世界经济论坛-二氧化碳去除：最佳实践指南（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、WQRLDECONOMICFQRUMWhatCompaniesCanLearnfromFirstMoversCarbonDioxideRemoval:Best-PracticeGuidelinesWHITEPAPERJANUARY2024Images:Unsplash1GettyImagesContentsPreface3Executivesummary41 Overviewofthechallenge61.1 WhycarbonremovalisessentialtoachievingtheParisgoal61.2 Statusofcarbonremovaltechnologies81.3

2、 Purposeofthisreport82 TheengineeredCDRlandscape92.1 Carbonremovaltechnologiesavailableinthemarket92.2 QualityfeaturesofengineeredCDR123 WhyengageinengineeredCDRnow?143.1 Itsgoodforcorporateclimatestrategy143.2 Itprovidesbusinessopportunities153.3 Leadershipisessential-*waitandseeisnotanoption173.4

3、EngineeredCDRbringsco-benefits,too183.5 Amixofnatural-climatesolutionsandengineeredCDRis19needed4 HowtoaessthenascentmarketforengineeredCDR214.1 Howtosecurethebudget214.2 Choosingtherightmarketaccessmodel244.3 CommunicatingCDRperformancein-houseandoutside26thecompanyConclusion28Appendix29Contributor

4、s30Endnotes31DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresentthevie

5、wsoftheWorldEnomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January 2024CarbonDioxideRemo

6、val:Best-PracticeGuidelinesPrefaceNasimPour1.ead,CarbonRemovalsandMarketInnovation,WorldEconomicForumSofarin2023,theaverageglobaltemperatureonone-thirdofdayshasbeenatleast1.5oChigherthanpre-industriallevels.1AttheendofOctober,scientistswarnedthatwithinjustfiveorsixyears,humanitywouldexceedtheremaini

7、ngcarbonbudgetrequiredforanevenschanceofkeepingwarmingto1.50C?Yetdespiterepeatedwarningsandthecommitmentof195nationsinParisin2015toreversethisunfoldingclimatecatastrophe,greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise,notfall.Decarbonizingtheglobaleconomyistheprimaryandmostcriticalchallenge.Buthotonitsheelsisa

8、nequallypressingpriority:toacceleratetherateatwhichweareremovingexcesscarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere.Evenifeverycountryandeverycompanyachievesnetzeroby2050,itwontbeenough.WewillneedtokeepremovingCO2fordecadesafterwards-toreversetheaccumulationofhistoricemissions,tobalanceoutthehardest-to-abateemissi

9、onsandtosafeguardusagainstEarth,sownfeedbackloopsfromawarmerworld.Thescaleofthechallengeis,forwantofabetterword,mind-blowing.Upto687billiontonnesofCO2willneedremovingbytheendofthecentury-witharound10billiontonnesayearrequiredby2050.3Currentlyweareremovingaround2billiontonnesofCO2ayearthroughnaturalc

10、limatesolutionssuchasafforestation.Butwecantjustrelyontrees,soilsandoceanstodoourdirtyworkforus-notleastbecausewildfiresanddegradationriskreleasingthecarboncapturedbynature.Newsolutionsareneededurgently-technologiesthatcandeliveradditional,permanentandquantifiableimpactsatthespeedandscalerequiredtom

11、akeadifference.Thiswhitepaperexaminesthepromisingpotentialofseveraloftheseengineeredcarbondioxideremoval(CDR)technologies,includingbiochar,bioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS),directaircapturewithcarbonstorage(DACCS)andenhancedrockweathering(ERW).EachsolutionaimstoclearthehighbaroftheWorldEco

12、nomicForumsFirstMoversCoalition(FMC)-todemonstrateitcancaptureandstorecarbonatscaleandwithhighdurability.TheFMCleveragesthecollectivepurchasingpowerofcompaniestosendacleardemandsignaltoscaleupemergingdecarbonizationtechnologiesthatarecriticaltothenet-zerotransition.Bystimulatingsufficientdemand,theF

13、MCaimstohelpacceleratethecommercializationofthesetechnologiesandultimatelydrivedowntheircost.MembersoftheFMChavecommittedtocontractforatleast50,000tonnes-or$25millionworth-ofdurableandscalableCDRby2030.Weneedmorecorporateleaderssuchasthesetostepuprightnowanddemonstratedemandtothepioneersofengineered

