世界银行-全球灾后损失评估（GRADE）报告：阿富汗赫拉特6.3级地震序列2023年10月（英）..docx

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1、PZOJZalnso-osQo=qndGFDRR W醺逊吧”Mw 6.3 Herat Earthquake Sequence in Afghanistan, October 2023JapanGov1H CXMfcHMlNl L ATpzoq alnsoosQo=qnQ-pzzo号ction practices in the affected region. Replacement st does not include fixed/mobile industry capital, transport equipment, household contents, commercial stoc

2、k contents etctoresidentialbuildings(houses),non-residentialbuildings(e.g.zeducation,health,worship,commercial,industrialassets)andinfrastructure(e.g.,transport,powerzwater,telecommunications),andtoevaluatethespatialdistributionofdamagesinordertosupportthedevelopmentofaroadmapforrecoveryandreconstru

3、ction.Thisreportsummarizesthekeyfindingsoftheassessment.Impactsofconcurrentorsecondaryhazardssuchaslandslidesweresmallandthusnotevaluatedinthisreport.Theassessmentbenefittedfromdamagedataandreportsfrompublicsources,suchastheUnitedNationsOcefortheCrdinationofHumanitarianAffairs(UNOCHA)zWorldHealthOrg

4、anization(WHO),UnitedNationsSatelliteCentre(UNOSAT)zandCopernicusSatelliteDerivedDamageAssessments,aswellasinformationfrominternationalandlocalNon-GovernmentalOrganizations(NGOs)zandMiyamotoInternational.Thisassessmentcouldpotentiallyinformtheenvisionedpost-disasterdamageandneedsassessment(PDNA)fort

5、hisevent.1.1 KeyHighlights TheOctober7to15,2023earthquakesequenceoffoureventsofthesamemagnitude(MW6.3)affected11districtsincludingZindajan,Gulran,Injel,Kushk(Rabat-e-Sangai),Guzara,Ghoryan,Karukh,Kushk-e-Kuhna,Herat,Pashtonzarghon,andKohsan;allofwhichbelongtotheHeratprovince.DistrictsofHeratandInjel

6、aloneaccountforhalfoftheaffectedresidents. ThecombinedearthquakesfromOctober7to15resultedin1,482fatalitiesand2,100injuries,directlyaffecting154,000people(UNOCHAOctober20update),upfromanearlierestimateof43,400people,whichhadalsomentionedthatnearly23%ofthesewerechildrenundertheageoffive.Around114z000i

7、ndividualsrequireurgenthumanitarianassistance. Thetotalestimatedcostofdirectphysicaldamagestobuildings(residentialandnon-residential)andinfrastructureandlivestock/agricultureisapproximatelyUSs314million(equivalenttoapproximately2.2%oftheAfghanistanGDPin2021)(Table1).Economiclossesarereportedintermso

8、fcapitaldamages,estimatedviatheGRADEmethodology.Itisimportanttonotethatthisestimatecoversonlythereplacementcostofbuildingstructures.Itdoesnotacuntforcostsofreplacementofcontentsinbothresidentialandnon-residentialstructures.Additionally,itexcludescostsrelatedtoreconstructionorbuildingbackbetter,orfur

9、therdevelopmentinthearea.Moreover,itdoesnottakeintoaccountfactorslikeproductioninterruption,incomeloss,temporaryhousing/relocationexpenses,anddemolitioncosts.Lastly,theimpactofconcrrent/secondaryhazardssuchasrainfall/landslideswerenegligibleandwerenotfactoredin. TheGRADEassessmentshowsthatthemediane

10、stimateddamagescalculatedforbothresidentialandnon-residentialbuildingstockarenearlyequal,eachamountingtoapproximatelyUSsI25million.Followingcloselyaredamagestoinfrastructureandagriculture,whichtotaledUSG64.4million.AhighlevelOfvulnerabilityoftheresidentialbuildingstockwasalsoobserved,withveryhighdam

11、ageratiosforresidentialbuildings(highestratioinZindajanat37.9%).In the assessment, the Residential sector encompasses housing, graifodder storage, and, in some cases, Ihrestock shelters and household infrastrcturenections. The Non-Residential sector includes a wide range of structures such as privat

12、e, public, and commercial buildings, schools, hospitals, ciinks/health centers, public administration buildings, mosques, agricultural warehouses/larger shelters, and industrial buildings or warehouses. R also encompasses mixed-use facilities where both mmerdal and residential activities occur. Last

13、ly, the Infrastructure* category covers transport infrastructure (e.g., roads, railways, bridges), critical power and water infrastructure (power plants, pipelines, PoWer networks, transmission lines, water structures), and ICT infrastructure (communications, cables, towers, TV, radio, etc.). Additi

14、onally, this category includes agricultural components such as the stocks of fodder, livestock, and machinery.Incontrast,thedamageratiofornon-residentialbuildingsisnotablylowerduetobetterconstructionquality(13.7%inZindajan).Similarly,estimateddamagestoinfrastructurearealsolowerandreachapproximately9

15、.5%ofthebaselineinfrastructureexposureintheZindajandistrict.Table1:Directphysicaleconomicdamagebysectoranddistrict/provinceinabsolutevalues(inUS$millions).District/ProvinceResidentialNon-ResidentialInfrastructure/TotalMedianInjel(Herat)37.338.019.294.4Herat(Herat)29.132.911.673.6Zindajan(Herat)9.19.

