麦肯锡-建筑通告：最大限度地减少二氧化碳排放和创造商业机会（英）.docx

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1、In collaboration with McKinsey & CompanyW7ORLD ECONOMIC FQRUMCircularityintheBuiltEnvironment:MaximizingCO2AbatementandBusinessOpportunitiesWHITEPAPER.DECEMBER2023Images:GettyImages,UnsplashContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Introduction51 Transformingtheresourceloopsinthebuiltenvironment61.1 Resourc

2、erecirculation81.2 Resourceefficiencies91.3 Resourceutilization92 Buildingwithcircularmaterials102.1 Concreteandcement132.2 Constructionsteel152.3 Constructionaluminium172.4 Constructionplastics192.5 Flatglass212.6 Gypsum23Conclusion:Drivingthecircularitytransitioninthebuiltenvironment25Appendix:Mod

3、ellingassumptionsandresultscalculation26Contributors27Endnotes28DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandndusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollatorativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbut

4、whoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.2023WorldEnomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretr

5、ievalsystem.December 2023CircularityintheBuiltEnvironment:MaximizingCO2AbatementandBusinessOpportunitiesForewordFernando GomezHead, Resource Systems and Resilience - Centre for Nature and Climate, Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic ForumJukkaMaksimainenSeniorPartner,McKinsey&CompanySe

6、bastianReiterPartner,McKinsey&CompanyJorgenSandstromHead,TransformingIndustrialEsystems-CentreforEnergyandMaterials,WorldEnomicForumAmultitudeofcomplexglobalchallenges,includinghealthcrises,geopoliticalconflictsandeconomicdifficulties,haveinspiredthenarrativethattheworldhasenteredanewnorma,whereorga

7、nizationsmustdealwithcrisesandfocusonresiliencebydefault.Throughoutthisshiftingnormality,whathasnotchangedistheurgentneedtotackleoneofthemostprevalentissuesofthecentury:combatingclimatechangeanditsprofoundimpactontheworld.Thebuiltenvironmentholdsimmensepotentialforpositivechange.Buildingsandconstruc

8、tionaountforabout26%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions,primarilyduetotheirsubstantialconsumptionofenergyandmaterials.However,thereisanopportunitytotransitionfromcurrentconsumptionandproductionpatternstoamoresustainablecircularapproach.Byreimaginingdesignprocesses,embracingcutting-edgetechnologiesandexpl

9、oringinnovativebusinessmodels,industryplayerscanunlkgreatervaluefromexistingassets,conservecrucialresourcesandreducewaste.Theurgencyofmakingthisshifttowardsgreatercircularitycannotbeoverstated;eachpassingdaywithoutactionexacerbatesthechallengeshumanityfaces.ThiswhitepaperbytheWorldEnomicForumsCentre

10、forNatureandClimateandtheCentreforEnergyandMaterials,incollaborationwithMcKinsey,embarksonamprehensiveexplorationofcircularityspotentialtorevolutionizethebuiltenvironmentandcreateasustainableandresilientfuture.Throughcarefulanalysisofvaluepoolsandabatementpotential,ourresearchservesasacalltoaction,r

11、evealingbothenvironmentalgainsandsignificanteconomicrewards.Here,weshareapathtowardsamoresustainableindustrythatcanabateCO2emissionswhileunlockingeconomicvalue.Astheindustrybeginsthistransformativejourneytowardsacircularbuiltenvironment,itiscrucialtorecognizethepivotalroleoflighthouses,whichofferbre

12、akthroughcircularitysolutionsthatdemonstrateenvironmentalimpact,scalabilityandfinancialviability.Thesepioneersbringtogetherindustryleaderstoactivelydriveandacceleratethetransitiontowardscircularity,servingasbeaconsofinspirationandshowcasingproactiveadoptionofcircularpractices.Byembracingcircularity,

13、theynotonlysafeguardtheplanetbutalsounlocksustainableprosperity.WethankallcommunitymembersandForuminitiativeleadersfortheirdedicationandinvaluableinputtowardsthisreport.Wetrustitwilloffervaluableguidanceandperspectivestoleadersinboththepublicandprivatesectorsaswecollaborativelychartthecourseforthebu