14、CDR,sotheycangaintheconfidenceandlinesofcreditneededtoinvestinthesepotentiallylife-savingtechnologies.WehaveinterviewedeightFMCmembersfromdifferentindustrysectorstogaintheirinsightsintowhyitssoimportanttostartnow,whywaitandsee,isnotanoption,andhowbesttonavigatethroughthisnascentmarket.Thispaperchart

15、stheirexperienceandcallsoneverycompanytomakeadvancepurchasesofengineeredCDRaspartoftheirwiderclimatestrategy.ExecutivesummaryIn2022,globalemissionswere2billiontonnesmorethanin2015-a5%rise.YetachievingtheParisclimategoalsrequiresadeclineinemissionsof40-60%by2030.Decarbonizing90%oftheglobaleconomyisth

16、epriorityaccordingtotheScienceBasedTargetsinitiative.Theremaining10%willneedtocomefromnegativeemissions-capturingCO2fromtheatmosphereandstoringitpermanently,knownascarbondioxideremoval(CDR).CDRisrequiredforthreereasons:1)tocompensateforthoselast10%ofhard-to-abateemissions;2)todrawdownEarthsownemissi

17、onsfromnaturalfeedbackloopsexacerbatedbyglobalwarming(e.g.forestfires);and3)toreversetheaccumulationofhistoricemissions.By2050,globalemissionsmustreachnetzero,whichmeansremovingupto10billiontonnes(orugigatonnes,Gt)ofCO2fromtheatmosphereeveryyear.Throughoutthesecondhalfofthecentury,globalemissionshav

18、etostaynet-negative(wheremoreCO2isremovedthanemitted).Thisreportisaimedatsustainabilityprofessionals.ItmakesthecaseforengineeredCDRsolutionsandpresentsguidelinesonhowtoenterthenascentremovalsmarket.ItdrawsoninterviewswithmembersoftheFirstMoversCoalition(FMC),whohaveeachcommittedtocontractfor50,000to

19、nnes-or$25millionworth-ofdurable,scalablecarbonremovalby2030.TheengineeredCDRlandscapeBiocharcarbonremoval(BCR):createscharcoalwhenbiomassisheatedwithoutoxygen,enablingthecarboninthebiomasstoresistdecay.BiocharismoreaffordablethanotherengineeredCDRbutislimitedbytheavailabilityofsustainablebiomass.Bi

20、oenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS):burnssustainablebiomasstoproducepowerandheatorprocessesbiomass.TheresultingCO2isstrippedfromthefluegas,compressedandstoredpermanently.Carboncaptureisperformedbythebiomassthroughphotosynthesis.Directaircapturewithcarbonstorage(DACCS):usesfilterstotrapCO2,whic

21、hiscompressedandstoredunderground.Itusesasmalllandfootprintandofferspermanentgeologicalstorage,butcostsareveryhigh($600-$1,000tonne),duetothecleanenergyrequired.Enhancedrockweathering(ERW):involvesspreadingforestsoils,croplandsandbeacheswithmineralsthatdissolveinwaterandabsorbCO2,bindingitforhundred

22、sofyears.Uncertaintyremainsaboutthecost,sideeffects,permanenceandscalability.Toremove10GtofCO2ayearby2050requiresrampingupallsolutions,whetherengineeredornature-based.Successdependsonintegrity(deliveringanadditional,permanentandquantifiableimpact)andscalability(fastenoughtomakeadifference).Engineere

23、dCDRscoreshighlyonintegrity.DACCSandBECCSareclearlyadditionalsincethetechnologyisdedicatedtoremovalsandwouldnotexistotherwise.Bothcanstorecarbonundergroundformillennia,whereasnaturalclimatesolutions(NCS)riskreleasingcarbonthroughforestfiresordegradation.EngineeredCDRsolutions,executedinindustrialins

24、tallations,aresimplertoquantify.CurrentCDRtotals2GtCO2yr,ofwhich99.9%comesfromNCS(e.g.afforestation,reforestation).Whileonly0.1%resultsfromengineeredCDR1ithasmorepotentialtoscaleup,becausethespacerequiredforNCSislimitedbyotherlanduses.TheUnitedNationsestimatesthatthemitigationpotentialofengineeredCD

25、Rby2050couldtotal62GtCO2yr,comparedto33GtCO2yrforNCS.ThemainconstrainttoscalingupengineeredCDRisthehighcost,whichiswhereprivate-sectorleadershaveanimportantroletoplay.WhyshouldacompanyengageinengineeredCDRnow?Corporateclimatestrategy:engineeredCDR,squalityandscalabilityofferscompaniesgreatercertaint

