2023年煤炭报告-英.docx

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1、Coal2023Analysisandforecastto2026INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminestheIEAmemberIEAassociationfullspectrumofenergyissuescountries:countries:includingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throug

2、hitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond.AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKorea1.ithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherla

3、ndsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTiirkiyeArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraineThispublicationandanyUnitedKingdommapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,totheUn

4、itedStatesdelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,TheEuropeancityorarea.CommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEASource: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.orqeAbstractTheglobalcoalmarkethasexperiencedaturbulentthreeyears.Demanddroppedsharplyduringt

5、heCovidpandemic,onlytoleapduringthepost-CovidreboundandfollowingRussiasinvasionofUkraine.In2022,globalcoaldemandreacheditshighestlevelever.Today,coalremainsthelargestenergysourceforelectricitygeneration,steelmakingandcementproduction-maintainingacentralroleintheworldeconomy.Atthesametime,coalisthela

6、rgestsourceofman-madecarbondioxide(CO2)emissions,andcurbingconsumptionisessentialtomeetinginternationalclimatetargets.Ahistoricturningpointcouldarrivesoon.TheInternationalEnergyAgencyslatestprojectionsseecoaldemandpeakingwithinthisdecadeundertodayspolicysettings,primarilyasaresultofthestructuraldecl

7、ineincoaluseindevelopedeconomiesandaweakereconomicoutlookforChina,whichhasalsopledgedtoreachapeakinCO2emissionsbefore2030.However,keyquestionsremain,includingwhenthepeakindemandwilloccur,atwhatlevel,andhowfastconsumptionwilldeclineafterthatpoint.Sinceitsfirstpublicationin2011,theIEA,sannualCoalRepor

8、thasservedastheglobalbenchmarkforthemedium-termforecastofcoalsupply,demandandtrade.Itsanalysisalsocoverscosts,pricesandminingprojectsatregionalandcountrylevelbycoalgrade.GivencoalsimpactonenergysupplyandCo2emissions,Coal2023isindispensablereadingforthosefollowingenergyandclimateissues.Acknowledgemen

9、ts,contributorsandcreditsThisInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)publicationhasbeenpreparedbytheGas,CoalandPowerMarketsDivision(GCP)1headedbyDennisHesseling1whoprovidedusefulsuggestionsandcommentsthroughouttheprocess.KeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEnergyMarketsandSecurity,providedwithessentialguidance.CarlosFe

10、rnandezAlvarezhasledandco-ordinatedtheanalysis.JulianKeutz5ArneLilienkampandCarlosFernandezAlvarezaretheauthorsofthereport.OtherIEAcolleaguesprovidedimportantcontributions,includingYasminaAbdelilah,HeymiBahar,StephanieBouckaert1ErenQam,LouisChambeau5JoelCouse,LauraCozzi,CaroleEtienne,VictorGarciaTap

11、ia,TimGould,CiaranHealy,AlexandraHegarty,PaulHugues,LauraMarfMartinez,GergelyMolnar,ApostolosPetropoulos,FrederickRitterandHiroyasuSakaguchi.TimelyandcomprehensivedatafromtheEnergyDataCentrewerefundamentaltothereport.TaylorMorrisonandNicolaDraguiprovidedinvaluablesupportduringtheprocess.Thanksgoalso

12、totheIEAChinadesk,particularlyRebeccaMcKimm,YangBiqingandWangYujunfortheirresearchonChina.TheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice(CDO)providedproductionandlaunchsupport.ParticularthanksgotoJethroMullen,actingHeadofCDOsandhisteam:AstridDumond,JuliaHorowitz,IsabelleNonain-SemelinandThereseWalsh.JustinFren

13、ch-Brookseditedthereport.OurgratitudegoestotheInstituteofEnergyEconomicsattheUniversityofCologne(EWI)forsharingtheirextensivecoalexpertiseandmodellinginsights.CRUprovidedinvaluabledataandinformationforthisreport.ThankstoGlenKurokawaforhissupportandsuggestions.OurgratitudegoestotheIEACoalIndustryAdvi

14、soryBoard(CIAB)fortheirsupport.Specialthankstotheinternationalexpertswhohaveprovidedinputduringtheprocessand/orreviewedthedraftofthereport.Theyinclude:KevinBall(WhiteheavenCoal),MickBuffier(GIencore)1MichaelCaravaggio(EPRI),RodrigoEcheverri(NobleResources),NikkiFisher(ThungelaResources),JustinFlood(

