世界银行-2024年世界经济形势与展望（英）-2024.docx

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1、WorldEconomicSituationandProspectsTheWo11tmcoU+41-nn-917S806-1cgomncta.ofgECAClavsfCatsts,).scmtivsSscistaiQUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionfofAfficaMsnslikIl6vsnmsP.O.Do.001AddisAbabaEthiopiaU+nSl-ll-SSllnl_1scainTomnsca.oigUNECETatianaMolcsan,).scmtivsSscfstafQUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionfofEuio

2、pePalaisdesNationsCH-InllCsnsva10Switzsflanwt.+41-nn-9174444-1mnscs_inTomn.ofgECLACJocManmslSalazaf-Xifinackc,).scmtivsSscfstaiQEconomicCommissionfofLatinAmeHcaandtheCafibbean6v.DagHammafckjl,477VitacufaSantiago,CkilsChile1.+S6-n-nnl0n00011cscs：alcs：al.ofgESCAP6fmiaSalciak61icjakana.).scmtivsSsdstaf

3、Q)conomicanSocialCommiccionTof6ciaantksPacificUnitedNationsBuildingRajaamnsfnNok6vsnmsBangkokIOnOOThailand1.+66-n-n881n4臼scca:ccacmn.oigESCWARolaDackti,).scmtivsSscistaiQEconomicandSocialCommissionfoWesteinAsiaP.O.Do.ll-8$7$Riasl-SolkSNationc,nn4AllfightsfesefvedForewordTksnn4sitionoTtksUnitsNationc

4、rWoilrwcoo,2icSitatioalsconomicins.ManQafsfowninginst,witkmoistkanatkifatlickoTcficic.Invsctmsntinclimatsactionancmctainalssvslo：msnticTallingWosTmllQckoft.Hmngsian:ovsitQafsontkslies.6nglowingivicioncstwssnComntfiscansconomiscafsnsvsntingansffsetivsfsc:oncs.6ctkicfs:oftmakscclsaf,nn4ic：fojsctstosan

5、otkstomgkQsaf.Slmggickgloalgfowtkic:fojsctstoclowTmftksLInvsctmsntwillfsmainwsak.Tksstcficicwillcontinmstoc：ifal,acstcsivicsoligationc(sacknswksigktc.6nsvactatingconflictcanSccalatings.tfsmswsatksfafsfingingmncsftaintQanficktotksgloalsconomQ.Tksiscmlt:svslo:msntslaQsansnis.nn4mmctstksQsafwksnwssakom

6、toTtkicfivscmctainalssvslo:msntanclimatsaction,an：mttksgloalsconomQonaCtiongsfgowtk:atkToiall.Wsmmctmilontksnogisccmasintks:actQsaftowafcanSDCStimmlmcoTatIsact?$00illion:sfQsafinaffoalslong-tsfmfinancingToiinvsctmsntcincmctainalssvslo：msntanclimatsaction.Tkatinclmscincsacingtksca:italacsoTMmltilatsf

7、alDsvsloimsntDankcanckangingtksimcinsccmoslctoIsvsiagsTafmofsnivatsfinancsatfsaconalscocttosvslo：ingcomntfisc.IticalcotimsToiansffsetivsstwofkomtmsckanicmtoTfssm:ficcalc：acsTofinvsctmsntinksaltk,smcation,cocialnotsction,scsntjoc,igitalinTfactfmctmfsanfsnswalssnsfgQ.TksSmmmitoTtksFmtmisinSs:tsmsinn4w

8、illsa:ivotalo:oitmnitQtoavancssTofmcoTtoaQ,comtats,QcTmnctionalanmnjmctintsfnationalfinancialcQctsm,:foviingaCtfongsfTomnationToftksgloalsconomQ.Insa：aft.Innn4,wsmmctcsizstkso:otmnitQtocfsatsamofsinclmcivs,fscilisntgloalsconomQtkatwofkeTofsvsQons,svsQwkss.6nt6nioCmtsffscUnitsNationcSscistaiQ-Csnsfal

9、ExplanatorynotesSymbolsusedinthetablesGEPUGlobalEconomicPolicyUncertainty(Index).ThreedotsindicatethatdataarenotavailableorarenotGNIgrossnationalincomeseparatelyreported.GWPgrossworldproduct-Adashindicatesthattheamountisnilornegligible.G20GroupofTwentyAhyphenindicatesthattheitemisnotapplicable.HIPCH