26、yinmeetingclimatetargetsandmakingcredibleclaimsforoffsettingresidualemissions.TakingaleadinengineeredCDRcanprotectcompaniesfromaccusationsofgreenwashing,whileimprovingreputationandcompetitiveedge.Businessopportunities:companiescanuseexistingexpertisetodevelopnewCDR-relatedbusinessmodels,includinginf

27、rastructuredevelopment,equipmentmanufacturing,plantoperations,consultingortradingCDRcertificates(removals).Co-benefits:cancontributetoajusttransition.Existingfossilfuelinfrastructure(e.g.depletedoilandgasfields,pipelines,industrialclusters)canberepurposedforengineeredCDR,preventingredundanciesorlead

28、ingtonewjobs.1.eadership:theworldcannotaffordtowaitandsee,ifnewCDRtechnologieswillfallinprice.DevelopersofengineeredCDRneedearlyadopterswithofftakeagreementsthatguaranteefuturerevenue,enablingdeveloperstoraisemoneytoscaleup.Keepoverallcostofremovalsdown:investinginengineeredCDRnowwillmakeitlessexpen

29、siveinthelongterm,whereasfavouringcheaperNCStodaywilldepletenature-basedsolutions,increasingtheirprice.HowtoaccessthenascentmarketforengineeredCDRSecurethebudgetwithaninternalcarbonprice:SeveralFMCmembershavesetaninternalcarbonpricebasedonwhattheyarepreparedtopayforthedurationoftheCDRengagementperio

30、d.Disclosedpricesrangefrom$80to$200/tC02by2030.Thisstrategyhasadvantages:itremovestheuncertaintyofannualbudgetrequests;transparencyonpricesendsacleardemandsignaltoCDRdevelopers;itallowsthecompanytoenterlong-termofftakeagreements;and,importantly,thehighertheinternalcarbonprice,themoreacompanywillprio

31、ritizeemissionreductionsoverCDR.OtherFMCmembershavesetagoalthatcombinesatargetbudgetandvolumeofremovalsperyear.Choosetherightmarketaccessmodel:-Directdeal-makingwithCDRdevelopers:allowsbuyerstonegotiatetheexactcontractterms,butcomeswithsubstantialtransactionaleffort.Suitedtolargecompanieswithbigofft

32、akevolumeslookingtobuildin-housecompetencyandrelationshipswithstrategicpartners.-Buyersclub:aggregatesdemandfromindividualbuyersintoamanagedportfolioofengineeredCDR.Memberssignonecontractwiththeintermediaryandsecurediversifiedremovalsatcompetitiveprices.Suitableforcompaniessourcingsmallervolumesthro

33、ughlong-termofftakes.-Over-the-counterpurchases:whereengineeredCDRcertificatesaretradedamongsuppliers,brokersandbuyers.Pricespertonneareoftenfixedandcarryheavyoverheads,buttransactionsarefast,low-effortandflexible.-Consultants:forcompanieswithlimitedexperienceofCDR,whocanseeksupportfromaspecialistco

34、nsultanttoprovidetechnicaladviceonaccessroutesandhelpbuildameaningfulstrategy.Communicationstrategy:ThepaperpresentsexamplesofhowFMCmembershavecommunicatedtheirCDRactionsin-houseandexternally,underliningtheimportanceofseekingthebroadestbuy-in.OverviewofthechallengeNetzeroby2050isnotthefinaldestinati

35、on.Thereafter5globalemissionswillneedtobecomenet-negative-andcarbonremovalsoffertheonlypathwaytothatgoal.1.1WhycarbonremovalisessentialtoachievingtheParisgoalBy 2050, nearly10 billiontonnes of CO2 mayhave to be removedfrom the atmosphereannuallyThespeedatwhichtheplanetiswarmingiscurrentlygreaterthan

36、thespeedatwhichtheglobalenomyisreducingitsemissions.SinceDecember2015-thedatewhen195nationssignedthelegallybindingParisAgreementtopursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5abovepre-industriallevels4-netgreenhousegasemissionshavenotfallenbutrisen,despiteaCOVID-19-inducedblip.Lastyear,totalestima

37、tedemissionswerenearly2billiontonnesmorethanin2015-anincreaseofroughly5%.5AccordingtotheUnitedNations(UN)IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)1achievingthegoalenvisionedintheParisagreementwillrequireadeclineinglobalnetanthropogenicCO2emissionsof40-60%by2030(comparedto2010),enroutetonetzeroby20