15、DeltaElectricity),PatriciaNaulitaLumbanGaol(Adaro),LukazsMazanek(PolskaGroupaGornicza),PeterMorris(MineralsCouncilofAustralia),BrianRicketts(EuracoaI),HansWilhemSchiffer(RWE),PaulSimons(YaleUniversity)andAkiraYabumoto(J-POWER).Theindividualsandorganisationsthatcontributedtothisreportarenotresponsibl

16、eforanyopinionorjudgementitcontains.AnyerrororomissionisthesoleresponsibilityoftheIEA.Forquestionsandcomments,pleasecontactCarlosFernandezAlvarez(Carlos.Fernandeziea.org).TableofcontentsExecutivesummary7Demand11Supply41Trade60Thermalcoal63Metallurgicalcoal70Pricesandcosts76Prices76Costs89Coalminingp

17、rojects:Export103Generalannex114ExecutivesummaryGlobalcoalconsumptionreachedanall-timehighin2022.Globalcoaldemandreachedarecordhighin2022amidtheglobalenergycrisis,risingby4%year-on-yearto8.42billiontonnes(Bt).Thegrowthengineforcoaldemand,whichincreasedinbothpowerandnon-powersectors,wasonceagainAsia.

18、InChina,demandroseby4.6%,or200milliontonnes(Mt).InIndia,itincreasedby9%,or97Mt;andinIndonesia,wherenickelsmeltersbecameasignificantsourceofdemandgrowth,itshotupby32%,or49Mt.TheUnitedStatessawcoaldemandfallby8%,or37Mt,morethananyothermarket,whilea4.3%increaseinconsumptioninEuropewasmoremutedthanmanyh

19、adfeared.DespitesubduedhydropowerandnuclearelectricitygenerationinsomeEuropeancountries,aweakeconomyandmildwinterinEuroperestrainedtheimpactofnaturalgaspricespikes,whichencouragedsomeswitchingtocoal.andtheworldisheadingtowardsanewrecordin2023In2023weexpectcoaldemandtofallinalmostalladvancedeconomies

20、.ThebiggestdropsinconsumptionwilloccurintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates,whererecordannualdeclinesofaround20%areexpected.Otheradvancedeconomies-suchasKorea,Japan,CanadaandAustralia-aresettoseelowerratesofdecline.Nevertheless,thegrowthinChina(around5%)andIndia(over8%),aswellasinIndonesia,VietNamand

21、thePhilippines-whichtogetherrepresentmorethan70%ofglobalcoaldemand-willmorethanoffsetthesedecreasesonagloballevel.InChinaandIndia,inparticular,risingcoalconsumptionisdrivenbyrobustgrowthindemandforelectricityandlowhydropoweroutput.Overall,weexpectglobalcoaldemandtogrowslightly(by1.4%)bothinpowerandn

22、on-powersectorsin2023toaround8.54Bt,anewrecord.Globalcoaldemandissettodeclineto2026一butChinawillhavethelastwordWeforecastthatChinascoalconsumptionwillfallin2024andplateauthrough2026,withhydropoweroutputsettorecoverwhileelectricitygenerationfromsolarPVandwindincreasessignificantly.However,thepaceofec

23、onomicgrowthinChinaanditscoaluseinthecomingyearsissubjecttouncertainty.Thecountry,seconomyisundergoingmajorstructuralchangesasitreachestheendofinfrastructure-led,energy-intensivegrowth,butthespeedatwhichitchangesgearsandcontinuestoexpandcleanenergycapacitywillhaveasignificantinfluenceontheoutlookfor

24、coal.Theavailabilityofhydropowerisakeyvariableintheshortterm,sincecoalisusedasasubstitutewhenhydrounderperformsinChina.India,Indonesiaandotheremerginganddevelopingeconomiesareexpectedtorelyoncoaltopowerstrongeconomicgrowth,despitecommitmentstoacceleratethedeploymentofrenewablesandotherlow-emissionst

25、echnologies.Bycontrast,duetotheirdifferenteconomicandenergycontext,wedonotseeamajorriskofcoaluserisingagainamongadvancedeconomies.Coalpowerplantsarebeingregularlyshutteredintheseeconomies,andindustrialcoalconsumptionissettodeclineduetoweakindustrialoutput,improvedefficiency,andincreasedswitchingtoot

26、herfuels.Overall,weexpectglobalcoaldemandtodropin2024andplateauthrough2026,evenintheabsenceofgovernmentsannouncingandimplementingstrongercleanenergyandclimatepolicies.Asaresult,globalcoalconsumptionin2026issettobe2.3%lowerthanin2023-althoughChinawillhavethelastword.CoasshifttoAsiaisacceleratingThedo

