世界银行-宜居星球的就业机会：清洁能源转型创造就业机会的潜力（英）.docx

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1、PublieDiscIosureAuthorizedP b lie Di scIo su re A ut ho riz edJOBSFORA1.IVABLEPLANETJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransitionESMAPTHEWORLDBANKlRD-IDAREPORTJOBSFORA1.IVABLEPLANETJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransitionZuzanaDobrotkovaSheoliPargalNicolasFichauxESMAP耳口THEWORLDBANKABOUTESMAPT

2、heEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)isapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankandover20partnerstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ESMAP,sanalyticalandadvisoryservicesarefullyintegratedwithintheWorldBankscountryfinancingandpolicydialogue

3、intheenergysector.ThroughtheWorldBank,ESMAPworkstoacceleratetheenergytransitionrequiredtoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGoal7(SDG7),whichensuresaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,andmodemenergyforall.IthelpsshapeWoridBankstrategiesandprogramstoachievetheWorldBanksClimateChangeActionPlantargets.Le

4、arnmoreat:https:/www.esmap.org.December2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgThisworkisaproductoftheWorldBank,withcontributionsgivenbythestaffandconsultantslistedintheacknowledgments.Thefindin

5、gs,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheacracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkd

6、onotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.RIGHTSANDPERMISSIONSThiswork

7、isavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http:/creativecommons.orglicensesby3.0igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions:Attribution-Pleasecitetheworkasfo

8、llows:EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP).2023.JobsforaLivablePlanet:JobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition.Washington,DC:TheWorldBank.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGOTranslations-Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:

9、ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.AdaptationsIfyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyT

10、heWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank.Third-PartyContent-TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentntainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythirdpart

11、y-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyr

12、ightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages.AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ProductionCredits一DesignerCircleGraphics,Inc.CoverImageWorldBankPh

13、otosp.xxivEnricoFabianZWorIdBank,p.4WorldBank,p.16,p.76,p.84Florio,p.30EXAStudio/WorldBank,p.62CelineFerreZWorIdBankAllimagesremainthesolepropertyoftheirsourceandmaynotbeusedforanypurposewithoutwrittenpermissionfromthesource.ContentsAcknowledgmentsviiAboutthisReportviiiAbbreviationsixGlossaryxKeyFin

14、dingsxiiExecutiveSummaryxv1. WhyAssesstheEmploymentImpactsoftheCleanEnergyTransition?12. EmploymentImpactsoftheEnergyTransition:WhatDoWeKnow?52.1. Definitions52.2. GlobalAnalyses72.3. KeyConsiderationsinAssessingJobImpacts92.4. ReviewoftheLiteratureandMethodologiesUsed113. EconomywideEmploymentImpac

15、tsofCleanEnergyInvestmentsinDevelopingEconomies173.1. SetupoftheCGEModelUsedandScenariosStudied18Scenario1:IncreaseinRenewableElectricityGeneration19Scenario2:IncreaseinRegionalElectricityTrade20Scenario3:IncreaseintheReliabilityofPowerSupply20Scenario4:ImprovementsinDemand-SideEnergyEfficiency213.2

16、. ImpactsofDifferentScenariosonRealGDP,LaborDemand,andWages213.3. EstimatesofEconomywideJobCreation253.4. SummaryofEconomywideModelingResults274. DirectandIndirectJobCreation:FindingsfromSevenCaseStudies314.1. SummaryDescriptionsoftheCaseStudies364.2. QuantificationofDirectandIndirectEmploymentImpac

17、ts384.3. SkillsRequirements,LocalHiringMandates,andTransferabilityofSkills424.4. AttractivenessofSustainableEnergyJobs514.5. GenderBalance544.6. CleanEnergyJobs:AProfileBasedonCaseStudies58615. TheJobTransitionforCoalPowerPlantWorkers5.1. RepurposingCoalPowerPlants625.2. TheWorkforceinCoal-FiredPowe