38、50.6Toachievethis2030targetmeansreducingemissionsbythepandemic-levelequivalentofa7%dropeveryyear(seeFigure1).Decarbonizingthewayhumanitylives,travels,makesthingsandconsumesthemisthetoppriority.AccordingtotheScienceBasedTargetsinitiative(SBTi),companiesneedtoreducetheabsoluteemissionsoftheirvaluechai

39、nsbyatleast90%.Remainingemissionsmustberemovedoruneutralizedthroughpermanentcarbondioxideremoval(CDR),notthroughconventionalcarbonavoidancecertificates.AsperSBTi,sCorporateNet-ZeroStandard,uacompanyisonlynsideredtohavereachednet-zerowhenithasachieveditslong-termscience-basedtargetandneutralizedanyre

40、sidualemissions.7EachofthefourumodelpathwayspresentedbytheIPCCinits2018specialreportGlobalWarmingof1.5qCdependsuponsomedegreeofCDR.8ThisprocessisalsoknownasnegativeemissionsandittakestheworldbeyondnetzerotoapointwheremoreCO2needstoberemovedthanisbeingemitted.ThepredictedvolumesofCDRthatwillbeneededa

41、reeye-watering.EvenforthetwomoremoderateIPCCscenarios,cumulativecarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)intherealmof348-687billiontonneswillbeneededbytheendofthecentury.9By2050,nearly10billiontonnesofCO2mayhavetoberemovedfromtheatmosphereannually,acrdingtothemedianestimatesofseveraloftheIPCCsnet-zeroscenarios.1

42、0CDRisrequiredforthreereasons:- Tompensateforuhard-to-abatenemissions(thelast10%inSBTi,sCorporateNet-ZeroStandard)necessarytodeliverauthenticnetzero- TodrawdowntheEarthsownemissionsresultingfromthenaturalfeedbackloopsofawarmingplanet,suchasforestfiresormethaneescapingfrommeltingpermafrost- Toreverse

43、theaccumulationofhistoricemissionsThislastcaseissignificant.Since1990,theyearwhentheIPCCpublisheditsfirstreport,humanityhasemittedmoregreenhousegasesthaninallrecordedhistorybeforethatdate.11Tobegintorestoretheclimate,theseaccumulatedemissionsneedtoberemoved-permanently.Thatmeansnetzeroby2050isnotthe

44、finaldestination.Frommid-centryonwards,globalemissionswillneedtobecomenet-negative-andCDRofferstheonlypathwaytothatgoal(seeFigure2).Since1990,humanityhasemittedmoregreenhousegasesthaninallrecordedhistorybeforethatdate.InstituteforEuropeanEnvironmentalPolicyFigures1and2summarizewhatneedstohappentoach

45、ievetheParisAgreementgoals:- Halveemissionsby2030- Net-zeroemissionsby2050- Net-negativeemissionsafter2050FIGURE 1TheemissionstrajectoryneededtodeliverthegoalsoftheParisAgreementNotes:1.AssumesGHGemissionsreboundandgrowfrom2020atthesamerateasthecurrentpoliciesscenarioinUNEP2019Gapreportto2050(1.1%CA

46、GR);2.AssumesuntriesdecarbonizefurtheratthesameraterequiredtoachievetheirNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)between2020and2030;3.Assumes25%reductionby2030andnetzeroby2070;4.Assumes45%reductionby2030andnetzeroby2050;5.ParisAgreementgoalsaretolimitglobalwarmingto2.0oC,preferably1.5oC.Figuresexcludel

47、anduse,land-usechangesandforestry.Source:WorldEconomicForum2FIGURE2Beyondnetzero-negativeemissionsrequiredthroughcarbonremovalsGlobalgreenhousegasemissions(billiontonnesCO2eperyear)BusinessasusalemissionsNet-emissionspathtolimitglobalwarmingto1.5oCResidualgrossemissionsthatcantyetbereducedNegativeem

48、issionsrequiredto:- Balancehardto-reduceemissions- Reversethebuildupofhistoricemissions- BalanceEarthsownemissions(e.g.forestfires)Medianestimateof10billiontonnesCO2eyrtoberemovedandstored/OACCarbonremoval=nexttrillion-dollarindustryxIIbr乙UOUNote:Differentemissionsscenariosrequiredifferentquantitiesofcarbondioxideremovalbasedontimingandquantityofgrossemissionsreductions.Source:WorldEconomicForum31.2Statusofcarbonremovaltechnologie