14、iltenvironmentsfuture.ExecutivesummaryCircularitycouldabate75%ofembodiedemissionsfromthebuiltenvironmentwhilecreatingsignificanteconomicvalue.Thiswhitepaperquantifiesthepotentialforcarbondioxide(CO2)abatementandpotentialnetvaluegainacrossninecircularityloopsforsixkeybuildingmaterials:cementandconcre

15、te,steel,aluminium,plastics,glassandgypsum.Thecircularityloopsareassessedthroughthreedimensions:recirculationofmaterialsandminerals,renewableandrecoveredenergyandreducingemissionsthroughcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)andcarboncaptureandutilization(CCU).Theresultsshowthatcircularloopsldabate0.5to0.8giga

16、tonnesofCO2(GtCO2)in2030andbetween3.4and4.0GtCO2in2050.Thisaccountsfor13%ofthebuiltenvironmentsembodiedcarbonemissionsin2030butapproaches75%in2050.In2030,recirculationofmaterialsandmineralsandCCS/CCUareeachexpectedtocontributearound40%oftotalabatement,withCCS/CCUincreasingitscontributiontomorethan50

17、%by2050.Circularitymorebroadlyalsopresentssubstantialeconomicadvantages,withthepotentialtoyieldanannualnetprofitgainof$31-46billionby2030and$234-360billionby2050.Therecirculationofmaterialsandmineralsmakesupthegreatmajorityofpotentialnetvaluegainbothfor2030and2050.Eachbuildingmaterialinvestigatedcan

18、bemademorecircularthroughspecificstrategies:1. Concreteandcement:Concreteandcementcontribute30%ofbuildingmaterials-relatedCO2emissions.Circularstrategiessuchasmineralizationtechnologiesandsmartcrushedaggregatesoffersubstantialvaluegains,aswellasthepotentialtoabate96%ofembodiedCO2emissionsfromcementb

19、y2050.2. Constructionsteel:Steelisalreadyhighlyrecyclable,andthetransitiontoelectricarcfurnace(EAF)steelproductionandincreasedscrapcollectionholdpromise.Thesemeasurescanavoidupto60%oftotalCO2emissionsfromsteelby2050.3. Constructionaluminium:Opportunitiesforcircularitylieindesigningforreuse,increasin

20、grecycledmaterialuseandadoptingalternativefuels.Thesemeasurescanleadtoareductioninaluminium-relatedCO2emissionsofupto89%by2050.4. Constructionplastics:Introducingcircularitylevers,suchasdesigningforreuseandmodularity,increasingregrindplastics,andusingalternativefuels,candecreaseCO2emissionsfromplast

21、icsbyupto62%by2050.5. Flatglass:Practicessuchasdesigningforreuseandmodularityandincreasingculletusecanabateupto41%ofCO2emissionsfromglassby2050.6. Gypsumwallboards:Recycling,downcyclingandusingrenewableenergyintheproductionprocesscanyieldsignificantvaluegainsandCO2emissionabatementfromgypsumofupto31

22、%by2050.Inthistransformativejourney,lighthouseswillplayapivotalrole.Lighthousescatalysecollaboration,advancecircularthinkinganddisseminatedigitaltechnologies.Theirindustry-leadingsolutionsinthebuiltenvironmentareactivelypropellingtheshifttowardscircularityandsettingtheexampleforothers.Thebuiltenviro

23、nmentmusttakeaction,inpartbyrecognizingandhighlightingtheseleadinglighthousestothewiderecosystem.IntroductionAcircularbuiltenvironmentrespondstoanurgentneedandcreateswide-rangingopportunityforindustryplayers.Thebuiltenvironmentisacrucialcomponentofdailylife,providingessentialservicesthatimpacteverya

24、spectofexistence,fromhousingtotransport.Infact,90%ofindividualstimeisspentinsidebuildings,infrastructureandurbanecosystems.Thisesystemaccountsfor13%oftheworldsgrossdomesticprcduct(GDP)andemploys7%oftheworking-agepopulation.2Atthesametime,thebuiltenvironmentisasignificantcontributortothetransgression

25、ofplanetaryboundaries,thresholdsforkeyenvironmentalindicatorssuchasclimatechangeandlandsystemchange.Thebuiltenvironmentntributesone-thirdofmaterialconsumptionandwastegeneration3andapproximately37%offuel-relatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsfromhumans.4Aroundone-thirdofemissionsfromnewbuildingscomefrome

