世界银行-微型电网储能：电池部署的现状和预测（英）-2023..docx

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1、Status and Projections of Battery DeploymentAn Energy Storage Partnership ReportEnergyStorageforMiniGridsEnergyStorageforMiniGridsStatusandProjectionsofBatteryDeploymentThisreportoftheEnergyStoragePartnershipispreparedbytheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)withcontributionsfromtheAllianc

2、eforRuralElectrification(ARE),RicereasulSistemaEnergetico(RSE),LoughboroughUniversity,andtheInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank(IADB).TheEnergyStoragePartnershipisaglobalpartnershipconvenedbytheWorldBankGroupthroughESMAPEnergyStorageProgramtofosterinternationalcooperationtodevelopsustainableenergystorages

3、olutionsfordevelopingcountries.Formoreinformationvisit:https:/www.esmap.org/the_energy_storage_partnership_espABOUTESMAPTheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)isapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankand24DartnerStohelplow-andmiddle-incomeuntriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergys

4、olutions.ESMAP,sanalyticalandadvisoryservicesarefullyintegratedwithintheWorldBankscountryfinancingandpolicydialogueintheenergysector.ThroughtheWorldBankGroup(WBG)1ESMAPworkstoaeleratetheenergytransitionrequiredtoachieveSUStainabIeDeVeIODmenlGoal7(SDG7)toensureaesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,an

5、dmodernenergyforall.IthelpstosesandprogramstoachievetheWBGClimateChanaeACtiOnPlantargets.Learnmoreat:htsWesmaD.OrQ2023InternationalBankforRenstructionandDevelopmentZTheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433Telephone:;Internet:www.worldbank.oraRightsandPermissionsThematerialinthisworkissubjecttoco

6、pyright.BecausetheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesiffullattributiontothisworkisgiven.Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,WorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington

7、,DC20433,USA;fax:+1-;e-mail:DUbriahtWOrIdbank.or.Furthermore,theESMAPProgramManagerwouldappreciatereceivingacopyofthepublicationthatusesthispublicationforitssourcesentincareoftheaddressabove,ortoesmadworldbank.org.ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommons3.0IGO)httD：/CreaIiVeCommon$.ora/license$/bv

8、3.0io.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions:Attribution-EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP).2023.EnergyStorageforMiniGrids:StatusandProjectionsofBatteryDeployment.Washingto

9、n,DC:WorldBank.Translations-ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.AdaptationsThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.Viewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesol

10、eresponsibilityoftheauthor(s)oftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank.Third-PartyContent-TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithintheworkanddoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-partyownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthoset

11、hirdparties.Ifyouwishtoreuseacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatreuseandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto1tables,figures,orimages.ProductionCreditsProductionEditorHeatherAustinDesignerCircleGraph

12、ics,Inc.FrontCover|IRENABackCoverIRENAAllimagesremainthesolepropertyoftheirsourceandmaynotbeusedforanypurposewithoutwrittenpermissionfromthesource.tableOfcontentsABBREVIATIONSVllACKNOWLEDGMENTSV川KEYFINDINGSIXEXECUTIVESUMMARYX1 BATTERYTECHNOLOGIESINMINIGRIDSACROSSTHEWORLD11.1 TheGlobalStockofMiniGrid

13、s21.2 TheGenerationMixofMiniGrids31.3 TheRoleofStorage31.4 TheRoleoftheLevelizedCostofStorageintheTechnologySelectionProcess51.5 UsingMiniGridsforProductiveUses:BeyondBasicAccesstoElectricity51.6 ChallengesFacedbyMiniGridDevelopers52 SIZEOFTHEGLOBALMARKETFORMINIGRIDANDENERGYSTORAGE71 .1NumberofPeopl

14、ewithoutAccesstoElectricity722 ProjectedAccessby2030823 RuralMiniGridInstallationsin2021824 4ForecastingGlobalDemandforMiniGridsandBatteryStorageSystems93 SELECTIONOFBATTERYTECHNOLOGY121 .1FactorsInvestorsConsider1232 ComparisonofStorageTechnologies1433 TheCapitalCostofBatteries1534 4TheLevelizedCos