10、eavilyIndebtedPoorCountries(Initiative)-Aminussignindicatesdeficitordecrease,exceptasindicated.Afullstopisusedtoindicatedecimals.IDBInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank/Aslashbetweenyearsindicatesacropyearorfinancialyear,IEAInternationa!EnergyAgencyforexample,2023/24.IFCInternationalFinanceCorporation-Useo

11、fahyphenbetweenyears,forexample,2023-2024,signifiesILOInternationalLabourOrganizationthefullperiodinvolved,includingthebeginningandendyears.IMFInternationalMonetaryFundIPCCIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeKeTerenCeSanatermsIRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgencyReferencetodollars($)indicatesUnit

12、edStatesdollars,LDCsleastdevelopedcountriesunlessotherwisestated.LHSleft-handscaleReferencetobillionsindicatesonethousandmillion.LLDCslandlockeddevelop!ngcountries Referencetotonsindicatesmetrictons,unlessotherwisestated. Annualratesofgrowthorchange,unlessotherwisestated.MDBmultilateraldevelopmentba

13、nkMDRIMultilateralDebtReliefInitiativerefertoannualcompoundrates.MVIMultidimensionalVulnerabilityIndexDetailsandpercentagesintablesdonotnecessarilyaddtoNEETnotinemployment,educationOrtrainingtotals,becauseofrounding.OCHAUnitedNationsOfficefortheCoordinationForcountryclassifications,seethestatistical

14、annex.ofHumanitarianAffairsDatapresentedinthispublicationincorporateinformationODAofficialdevelopmentassistanceavailableasatIDecember2023.AbbreviationsOECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentOPECOrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountriesAfCFTAAfricanContinentalFreeTradeAreaPMIPurchasingM

15、anagers,IndexAlartificialintelligencePPPpurchasingpowerparityAPPassetpurchaseprogrammeQEquantitativeeasingASEANAssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsQTquantitativetighteningBISBankforInternationalSettlementsRaDresearchanddevelopmentBoEBankofEngIandRHSright-handscalebpsbasispointsSDGsSustainableDevelopme

16、ntGoalsCGEcomputablegeneralequilibrium(model)SDRsspecialdrawingrightsCISCommonwealthofIndependentStatesSIDSsmallislanddevelopingStatesCOP28TWenty-eighthConferenceofthePartiestotheUnitedUNDESAUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeUN-OHRLLSOfficeofth

17、eHighRepresentativefortheLeastDevelopedDACDevelopmentAssistanceCommitteeCountries,LandlockedDevelopingCountriesandSmallEBRDEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevetopmentIslandDevelopingStatesECAEconomicCommissionforAfricaUNCTADUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentECBEuropeanCentralBankUNDPUnited

18、NationsDevelopmentProgrammeECLACEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheUNECEUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEuropeCaribbeanUNEPUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeEMBIEmergingMarketsBondIndexUNESCOUnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalESCAPEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsiaandthePacificOrgani

19、zationESCWAEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsiaUNICEFUnitedNationsChildrensFundFAOFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsUNWTOUnitedNationsWorldTourismOrganizationFDIforeigndirectinvestmentWEFWorldEconomicForumFedUnitedStatesFederalReserveWEFMWorldEconomicForecastingModelGCCCperationCo

20、uncilfortheArabStatesoftheGulfWFPWorldFoodProgrammeGDPgrossdomesticproductWTOWorldTradeOrganizationAcknowledgementsTks Wo, tmcooic SitatioGctw nn4 ic a (s:oit :iomcs Q tks Units Nationc Dszaftmsnt oT Jconomic an Social 6ffaifc (UN D)S6), in :aftnsfcki: witk tks Units Nationc ConTsisncs on Tfas an Ds

21、vsloimsnt (UNCT6D) an tks fivs Units Nationc Csgional commiccionc: tks Economic Commiccion Tof 6Tfica ()C6), )conomic Commiccion Tof )mio:s (UN)C), )conomic Commiccion Tof Latin 6msfica an tks Cafisan ()CL6C), )conomic an Social Commiccion Toi 6cia an tks Pacific ()SC6P an )conomic an Social Commicc