26、mbodiedsources,meaningfrommaterialproductionandnstrction,andtwo-thirdsfromoperationalsources.5Asthepopulationgrowsandurbanizationaccelerates,30billionsquaremetresofnewbuildingswillneedtobeconstructedinthenext40years,6equivalenttoaddingabuildingthesizeofNewYorkCityevery40days.Mostofthisgrowthwilloccu

27、rinresidentialnstructioninemergingmarkets,includingAfrica,theMiddleEastandEastandSouthAsia.7Overall,75%oftheinfrastructureneededby2050stillneedstobebuilt.8Thus,creatingasustainableandresilientbuiltenvironmentiscrucialforpeopleswell-beingandtostaywithinsafeplanetarylimits.Transitioningfromalineartoac

28、ircularenomyaimstodecoupleeconomicgrowthfromenvironmentaldepletion.Inacircularecosystem,virgin-resourceinputsandend-of-lifewasteareminimized,andvalueiseatedwithoutexhaustinglimitedresources.Acrossallindustries,newsourcesofeconomicgrowthareestimatedat$4.5trillioninadditionalglobaleconomicoutputby2030

29、.9Simultaneously,circularleverscontributesignificantlytoreducingCO2emissions.ThiswhitepapershowcasesthepotentialforcircularityinthebuiltenvironmenttosimultaneouslycreatebusinessvalueandreduceCO2emissions.Whilethisindustryhassignificantenvironmentalimpactsacrossvariousdimensionssuchaspollution,landus

30、echangeorbiodiversityloss,thiswhitepaperspecificallyaddressesthepotentialforemissionsabatementtoensureathoroughquantitativeandqualitativeanalysis.Theoverallpurposeisthreefold:first,toillustratehowcircularitycanntributetothedecarbonizationofthesector;second,toquantifyboththeabatementpotentialandbusin

31、essvaluepoolsacrosskeymaterials;third,todescribewhatisneededtocapturethispotential.Thiswhitepaperisalsoacalltoactiontoidentifylighthousesforcircularityinthebuiltenvironmentasamethodtodemonstrateenvironmentalimpact,financialviabilityandscalability.Thequantificationofvaluepoolsandabatementpotentialisp

32、erformedacrossninecircularityloopsforsixbuildingmaterials,whichlargelycontributetothebuiltenvironmentsresourceconsumptionandcarbonemissions:cementandncrete,steel,aluminium,plastics,glassandgypsum.Thecircularityloopsareincorporatedintoaframeworkexploringcircularityacrossthreelevers:resourcerecirculat

33、ion,resourceefficiencyandresourceutilization,andconsideringtheimpactdimensionsofmaterialsandminerals,renewableandreveredenergyandreducingemissionsthroughcarboncapture.Theimpactshavebeenquantifiedthroughagranularmodellingapproach,exploringglobalmaterialflowsandtheimplementationofcircularloopsattheres

34、pectivebuildingmateriallevelandacrossdifferentstagesofthebuildingandconstructionvaluechain.Withinthiswhitepaper,uthebuiltenvironmentecosystemreferstorealestateandinfrastructure.Ittouchesallaspectsofhumanlife,fromhomesandofficestofactoriesandhighways.Itsvaluechainencompassesavarietyofstakeholders,ran

35、gingfromdevelopersandinvestorstowastehandlingcompanies.CTransformingtheresourceloopsinthebuiltenvironmentTruecircularitycapturesnewpotentialvalueacrossavarietyofflowsandresources.Transitioningfromlineartocircularsystemsrevealsnewopportunitiestocreatevalue,drivenbystimprovementsthroughefficientresour

36、ceuseandnewbusinessmodels.Acircularbuiltenvironmentemploysresourcelps,theflowofresourcesthroughoutthevaluechain,acrossthreekeydimensions:resourcerecirculation,resourceefficiency,andresourceutilization.Theaimistomaximizetherecirculationofresourcesattheirhighestvaluetoeliminatewaste,increaseefficiency

37、andreducetheneedfornewbuildings.Variouscircularityloopsenablethosethreedimensions(seeFigure1).Increasedmaterialrecirculationcomprisesthereuseorremanufacturingofbuildingcomponentsorhigh-valuerecyclingofmaterialinthesameoradjacentvaluechains.Toenhanceresourceefficiency,wasteiseliminatedbyvalorizingita