18、rPlants645.3. PossibleJobTransitionPathways655.4. TheBottomLineonTransitioningfromBrowntoGreen:NotaSimpleMatter716. TheEffectoftheEnergyTransitiononInducedJobs756.1. AssessmentofProductiveUsesofElectricityfromMiniGridsinNigeria766.2. InducedEmploymentinIndia,Malawi,andPeru766.3. EconomywideInducedJo

19、bsinRwanda786.4. ToUnderstandInducedJobs:MoreRigorousEvaluationOverLongerPeriods807. ConclusionsandRecommendations83References91ListofFigures,Tables,andBoxesFiguresFigureES.1.SharesofSkilled,Semiskilled,andUnskilledDirectJobsintheStudiedProjectsxviiiFigure1.1.GlobalEnergySectorJobsUnderaRangeofScena

20、rios,2019and20301Figure 2.1. GlobalEmploymentinSelectedEnergySubsectors,20228Figure 2.2. GlobalRenewableEnergyEmployment,byTechnology,2012-218Figure 2.3. VaryingScopesofEmploymentImpactAssessmentsforCoalandRenewableEnergyZEnergyEfficiencyInstallations10Figure 3.1. ElectricityGenerationintheBaselinea

21、ndScenarios1and2,byCountry,2021and203019Figure 3.2. ChangesinRealGDPin2030intheFourScenarios,byCountry22Figure 3.3. ChangesinRealWagesofUnskilledandSkilledWorkers,byScenarioandCountry,203023FigureB.4.1.1.ProjectedIndirectJobsCreatedbytheAmanProjectinMauritania32Figure 4.1. ShareofDirectandIndirectJo

22、bsinCaseStudyProjects39Figure 4.2. SharesofSkilled,Semiskilled,andUnskilledDirectJobsintheStudiedProjects42Figure 4.3. TotalDirectEmployees(Full-TimeEquivalent)PerOrganizationInvolvedintheRusumoProject47FigureB.4.3.1.ProfessionsNeededinaTypicalValueChainforaRenewableEnergyProject50Figure 5.1. AnExam

23、pleofSuggestedRepurposingofMiningLands63Figure 5.2. DistributionDensityPlotsofNumeracy,Literacy,andProblem-SolvingSkillsRequiredinGreenandBrownJobsinPoland66Figure 5.3. AnalysisofPotentialJobTransitionsforaDisplacedMechatronicsEngineerinPoland66Figure7.1.OverarchingTheoryofChangeforCleanEnergyInterv

24、entions88TablesTableES.1.TotalJobCreationAssessedintheCaseStudies(Full-TimeEquivalents)xviiTableES.2.Salaries.Wages,andWorkingConditionsintheProjectsStudiedxviiiTable2.1.ComparisonofMethodologiesUsedtoAssessEmploymentImpactoftheGreenTransition12Table3.1.EstimatedChangeinElectricityGenerationandNumbe

25、rofDirectNewJobsCreatedintheElectricitySector,byScenarioandCountry,203024TableB3.1.1.EmploymentEquivalenttoChangeinRealGDP,byScenarioandCountry26Table 4.1. TotalJobCreationAssessedintheCaseStudies(Full-TimeEquivalents)39Table 4.2. DefinitionsofDirect,Indirect,andInducedJobsinCaseStudies41Table 4.3.

26、SkillsandEnablingFrameworksforLocalizationofSkilledJobsDirectlyCreatedbytheEnergyTransition,byProject43Table 4.4. SkillsandEnablingFrameworksforLocalizationofUnskilledJobsDirectlyCreatedbytheEnergyTransition,byProject45Table 4.5. TransferabilityoftheWorkforce,DirectSkilledJobs47Table 4.6. Transferab

27、ilityoftheWorkforce,DirectUnskilledJobs48Table 4.7. Salaries,Wages,andWorkingConditionsintheProjectsUnderStudy52Table 4.8. GenderAspectsofJobsCreatedbytheProjectsUnderStudy54BoxesBox3.1.EmploymentEquivalenttoChangesinRealGDP25Box4.1.ExpectedJobCreationinMauritaniaforaGreenHydrogenProject32Box4.2.Exp

