世界银行-萨赫勒地区适应性社会保护系统的压力测试（英）-2023.10..docx

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1、STRESSTESTINGADAPTIVESOCIALPROTECTIONSYSTEMSINTHESAHELByAlineCoudouel,SilviaFuselliandMiraSaidiSaheladaptiveSOCIALPROTECTIONPROGRAMABOUTTHESAHELADAPTIVESOCIALPROTECTIONTRUSTFUNDTheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP)isfundedbyamulti-donortrustfund(MDTF)withcontributionsfromtheDenmarkRoyalMini

2、stryofForeignAffairs;theAgenceFranaisedeDdveloppement(AFD);theGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(BMZ);andtheUnitedKingdomForeign,Commonwealth,andDevelopmentOffice(FCDO).ItsobjectiveistosupportsixSahelianCountries-BurkinaFaso1Chad,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegalinbuildingASPsy

3、stemsprimarilytohelpvulnerablehouseholdsadapttotheimpactsofclimatechangebutalsotoothercovariateshocks.TheSASPPismanagedbytheSocialProtectionandJobsunitoftheWest-CentralAfricaregionaldepartmentoftheWorldBank.MHNtSTftV 0 FMEICN AFFAIR! O* DEMMARKDbankgroupThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwith

4、externalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumerespon

5、sibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthele

6、galstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.TABLEOFCONTENTSForeword4Acknowledgements5Authors6ExecutiveSummary7OverallAs

7、sessment10ArrangementsandPartnerships12DataandInformationSystems13ProgramsandDeliverySystems14Finance15Abbreviations161.istOfTabIes171.istOfFigures17ListofBoxes181. Introduction191 .1TheSahel:RegionattheIntersectionofOverlappingShks1912 AdaptiveSocialProtection2113 Methodology252. ProgressontheFourB

8、uildingBlocksforASP:AMixedPicture2721 Overview2722 InstitutionalArrangementsandPartnerships:KeyFindings2823 DataandInformationSystems:KeyFindings3424 ProgramsandDeliverySystems:KeyFindings4225 Finance:KeyFindings503. ConclusionsandRecommendations56AppendixA:SocialProtectionStressTestToolanditsApplic

9、ationintheSahel62References72EndNotes75FOREWORDTheStressTestingAdaptiveSocialProtectionSystemsintheSahelreportexaminestheexistingsocialprotectionsystemsintheSahelandidentifieselementsthatneedstrengtheningtoaddresstheneedsintheregion.TheworkforthisreportbeganduringtheCOVID-19pandemic,whichtestedtheca

10、pacityoftheadaptivesocialprotectionsystemsintheSahelcountries.Theeconomicconsequencesofthepandemicwereextensive,particularlyforvulnerableandpoorhouseholdsintheSahel1andreversedyearsofpovertyreductionefforts.WhiletheSahelcountriesareshowingsignsofenomicrecoveryfromthepandemic,theycontinuetofaceamulti

11、tudeofongoingcrises,includingglobalchallenges,suchastheinflationandeconomicfalloutfromthewarinUkraine,andlocalizedshockslinkedtoinsecurityandworseningclimatetheSahelrecentlyexperiencedveryseveredroughtsandfoodinsecurity,alongsidemorefrequentandsevereflooding.Theseincreasinglychallengingcontextscallf

12、oreffectiveadaptivesialprotection(ASP)toolsandstrategies.ASPisacriticaltooltoreachtheWorldBanksgoalofaworldfreeofpovertyonalivableplanet.Indeed,tofaceworseningclimatechange,increasinglyfrequentclimate-relatedshocks,andeconomicshocksfromanevermoreglobalizedworld,itisessentialtohavesystemsinplacethatc

13、anbuildtheresilienceofthepoorestandmostvulnerablehouseholdsaheadofshocks,aswellasprotectthem,theirproductiveinvestments,andtheirhumancapitalfromthenegativeimpactsofshocks.Inrecentyears,theSahelcountries,withthesupportoftheWorldBankandtheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP),havebeguntoinvestin

14、adaptivesocialprotectionsystems.Governmentshaveestablishednationalsafetynetprograms,whichofferregularsupporttosomeofthepoorestsegmentsofthepopulation.ASPsystemsweredesignedfortheseprogramstoscaleup,incoordinationwithhumanitarianpartners,torespondtoshockssuchasfoodinsecurityandpandemics.Whiletheirrea