27、minanceofChinaincoalmarketsisstrongerthananyothercountryforanyotherfuel.Itconsumesmorethanhalfoftheworldscoalandproduceshalfofit,anditisthelargestimporter,accountingforclosetoone-thirdoftheglobalcoaltrade.ButIndiaandASEANalsoexertagrowinginfluence-helpingfurthershiftthefocusofthecoalmarkettowardsAsi

28、a.In2000,advancedeconomiesaccountedforalmosthalfofglobalcoalconsumption(48%),whileChinaandIndiatogetheraccountedfor35%.CoalconsumptionhasdeclinedintheEuropeanUnionsincethe1980sandintheUnitedStatessincethe2000s,whereasithasgrownstronglyinChina,IndiaandASEAN.Asaresult,in2026,weexpectChinaandIndiatoacc

29、ountformorethan70%ofglobalcoalconsumption.Bycontrast,theEuropeanUnionandUnitedStatesareexpectedtoeachaccountforaround3%ofglobalcoalconsumption.Thisincreasinggapinrelianceoncoalbetweencountriescouldpresentchallengesforfutureinternationaldialogueontheneedforrapiddeclineinglobalcoalusetoreachclimategoa

30、ls.MajorcoalproducersareincreasingtheiroutputEnergysecurityhasmovedfurtherupthepoliticalagendaafterthemarketdisruptionssparkedbytheCovid-19pandemicandRussiasinvasionofUkraine.ForChinaandIndia,domesticcoalproductionhaslongbeenthecornerstoneofenergysecuritypolicy.Inrecentyears,bothcountrieshavestruggl

31、edtokeepthelightsonduringperiodsofhighelectricitydemandevenbeforetheseshocksowingtocoalshortagesandhighprices.Asaresult,bothgovernmentshaveintensifiedeffortstoincreasecoalproductionsinceOctober2021.Outputfromthethreelargestproducerscontinuetoreachnewhighs.InChina,productioninbothShanxiandInnerMongol

32、iasurpassed1Btinrecentyears.Indiaisalsoprojectedtocrossthisthresholdin2024.AndinIndonesia,whichhassignificantlyboostedcoaloutputinrecentyearsamidelevatedinternationalpricesandincreasingregionaldemand,productionisexpectedtoreach700Mtin2023forthefirsttime.Meanwhile,ligniteproductioninEurope,whilestill

33、significant,willfallinlinewithregionaldemandthrough2026.HardcoalproductioninPoland,whichhascommittedtoshutdownitscoalminesby2049,issettocontinueitsslowbutinevitabledecline.ProductiondroppedintheUnitedStates,thoughthedeclinewasnotassteepasthecollapseindemand,givenhigherexportsandstockbuilding.USprodu

34、ctionissettodeclinefurtherthrough2026tobelow400Mt,whichwouldbethelowestlevelinsixdecades.InAustralia,productionissettodeclinethrough2026,drivenbybothlowerdomesticdemandandexports.Coaltradehasexpandedtoanall-timehighin2023butwilldeclineafterwardsThevolumeofcoaltradehasincreasedalmosteveryyearthiscent

35、urywithveryfewexceptions.In2015,Chinasmeasurestoprotectitsdomesticcoalindustry,coupledwithaslowingeconomythatweighedonconsumption,ledtothefirstcontractionincoaltradesincethe1990s.In2020,theeconomicdownturndrivenbytheCovid-19pandemictriggeredtheseconddrop.Now,afterarecoveryin2021and2022,globalcoaltra

36、devolumesaresettoriseagainin2023,reachingrecordlevelsforseaborneandtotaltrade-thoughdeclinesareexpectedinthecomingyears.Europeanimportscollapsedin2023amidlowdemandandplentifulstocks,whileJapan,KoreaandChineseTaipeireducedtheirimportsinlinewithlowercoaldemand.However,growthinChina,whichwillrecorditsh

37、ighestimportseverin2023,willmorethanoffsetthesedeclines.DespitestrongdomesticproductioninChina,exportershavebenefittedfromrobustdemandandmassivestockbuildingduetoenergysecurityconcerns.Onthesupplyside,IndonesiaonceagainprovedtobethemostflexibleexporterandW川exportcloseto500Mtin2023,alevelthathasnever