28、ectedJobCreationinOffshoreWindIndustryandLeveragingExperiencefromOffshoreOilandGasJobs33Box4.3.PreparingSkilledLaborfortheCleanEnergyTransition49Box4.4.GettingtoGenderEqualityintheEnergySector56Box5.1.RegionalDifferencesinWorkPreferencesAcrossPoland68Box5.2.TheDifficultiesofRetrainingPolishCoalWorke

29、rstoWorkonRenewableEnergyProjects69Box5.3.WorkingTowardaJustTransitionforWorkersLaidOfffromSouthAfricasKomatiCoal-FiredPowerPlant70Box7.1.WhatistheTOCofaCleanEnergyProject?86AcknowledgmentsThisworkwasmadepossiblebytheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)withfinancialsupportfromtheRoyalMinis

30、tryofForeignAffairsofDenmark.ESMAPisapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankand19donorstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ThereportwaspreparedbyZuzanaDobrotkova(SeniorEnergySpecialist),SheoliPargal(LeadEnergyEconomist),andNicolasFichaux(SeniorEnerg

31、yConsultant).TheworkwasinitiatedundertheguidanceofRohitKhanna(PracticeManager,ESMAP)andcompletedunderGabrielaElizondoAzuela(PracticeManager,ESMAP),withoverallstrategicdirectionprovidedbyDemetriosPapathanasiou(GlobalDirector,EnergyandExtractivesGlobalPractice).Theteamacknowledgestheimportantinputs,in

32、sightsandassistancereceivedfromSudeshnaGhoshBanerjee(RegionalDirector),UlrikeLehr(SeniorEconomist),TuChiNguyen(SeniorEnergyEconomist),AndersPedersen(SeniorEnergySpecialist),NathyeliAcunaCastillo(GenderSpecialist)andAnnaAghababyan(SeniorOperationsOfficer)andWorldBankconsultantsStephaniePinnington1and

33、KavitaRai.Editor:StevenKennedy.AboutthisReportThisreportpresentsthefindingsandconclusionsofaprogramofanalyticalworkundertakentoinvestigatetheimpactsoftheglobaltransitiontocleanenergyonthequantityandqualityofjobsinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.Undertheprogram,entitled“EstimatingtheJobCreationPotentia

34、loftheCleanEnergyTransition,theWorldBanksEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)undertookmultiplestreamsofanalysis: Areviewoftheliteratureandcommonlyusedmethodologiesofinvestigation(WorldBank2023a) Modelingofeconomywidejobimpactsofpoliciessupportingthecleanenergytransitioninselectedcountriesi

35、nSub-SaharanAfrica(WorldBank2023b) CasestudiesoftheeffectsonemploymentofselectedWorldBankcleanenergyprojects(WorldBank2023d;WorldBank2023e;WorldBank2023f;WorldBank2023g;WorldBank2023h;WorldBank2023i;WorldBank20231) Deepdivesintotheimpactonjobsofclosureofcoal-firedpowerplants(WorldBank2023j);ofproduc

36、tiveusesofelectricityassociatedwithminigridsinNigeria(WorldBank2023k);andoftheRusumoFallsHydropowerProject(WorldBank2023c).Inadditiontothisreport,buildingontheabove-mentionedstreamsofanalysis,theprogramhasproducedadiscussionpapertosupportprojectdesign,ttTrackingJobsinProjectsFocusedonCleanEnergyandP

37、roductiveUsesofElectricityn(WorldBank2023m).ThenoteprovidesstrategiesfortrackingandenhancingjobcreationthatcanbeusedintheWorldBankGroup,scleanenergylendingoperations.Italsodocumentsthejobcreationbenefitsofthediversesetofprojectsexaminedinthecasestudiesabove.Thereportsunderthisprogramtogetheraimtosup

