industry5%Transport12%Buildings11%Industry2022 demandIndustryBuildingsTransport-In(1),individualinterventionsbyverticalareidentified(e.g.installingmoreefficientelectricmotors),andtheirpotentialimpactonvertical-wide

43、energyintensityissummed.-Togaintheoverallimpactofthesechangesonglobaldemand,thesearethenscaledbytheproportionofenergydemandthateachverticalrepresents(2).Inaddition,anaverageintensityreductionisappliedtosectorsnotconsideredindepth(definedasother)-Thisresultsin(3),thepotentialcombinedimpactofindividua

44、linterventionsonglobalenergyintensity.Tounderstandhowtheseinterventionswouldaffecttheworldovertime,thisreportconsiderswhatwouldoccuriftheseinterventionsweregloballyenactedby2030(seeAppendix,A1:Methodology).Thiswasachievedbyfirstmodellingenergydemandin2030ifnoenergyintensityimprovementweremadebetween

45、2022and2030(noefficiencyscenario,seeFigure5).FIGURE5IForecastofunoefficiencyscenario,20302022energydemand:Totalenergyconsumed,2022Impactofmakingnoenergyefficiencyprogress2030noefficiency-scenario:Forecast2030energydemandifnofurtherefficiencygainsaremadeSource:IEA1WorldEnergyOutlook2023,2023.Ifapplie

46、dtothenoefficiencyscenarioin2030,theseinterventionswouldallowoutputtobemaintainedwithlessenergy,resultinginareductioninenergyintensityaround19%belowthelevelsforecastifcurrentpoliciesareenacted(seeFigure6).Onanannualbasis,thiswouldcorrespondtoanimprovementinenergyintensityof4.6%perannum.Suchgainsarea

47、headofthetargetsetbytheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)andthelntematialRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)ofdoublingthecurrentratetoover4%toreachnetzero.Asaresult,ifdelivered,theseinten/entionswouldputtheworldaheadofthetargetsintheParisAgreements.FIGURE 6Impactofproposedinterventionsonglobalenergydemand,20306EJ,2030,globalForecastenergydemandin2030ifhistoricalrateofenergyefficiencyimprovementismaintainedNet zero scenario f