38、beenreachedbyanycountrybefore.Australiawillincreaseexportsby10MtasdisruptionsinducedbyLaNihainthepastfewyearsrecede.RussiaseffortstoreplaceitsformerEuropeanenergycustomerscontinue,withabouthalfofexportsin2023directedtoChina,upfromlessthanone-quarterin2021.In2023,thermalcoalpricesareretreatingfromthe

39、ir2021and2022highsInOctober2021,thermalcoalpricesreachedunprecedentedlevelswhensupplywasinsufficienttomeetasuddenriseindemandafterCovidrestrictionswereeasedinmanycountries.AfterRussiasinvasionofUkrainein2022,highgasprices,supply-sideconstraints,andenergysecurityconcernsdrovecoalpricestoall-timehighs

40、.Yetaftersummer2022,lowergaspricesandgreatercoalsupplyledtoapullbackincoalprices.In2023,priceshavefurtherrecededglobally,althoughtheyarestillhigherthanpre-Covidlevels.Regionaldisparitiesareevident,withpricessteadierinChinaowingtostrongdomesticsupply,whileweatherdisruptionsjoltedpricesinAustralia.Rus

41、siancoalhastradedatavariablediscount,sometimesontheorderofUSD200pertonne,thoughmorerecentlyithasbeenjustafewdollarspertonnecheaper.Coalproducershaveseensignificantcostinflationinthepastfewyears,whichhasstemmedfromincreasedroyaltiesowedtogovernmentsinsomepartsoftheworldandsurgingcostsforfuel,explosiv

42、es,tyresandlabour.TwoyearsofunprecedentedprofitshaveleftcoalproducersflushwithcashCoalpricesduringthepasttwoyearshavebeenmuchhigherthanexpected.Consumershavestruggledtocopeasenergybillshavejumped.Somecountriesintervenedtoprovidesupportthroughregulatorymeasuresandsubsidies,especiallyintheelectricitys

43、ector.Meanwhile,producershaveenjoyedstrongmarginsevenastheircostshaverisen,andgenerousroyaltieshavemadesignificantcontributionstothepublicbudgetsofmanyproducercountries.Coalminingcompanieshavepaidbackdebts,increaseddividendsandbuybacks,andretainedsomecash.Diversifiedminershaveoftenchannelledcoalprof

44、itstowardsothercommoditiesasgrowingdemandtiedtotheenergytransitionisexpectedtodriveuptheirprices.However,Glencore,thelargestthermalcoalexporter,willalsobecomeamajorproducerofcokingcoalafteritcompletesitsacquisitionofElkValleyResources,whichwasannouncedearlierthisyear.Giventhedifficultyofreceivingreg

45、ulatoryapprovalsandpublicpushbackagainstnewprojects,purecoalplayersaregenerallyoptingtoacquireexistingminesratherthandevelopprojectsfromscratch.DemandGlobalcoaldemandisexpectedtopeakin2023anddecreasethereafterIn2022,coaldemandreachedanewrecordhighof8415Mt,increasingby4%.Theincreasewasmainlybackedbyg

46、rowthincountriesthatrelyheavilyoncoal,suchasChinaandIndia.Furthermore,extraordinarilyhighgaspricesandgenerallyweakernuclearpowerandhydropowerproductiondrovegrowthindemandforcoaltogeneratepower.Coaldemandforpowergenerationroseby4%to5687Mt.Coalusefornon-powerpurposesroseby3.7%to2728Mt.Accountingformor

47、ethanhalfofglobalcoaldemand,Chinaisbyfartheworld,slargestcoalconsumer.In2022,thecountrysoverallcoaldemandroseby4.6%toatotalof4520Mt,withcoaltakingashareofmorethan60%inpowergeneration.India,theworldssecond-largestcoalconsumercomprisingabout14%ofglobalcoaldemand,recordedanincreaseof9%,totalling1162Mt.

48、In2023globalcoaldemandisexpectedtohaveincreasedonlymarginallyby1.4%,albeitreachinganewall-timehighofabout8536Mt.Coaldemandgrowthislosingmomentumduetolukewarmeconomicprospectspairedwiththeweakeningofthefactorsthatpushedcoal-firedpowergenerationin2022.Meanwhile,globalcoaldemandisexpectedtocontinuemovi

49、ngeastwards,withChina,India,andASEANcountriescombinedconsumingthree-quartersofglobaldemand.Atthestartofthecentury,thatsharewasaround35%,lowerthanthecombinedshareoftheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesatthattime.Inabsoluteterms,coaldemandin2023isestimatedtohaveincreasedmoststronglyinChina(up220Mt,or4.9%),followedbyIndia(up98Mt,or8%)andI