15、chandscaleremainlimited,theirsuccessesarenottobeminimized,andsomesuccessfulelementshaveinspiredothercountriesinAfricaandbeyond.ThisreportdrawslessonsfromtheASPtrajectoryintheSahel.Itusesthestresstestmethodology,designedbytheWorldBank,toassesstheabilityofsocialprotectionsystemstorespondtoshocks.There

16、portprovidesarichoverviewoftheexistingsystemsintheSahelalongthefourbuildingblocksofASP.First,itexaminestheinstitutionalarrangementsforASPandshockresponseintheregion,andexploreslinkagesacrossgovernmentagenciesandexternalpartners,whichplayanimportantroleinrespondingtoshocks.Second,itprovidesanoverview

17、ofthedataandinformationsystemsintheSahelcountries,includingareviewoftheachievementsinbuildingsocialregistries,whichcanbeleveragedbymultipleactorsformoreefficientandeffectiveinterventions.Third,thereportfocusesonprogramsanddeliverysystemshighlightinginnovationsineachcountryalongthedeliverychain.Final

18、ly,itreviewsthelimitedprogressindevelopingASPfinancingmechanisms.Buildingontheprogressandlimitations,thereportconcludeswithasetofrecommendationsforgovernments,donors,andimplementingpartnerstofurtherinvestinASP.WewelcometheStressTestingAdaptiveSocialProtectionSystemsintheSahelreportasanimportantmiles

19、toneinthedevelopmentofASPsystemsintheregionandbeyond.OusmaneDiagana,RegionalVicePresidentforWesternandCentralAfrica,WorldBankACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThisStressTestingAdaptiveSocialProtectionSystemsintheSahelReportbuildsonsustaineddialoguewiththegovernmentsofBurkinaFaso,Chad,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegalo

20、nthedevelopmentofnationalAdaptiveSocialProtectionsystems.TheauthorsaregratefultotheparticipantsintheworkshopsorganizedinthesixcountriesbetweenOctober2021andSeptember2022toapplytheSocialProtectionStressTestTool.Theauthorswishtoextendparticularthankstothegovernmentofficialsinallsixcountriesandcolleagu

21、esfromtheWorldFoodProgramme(WFP)teamsinBurkinaFaso,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegalandtheUnitedNationsChildrensFund(UNICEF)teamsinBurkinaFaso1Mali,andNiger.TheauthorsaremostgratefultoEdwardArchibaldforhisroleindistillingtheinsightsfromthesixnationalreports.Hemasterfullyidentifiedthereportskeyfinding

22、sfromtheregionsexperiencetodateandhelpedtoshapethereportsrecommendationsforgovernments,donorsandimplementingpartners.TheauthorsarealsothankfultocolleaguesintheWorldBankfortheircontributionstothereport,includingLuisAlberroEncinas,MoukenetAzoukalne,ChristianBodewig,StephanieBrunelin,GeoffreyBaeumlin,S

23、ilviaConi,DieynabaDiallo,SebastianGeschwind,RebekkaE.Grun,AnneHilger1DjieSita,DianeAntoinetteKiemdeTraore,JulianKoschorke5MatthieuLefebvre,FelixLung,MahamaneMalikiAmadou,FranckMuller1CelineMbaipeurNenodji1SnjezanaPlevko,ChristopheRockmore,MahamaneMourtalaSani1SamantaSarriaCapape1DameSeekThiam,Kalilo

24、uSylla,andClaudiaZambraTaibo.TheauthorsarealsogratefultoCorinnaKreidlerforreviewingthedraftandprovidingdetailedguidance.ThestudywaseditedbySarahPatellaandtypesetbyRodolpheMuller.ThisstudywascarriedoutundertheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP),andtheauthorsaregratefultotheSASPPdonorstheGerma

25、nFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(BMZ)1theAgenceFranpaisedeDdveloppement(FrenchDevelopmentAgency,AFD),theDenmarkRoyalMinistryofForeignAffairs(DANIDA),theUnitedKingdomForeign,CommonwealthandDevelopmentOffice(FCDO)andtoBoutheinaGuermaziandMohammedDalilEssakalioftheWorldBankAfricaReg

26、ionalIntegrationUnit,whichguidestheSASPP.AUTHORSAlineCoudouelisaLeadEconomistintheWestandCentralAfricaUnitoftheSocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.ShecurrentlyworksastheManageroftheSahelAdaptiveSocialProtectionProgram(SASPP).Hertechnicalandoperationalexpertisecoversthedifferentpillar