38、portlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesinreapinggreatersocioeconomicbenefitsfromtheenergytransitionbysupportingtheminincreasingthenumberandqualityoflocaljobsgeneratedwhileimplementingcleanenergyprojects.Thereportstargetmultipleaudiences,frompolicymakerstodevelopmentpractitionersandacademics.Theyalsoaimtof

39、amiliarizeenergyspecialistswiththeeffectsofenergyprojectsonjobsandgivethemtoolsthatenablethemtotakeaccountof-and,wherepossible,maximizethesocioeconomicbenefitsofthecleanenergytransition.Reapingthebenefitsofthejobscreatedbycleanenergyinterventionswilldependoneffectiveplanningandpreparationintheearlys

40、tagesofprojectsandsustainedsupportduringtheirimplementation.AbbreviationsCGEDPOsDRE EEcomputablegeneralequilibriumDevelopmentPolicyOperationsdistributedrenewableenergyenergyefficiencyEJETPEskomJustEnergyTransitionProjectEPMElectricityPlanningModelESMAPEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgramFTEfull-t

41、imeequivalentGDPgrossdomesticproductGHGgreenhousegasesIEAInternationalEnergyAgencyIOinput-outputIRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency1.ADPLocalAreaDevelopmentPlanMWmegawattO&MoperationandmaintenancePIAACProgrammefortheInternationalAssessmentofAdultCompetenciesPUEproductiveuseofelectricityPVphotovo

42、ltaicsRErenewableenergyT&DtransmissionanddistributionVREvariablerenewableenergyAllcurrencyisinUnitedStatesdollars(US$,USD),unlessotherwiseindicated.GlossaryDirectjobsJobsassociatedwiththedesign,development,management,ConstructionZinstaIIation,andmaintenanceofprojectsandprojectfacilities.Employmentfa

43、ctorsFull-timeequivalentAjobs-per-megawattemploymentcalculation.Thenumberofhoursconsideredfull-timework.Forexample,ifacompanyconsiders40hoursfulltime,thentwoemployeesworking20hoursperweekwouldequal1.0full-timeequivalent(FTE).IndirectjobsJobsassociatedwiththemanufacturingofequipmentandmaterialsusedfo

44、rafacility,thesupplychainthatprovidestherawmaterialsandservicesneededforthemanufacturingprocess,andthefinanceandbankingsectorsthatprovideservicesfortheconstructionandoperationofafacility.InducedjobsJobscreatedduetothespendingofearningsbypersonsdirectlyandindirectlyemployedbyaproject.Inducedjobscanal

45、sostemfromincreasedspendingusingconsumersavingsachievedthankstoenergyefficiency,thecostcompetitivenessofrenewablesorjobsstemmingfromproductiveusesofelectricityfromnewlyacquiredenergyaccess.LocaldevelopmentAmultidimensionalconceptofchangebringingtogethereconomic,social,cultural,andenvironmentaldimens

46、ions.Localdevelopmentmaybeseenasamethodthathelpsimprovequalityoflife,supportingoracceleratingtheempowermentofpeople,developingorpreservinglocalassets,strengtheningcohesion,anddefininganddeliveringgrassrootsdevelopmentprojects.On-the-jobtrainingAtrainingapproachbywhichtraineesacquiretheskillsandcompe

47、tenciesneededforajobinanactualworkplaceenvironment.Quasi-naturalexperimentQuasi-naturalexperimentsrefertoserendipitoussituationsinwhicheconomicagentsarerandomlyassignedtotreatmentorcontrolgroups,approximatingtherandomizeddesignofawell-controlledexperimentandallowingcausalinference.PieceratecontractApieceratecontractreferstopaymentperunitofworkratherthanperunitoftime.GLOSSARYRandomizedcontroltrialsTherandomizedcontroltrialisatrialinwhichsubjectsarerandomlyassignedtooneoftwogroups:one(theexperimentalgroup)receivingtheinterventionthatisbeingtested,andtheother(thecomparisongrouporcontrol)receivin