16、115.133.2Kushk(Herat)9.310.75.325.3Ghoryan(Herat)7.48.53.919.8Guzara(Herat)9.17.62.519.2Gulran(Herat)6.75.92.915.4Karukh(Herat)3.03.21.57.7Pashtonzarghon(Herat)3.42.60.86.7Kushk-e-Kuhna(Herat)2.11.70.54.4Kohsan(Herat)1.81.30.43.6OtherDistricts(Herat)3.42.70.66.6BadghisProvince2.81.10.34FarahProvince

17、0.10.10.10.1GhorProvince0.10.10.10,1Total124.5125.164.4314.0 Housinginearthquake-affecteddistrictssufferedseveredamageduetopredominantlynon-resilientconstruction,with90%usingvulnerablepakshaand10%khama-khashtaconstruction.Lackofstonefoundationsandplinthcoursesexacerbatedvulnerabilitytoseismicforces.

18、Structuralcollapsewasofteninstantanus,particularlyimpactingwomen,children,andtheelderlyasthefirstearthquakestruckatll:llamwhenmostmenwereoutdrs.Mp1:Spatialdistributionoftotaldirectdamagesatdistrictlevel.TotalDirectDamagebyDistrictinUS$million2-5El5-io10-25 25-50 50-75 75ICountryboundaryProvincebound

19、aryi1Districtboundary2QIntrodUCtion2.1 EventCharacteristicsandDescriptionTheHeratProvinceinWesternAfghanistanwassignificantlyaffectedbyaseriesoffourshallowearthquakes,allwiththesamemomentmagnitude(Mw)6.3zaccompaniedbyrecurringaftershockssinceOctober7,2023.TheinitialtwoMw6.3earthquakesstruckaround40k

20、mnorthwestofthecityofHeratonOctober7at11:11and11:42amlocaltime,followedbynumerousaftershocks.TwomoreMw6.3earthquakesoccurredonOctober11and15zfurtherimpactingthesameareas.Allfoureventswereshallowwithfocaldepthsof6to14kmzaccordingtotheUnitedStatesGeoIogicaISurvey(USGS).Theepicentersofthefourearthquake

21、swerelocatedwithintheHeratregion,thethird-highestseismichazardzoneinAfghanistan(Waseemetal.,2019)zwhichhadremainedrelativelyunaffectedbystrongearthquakesforanextendedperiod.TectonicallyztheHeratregionisdominatedbythe730-km-longHariRudfault.ThisfaultstretchesfromitsintersectionwiththeChamanfaultnorth

22、ofKabulandextendswestwardacrosstheGhorandHeratprovincestotheIranianborder.TheOctober2023earthquakeeventswerethedeadliestinAfghanistansincetheMay30z1998earthquakethatimpacteddistrictsinBadakhshanandTakharprovinces(killingaround4,600peopleandinjuring12,000).Since1920zsevenotherearthquakesofmagnitude6o

23、rlarger(anduptomagnitude7.3)occurredwithin250kmoftheaffectedregion,allwithinIran.HistoriceventscausingdamageintheHeratregion,andPOssibIycenteredwithintheprovince,includethosein849zl102and1364AD.Probabilisticseismichazardassessmentsfortheareahadbeenprimarilyinfluencedbysubstantialearthquakesoccurring

24、acrosstheIranianborder.ExamplesincludethedevastatingMw7.3ArdekulearthquakeonMay10z1997zthatresultedinatleast1,567fatalities,includingfivepeopleinAfghanistan,andtheMw6.6and7.1Ghaenat(Khorasan)earthquakesonNovember14and27z1979thatcausedaminimumof300CasuaItiesinIran.ForthepurposesofthisGRADEreport,acus

25、tomShakeMapwasdevelopedtobetterillustratethereportedimpactsofthefourearthquakes.Figure1depictsthecompositeeventShakeMap7completewithacolor-codedscaleindicatingtheseverityofshakinginModifiedMercalliIntensity(MMI)scalezones,rangingfromviolentetremelydamagingtosevere/verydamagingandverystrong/damagingg

26、roundmotion,rrespondingtomacroseismicintensitiesIX,VIIIzandVIIontheMMIscale,respectively.TheepicentersofthefourMw6.3earthquakesarealsoshown.Figure1:RecreatedcompositeMMI(ModifiedMercalliIntensity)ShakemapoftheOctober5to17,2023earthquakesequenceinHeratprovince(WesternAfghanistan).Itshowstheseismicshakingsspatialdistribution.Thebrown/darkorangelocationscorrespondtoseveregroundshakingintensitiesVllandVIILTheepicentersareshownasredbulletswiththeoccurrenced