27、sofsocialprotection-socialassistance,socialinsurance,andlabormarketsaswellashumandevelopment,gender,andpovertyreductionmorebroadly.Herexperiencespansmultipleregions,withaparticularfocusonLatinAmerica(Colombia,DominicanRepublic,Mexico,Nicaragua,andPanama),Africa(Guinea,Malawi,Mauritania,Senegal,andth

28、eSahelregion),SouthAsia(BangladeshandNepal),andEuropeandCentralAsia(Uzbekistan).Earlierinhercareer,AlineworkedattheUNICEFInnocentiResearchCenter,withafocusonwomenandchildreninCentralAsiaandEurope.AlineholdsaPhDineconomicsfromtheEuropeanUniversityInstituteinFlorence,Italy.SilviaFuselliisanExtendedTer

29、mConsultantintheWestandCentralAfricaUnitoftheSocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.Shehasextensiveexperienceonadaptationstothedesign,delivery,andimplementationofsocialsafetynetsincontextsoffragility,conflict,andviolence(FCV).HeroperationalexperienceextendstovariouscountriesintheCentral

30、AfricanandSahelregion,particularlytheCentralAfricanRepublic,Senegal,andSomalia.Earlierinhercareer,SilviaworkedatanongovernmentalorganizationthatisdedicatedtoexpandingaccesstoeducationforSyrianrefugeesinLebanon.SilviaisaPh.D.CandidateattheJohnsHopkinsUniversitySchoolofAdvancedInternationalStudies(SAI

31、S).SheholdsanM.A.inInternationalRelationsandEnomicsfromSAISandanM.A.inInternationalRelationsandDiplomacyfromtheUniversityofBologna,Italy.MiraSaidiisaSocialProtectionSpecialistintheWestandCentralAfricaUnitoftheSocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.Shehasworkedextensivelyonissuesrelatedt

32、othedesignandimplementationofAdaptiveSocialProtectionsystemsandprograms.HeroperationalexperienceextendsacrosstheSahelandWestAfrica.MiraalsoleadsworkonsocialprotectioninthecontextofFCVcountriesandcontributedtothedevelopmentoftheAdaptiveSocialProtectionStressTestTool.Earlierinhercareer,Miraworkedacros

33、stheMiddleEastonissuespertainingtosafetynetsandjobs.MiraholdsanMScinDevelopmentStudiesfromtheLondonSchoolofEconomicsandanMPPfromtheHarvardKennedySchoolofGovernment.EXECUTIVESUMMARYTheSahelregionofAfricafacesmultiplecrises,whichfurthercompoundstructuraleconomicandhumandevelopmentchallenges.TheSahelis

34、oneoftheworldspoorestregionsanddisplayssomeofthelowestlevelsofhumancapitalglobally.ViolenceandinsecurityintheSahelhavesignificantlyincreasedinthepastdecade,withseveralcountriesexperiencingactivearmedconflictandunrest.Theimpactsofclimatechangecompoundexistingvulnerabilitiesandrisks.Duetoitshighexposu

35、reandlowcopingcapacity,theSahelisamongtheworldsmostvulnerableregionstoclimatechangeandhazards,suchasdrought,floods,heatwaves,andcroppests.Finally,theexternalshocksoftheCOVID-19pandemicandthewarinUkrainehaveimpactedtheSahel,erodingpurchasingpowerandaggravatingpoverty.Thesemultiplecriseshaveresultedin

36、asignificantdeteriorationoffoodandnutritionsecurityintheregion,andmorethan13millionpeoplewereestimatedtohavefacedseverefoodinsecurityduringthe2022leanseasononeoftheworstcrisesinthelastdecade.AdaptiveSocialProtection(ASP)playsacriticalroleinpreventingormitigatingthenegativeimpactsofshocksandboostingr

37、esilienceforlong-termdevelopment.ASPhasemergedasaflexibleanddynamicapproachtosocialprotectionduringthepastdecade.Itcombinesandexploitssynergiesbetweensocialprotection,disasterriskmanagement(DRM)1andclimatechangeadaptation.Thisenablessocialprotectiontobeleveragedasaneffectivetooltoreducehouseholdvuln