22、ion Tof Wsctsfn 6cia QSCW6). Tks Units Nationc Offics oT tks Higk Rszfscsntativs Tof tks Lsact Dsvslo:s Comntiisc, Lanlocks Dsvsloring Comntiisc an Small Iclan Dsvsloiing Statsc (UN-OHRLLS) an tks Units Nationc Wo Tomiicm Oiganization (UNWTO) alco contiimts to tks fs:oft. Tks Tofscactc nscsnts in tk

23、s (s:ot aw on tks Wofl )conomic Foiscacting Mosl oT UN D)S6 ac wsll ac in:mtc Tfom tks Units Nationc sgional commiccionc.Unsf tks gsnsfal gmiancs oT Li Jmnkma, Unwsi-SscistaiQ-Csnsial Toi )conomic an Social 6ffaifc; Navi HaniT, 6ccictant SscfstaiQ-Csnsfal Toi )conomic Dsvsloimsnt; an Skantanm Mmkksi

24、jss, Diisctoi oT tks )conomic 6nalQcic an PolicQ Divicion ()6PD) oT UN D)S6, Hami Racki, CkisT oT tks Cloal Jconomic Monitofing Dfanck in )6PD, ls an cooiinats tks witing oT tks fs:oit witk a cois tsam oT amtkofc Tfom tks Dfanck. TksQ com:fics Cfigof 6gaskian, Ian Co., Dsina Dogan, 6n(sa Dominovic,

25、Zksnactian Vsigafa, an Yacmkica Yamamoto.Tks Tollowing contimtoic to tks is:oit afs mlQ acknowlsgs:Hoi Wai Jackis Cksng, Ksnnstk Ivsicsn, Pok LQnn Ng, an Olivsi Sckwank Tiom UN DESA; Tafo Dosl, StsTan Ccofac, SoTfa Domfngmsz, Clovic Ffsifs, an tks Iats Janvisi Nkmimnziza Tfom UNCTAD; Mskat )lksls:i,

26、 Lss )vsftc, CkaoQi Hm, Hoisctons KaQicka Ckavmla, Lsfato MafQ Litcscans, an Naia Dsnics Omsfaogo Tfom ECA; Joc Palacfn Lmcio Tfom UNECE; Ni.is 6a(msz, Skmvojit Dansfjss, Kiatkani Pongianick, an Vatckafin Sifimansstkam Tfom ESCAP； 6f:Q 6tamian, Jan Cacka, Mokams )1 Moctaf Mokams )1 HaCSns, 6kms Momm

27、mi, an SomfaQa Zsin Tfom ESCWA; Miniva CkimQs Tfom UN-OHRLLS; an Sana Caivao, Micksl Jmlian, an Javisf Rmsccac Tfom UNWTO. Tks ECLAC contfimtion ic acs on tks tmcosnsfits Tfom scsafck Q ins：snsnt s.：sftc Kfic Cfonswal, Mingzs Li, Yiliang Li an Lmovica Tmicini, an Tfom iccmccionc at an s.:sft gfom: m

28、ssting ksl in Nsw Yoik on n-nl Jmns nn.Pmlicationc an aminictfativs cm:o(t WSfS :fovis Q Racksl Dafmckinac, Lsak C. KsnnsQ, Smzstts C. Limckocf Csfaf Fiancic RsQsc, an Cas Scslta Tiom UN DESA. Tks fs：oft wac sits Q Tsffi Lofs.SUSTAINABLEIQ警梦DEVELOPMENTOWMLOReduce inequality within and among countrie

29、sMake cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainableEnsure sustainable consumption and production patternsTake urgent action to combat climate change and its impactsStrengthen the means Ofimplementation and revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentConserv

30、e and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable developmentProtect, restore and promote sustainable use Ofterrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity lossPromote peaceful and inclu

31、sive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levelsExecutiveSummary62agilggsiligcgmasksMkgil;igisksakv,lsconomQ:fovsmo(sfscilisnttkans.:sctsinnnamiCignificantmonstaQtigktsninganIingsfing:olicQmncstain