38、sasecondaryrawmaterial,aswellasbyoptimizingresourceconsumptiontomanufactureabuildingmaterialorreduceproductuseperbuilding.Toprolongaresource,susefullifeandmaximizeitsuse,spacesandexistingbuildingscanbeshared,reusedorevenrepurposed,renovatedorrefurbishedtoextendtheirlifespan.FIGURE1Ninecircularityloo

39、psacrossthreedimensionsinthebuiltenvironmentIncreaseuseofbuildingandinfrastructureRepairandextendingbuildinglifetimeSource:McKinseySustainabilityPractice,EllenMacArthurFoundation.Materialsandminerals.Energy.CX)2Reduceandsubstituteuseofvirginmaterial4ReCyCIesecondaryrawmaterialsiJfromotherindustriesR

40、ecyclepre-consumersendaryrawmaterialfrommaterialmanufacturingprocessesRemanufacturemodulesormponentsReuseorrepurposewholemodulesandcomponentsRecycletootherbuilding，hcomponentsorothervaluechains(downcycle)Recyclepost-consumersecondaryrawmaterialCircularityintheBuiltEnvironment:MaximizingCO2Abatementa

41、ndBusinessOpportunities71.1ResourcerecirculationAcrossconstructionmaterials,therearemanyoptionstouserecycledconstructionanddemolitionwaste(CDW)asasubstituteforvirginrawmaterialsduringproduction.CrushedCDWcanalsobedirectlyreusedinconstruction,eitherascrushedncreteforroadconstructionorasarawmaterialin

42、Othervaluechains,suchaslower-qualityglassculletintheproductionofcontainerglassandfibreglass.Figure2displaysanoverviewofpotentialnetvaluegainandCO2emissionsavingsalongthethreedifferentdimensionsby2030and2050.Overall,theannualnetvalueimpactofrecirculatingmaterialsandmineralsisestimatedat$31-48billiona

43、nd$184-310billionby2030and2050.Thenetimpactofreusingandremanufacturingisestimatedat$6-13billionand$45-96billion(2030,2050),whereasthatofrecyclingmaterialsandminerals(includingdowncycling)isestimatedatahighervalueof$25-35billionand$138-214billion,respectively,in2030and2050.Theabatementpotentialforthe

44、seleversamountsto0.02-0.04and0.1-0.2gigatonnesofCO2(GtCO2)forreuseandremanufacturingandapproximately0.2and1-1.3GtCO2forrecycling,in2030and2050,respectively.Energyfromrecirculatedresourcescomprisestheuseofalternativefuelsfromwastematerialsandbiomass.Thisleverisregionallydependentandmainlyimportantina

45、reaswithhighavailabilityofwastematerialandbiomasssupply,suchasheatedanddriedsugar,energycaneorpyrolysedeucalyptus.Thislevercouldunlockavaluepoolof$6-7billionby2030andapproximately$43billionby2050whileenablingtheabatementofapproximately0.1-0.2GtCO2by2030and0.4GtCO2by2050.TherecirculationofCO2fromthep

46、rocessingandproductionofconstructionmaterialspertainstocapturingCO2emissionsandreintroducingthembackintothevaluechainwithcarboncaptureandutilization(CCU)1includingcarboncuringandenhancedre-carbonation,mineralizationandnaturalre-cartx)ation.Itcanalsorefertoremovingemissionsfromthevaluechainaltogether

47、viacarboncaptureandstorage(CCS).CO2-offtaketechnologieswilllikelybeimplementedfirstinregionswithrapidgrowthincarbonpricingmechanisms,suchasEuropeorNorthAmericaandwithinCCUhubs,wherehigh-emittingindustriessuchassteelandcementareclustered.RemovingemissionswithCCSorrecyclingemissionswithCCUwouldabatear

48、ound1.9-2.1GtCO2in2050whilealsogenerating$7billionintermsofvaluegain.By2030,thesewouldhavealreadycontributedtotheabatementof0.2-0.3GtCO2.However,duetotheinitialinvestmentandupfrontcosts,aninitiallossof$6-9billionwouldbeincurredin2030.FIGURE2Netvaluegainandcarbonabatementpotentialofcircularleversfortherecirculationofmaterialsandminerals,energyandembodiedemission(CO2)(2030,2050)Netcarbonabatementpotential,inGtCO2Netvaluegain,in$billionsRecirculat