38、erabilitytocovariateshocks,suchaseconomicdownturns,naturaldisasters,conflictandviolence,forceddisplacement,andhealthemergencies,includingtherecentCOVID-19pandemic.Byprovidingtailored,targeted,andtimelysupportduring,orintheaftermathofacrisis,ASPenablespoorandvulnerablehouseholdstomeettheirbasicneedsi

39、ntheshortterm,whilestrengtheningtheirresilienceinthemediumandlongertermbyreducingnegativecopingstrategies(suchasloweringfdconsumption,sellingproductiveassets,ortakingchildrenoutofschl,andbyprotectingtheirhumancapitalandlivelihoods).ASPalsopromoteslivelihoods,byincreasingprcjctivityandpromotingdivers

40、ification,whicharecentraltoresiliencetofutureshocksandsustainedpovertyreduction.ASPcomprisesasuiteofinterventionsthatcanbe*flexed,andlayeredbefore,during,andafterashockstrikes.ASPinterventionsincludebutarenotlimitedtocashtransferprograms,publicworksandcash-for-workprograms,livelihoodsupportprograms,

41、andproductiveandeconomicinclusionprograms.Theseprogramsaredesignedtoprovidepoorandvulnerablehouseholdswithtargetedanddirectsupportandaccesstosocioeconomicopportunitiestoofferawayoutofpoverty.Indoingso,theyalsoprotectindividualwell-beingandhumancapitalaccumulationfromthenegativeandlong-lastingimpacts

42、ofshocks.Duringtimesofneed,differentapproachescanbeadoptedtoensurethatpoorandvulnerableshock-affectedhouseholdsareeffectivelyreached.Forexample,smalladjustmentscanbemadetoroutinesocialprotectionprogramstoensurethecontinuityofassistanceduringtimesofshocks;verticalexpansionscanbeimplemented,totemporar

43、ilyincreasethebenefitvalueordurationofanexistingprogramforsomeorallcurrentbeneficiaries(fiureOl);andhorizontalexpansionscanbedesigned,totemporarilyexpandcoveragetonewhouseholdsaffectedbyashock(eitherneworexistingprograms).FIGURE0.1:SocialSafetyNetPrograms,VerticalandHorizontalExpansionBENEFITAMOUNTt

44、headaptivenessandscalabilityofsocialprotectionsystemsinresponsetoshks,andtoidentifypriorityareasforimprovement(BoxO.1,fiQireBO.1.1,andfigureBO1.2).Thisreportseekstocapturethedevelopmentsthattookplacesincethetestwasapplied,thoughsomeofthesemaynotbefullyreflectedinthisreport.Vertical1,t.)Source:Bowene

45、tal.2020TheSahesvulnerabilityandexposuretoshocksandcrisesissettoincreasewithacceleratingclimatechange,callingforashiftfromoftenexternallyfunded,adhocresponsestowardbuildingsustainable,government-ledsystems.Inthepast,theresponsetoshocksandcrisespredominantlyreliedonahumanitarianapproachandwithyear-to

46、-yearadhocprograms.Forexample,foodinsecurityresultingfromtheannualleanseasonwaslargelyaddressedthroughexternallyfundedhumanitarianaid.Whilehumanitarianaidcontinuestoplayanimportantroleinnavigatingfoodsecurityshocks,countriesintheSahelareincreasinglyputtingforwardgovernment-ledASPinterventionsandareb

47、eginningtoinvestinsystems.AlthoughASPhasbeenshowntobeaneffectivetoolinrespondingtotheregionscompoundingchallenges,leveragingitsfullpotentialrequiresgovernment-lednationalsystemsthatcanoperateatscalewithasuiteofnationalprogramsatscale,matureinformationsystems,readilybudgetedandpre-positionedfinance,a

48、ndclearinstitutionalarrangements.TheprincipleofasystemsapproachpermeatesthefourpillarsoftheASPframework,andthelatent-advancedframeworkoftheSocialProtectionStressTestToolisframedaroundagradualstrengtheningofnationalsystems.Overthepastdecade,ASPhasbeenonaremarkabletrajectoryintheSahel,andthisisanappropriatetimetotakestockofthesituation.ThisreportprovidesanoverviewofthestateofASPacrosssixSaheliancountries-BurkinaFaso,Chad,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,andSenegalaswellasasetofrecommendationsforactionstostrengthentheadaptivenessandresponsivenessofexistingsystemstoshocks.This