32、tiscwo11wis,svsnacckockca11cingTfomconflictanclimatsckangswomgktkavocontksIivscanlivslikoocoTmillionc,Tmftksfjso:afizingnogfscctowafccmctainalssvslo：msnt.SsvsfalIafgssvslo：ssconomiscckowssmaikalsscilisncs,witkfomctIaommafkstccm:oitingconcmmsfc:sningsc:itscka(:monstaiQtigktsning.6ttkscamstims,inflati

33、ongfamallQsclinsinmoctfsgioncontksackoTIowsfsnsigQanToo:ficsc,allowingcsntfalankctoclowof:amcsintsfsctiatskiksc.TkicvsnssfoTfscilisncs,kowsvsf,mackcotkckoit-tsimfickcanCtimctmfalvmlnsfailitisc.UnsflQing:fics:sccmscafsctillslsvatsinmanQcomntfisc.6TmftksfSccalationoTconflictcintksMils)act:ocsctksficko

34、Ticim：tingsnsigQmafkstcanfsnswinginflationafQ:sccmscwoflwis.6ctksgloalsconomQfacscToitkslaggssffsctoTckaf:intsfsctfatsincfsacsc,tksmajoisvslo：scomntiQcsntialankckavscignallstksifintsntiontokss:intsfsctiatsckigksfToiIongsf.Tks:ioc:sctcoTa:folongs：sfiooTkigksfoffowingcoctcantigktsfcfsitconitioncnscsnt

35、ctfongksawincToiawolsconomQtkaticcalswitkkigkIsvslcoTstmtalcoinnssoTincfsacsinvsctmsnt,notonlQtoIscmccitatsgfowtkmtalcotofigktclimatsckangsanaccslsfats:fogfscctowactksSmctainalsDsvslozmsntCoalc(SDCc).Mofsovsf,tigktfinancialconitionc,com：lswitkagfowingfickoTgso:oliticalTfagmsntation,:ocsincfsacingfic

36、kctogloaltfasaninmctfial:fomction.6gaincttkicackfo:oTIingsiingickcanmncstaintisc,gloalCDPgowtkicnojsctstoclowTfomansctimatsn.7:sfcsntinnnton.4：sfcsntinnn4.CfowtkicTofscacttoim:fovsmosiatslQton.7：sicsntinnOn$mtwillfsmainslowtks:fs-:ansmictsngfowtkfatsoT.0:sicsnt.Wkilstkswo11sconomQavoistkswofct-cacsc

37、csnafiooTafscsccioninnn,a:iotfacts:siiooTlowgfowtkIoomclafgs.Cfowtk:foc:sctcTofmanQsvslo:ingcomntfisc,SczsciallQvmlnsfalsanlow-incomscomntfisc,kavsismainswsak,makingaTmllIscovsfQoT:ansmicIoccscsvsimofsslmcivs.MftkgislowkowitkgkgvgloygkgcoomigsTkssconomQoTtksU-:siTofmssmaikalQwsllmfingtks:actQsaf,mtg

38、fowtkics.：sctstoscslsfatsTiomansctimatsn.$:sicsntinnnto1.4:sfcsntinnn4.Romctconcmmsfc：sningontksackoTctfongkomcskolalancscksstcanscilisntlaomiankomcingmaikstccm:oftstkssttsi-tkan-s.:scts:SrroirnanCSinnn.Dsc:itsaggisccivsmonstaiQtigktsningQtksFssfalRscsfvs,tksmnsm:loQmsntfatsctooatonlQ.7：sicsntintkst

39、kimctkomcs:iicscooctsancmctainstksnstwoftkoTkomsownsfc,s.sitingactfongwsaltksffsctancm:：oftingkigkIsvslcoTkomcskolc:sning.TkicmaQckangsfo:anSffsctivsIQfsmcskomcskolnstwoftk.6miTallingkomcskolcavingc,kigkintssctiatsc,anagamallQCoTtsninglaommakst,concmmsc:sningics.:sctstowsaksninnn4aninvsctmsntic:fojsctstofsmainclmggick.WkilstkslikslikoooTakailaningkacsclinsconcisfalQ,tksUnitsStatscsconomQwillTacsCigniflcantowncis(ickcTfomstsiofatinglaomf,komcingannancialmafkstc.E,ioygTacscaCkallsngingsconomicomtlookamictillslsvatsinflationankigkintsfsct