15、tofStorage164 FUTURETRENDSINBATTERYSTORAGEFORMINIGRIDAPPLICATION204.1 UsedLithium-IonBatteriesasaStationaryStorageSolution204.2 Iron-AirBatteriesforLong-TermEnergyStorage214.3 SodiumIonBatteries224.4 Hydrogen-PoweredStorage224.5 FlywheelEnergyStorageforMiniGridStabilization225 CASESTUDIES245.1 Solar

16、MiniGridswithLeadAcidBatteries:TheHuskPowerMicrogridsInitiativeinIndiaandNigeria245.2 SolarHybridMiniGridwithLithiumIronPhosphateBatteries:TheLolweIslands,Uganda255.3 SolarHybridMiniGridwithLithium-IonNickelManganeseCobaltBatteries:SanSeth,Bogale1Myanmar265.4 SolarHybridMiniGridwithLithiumIronPhosph

17、ateBatteries:Dancitagi,Nigeria265.5 SolarMiniGridwithLithiumIronPhosphateBatteries:Makhala1Amperehour,India275.6 SolarMiniGridwithVanadiumRedoxFlowBattery:Maldives285.7 SolarMiniGridwithFlywheelEnergyStorageSystems:ThePhilippines286 RECOMMENDATIONS31REFERENCES33APPENDIX A: TYPESOFENERGYSTORAGE35APPE

18、NDIX B: IMPROVINGTHEPERFORMANCEOFLEADACIDBATTERYSTORAGEMINIGRIDS38LISTOFFIGURESANDTABLES1.ISTOFFIGURESANDTABLESFIGURES1.1NumberofInstalledandPlannedMiniGrids,byRegion,2021212NumberofInstalledandPlannedMiniGridsinSelectedCountries,2022213GenerationMixofInstalledandPlannedMiniGrids,201931.4BatteryStor

19、ageTransitioninRuralMiniGridsinAsiaandAfrica,2012-21315PrimarySourceofBatteryStoragebySelectedMiniGridDevelopersin2017-2141.6MiniGridBatteryStorageasPercentageofTotalCapacity,byTechnologyType,2012-2141.7SharesofLeadAcidandLithium-IonasSourcesofBatteryStoragebyMiniGridsinSouthandSoutheastAsiaandAfric

20、a,2022418EffectofGridLoadFactoronLevelizedCostofElectricity51 .1NumberofPeopleWithoutAccesstoElectricity,byRegion,2021and2030822 ProjectedAnnualIncreaseinNumberofRuralPeoplewithAccesstoElectricity,byRegion,2021-30823 DistributionofMiniGridCapacity,byRegion,202192.4ProjectedAnnualGlobalDemandforRural

21、MiniGridintheLow-,Base-,andHigh-CaseScenarios,2021-301025ProjectedGlobalCumulativeCapacityAdditionofNewRuralMiniGrids,2022-30102.6 ProjectedGlobalDemandforBatteriesforRuralMiniGrids,2021-30113.1 EstimatedandProjectedDemandforBatteriesforMiniGrids,byType,2021-30133.3 32CostofSix-HourStorage,byBattery

22、Type,2022-30153.4 1.evelizedCostofStorageofSelectedBatteryTypesatDifferentDurations183.5 ContributionsofCapitalExpense,OperationsandMaintenance,ResidualValue,andElectricityCosttotheLevelizedCostofStorage,byBatteryType183.6 EstimatedandProjectedLevelizedCostofStorageforSix-HourDurationSystem,byBatter

23、yType194.1 ProjectedChangesinBatteryPerformanceBetween2018and2025,byTypeofBattery214.2 HuskMiniGridintheVillageofAkura,inNasawaraState,Nigeria254.3 HybridSolarMiniGridintheLolweIslands,Uganda254.4 IceManufacturingUnitPoweredbyEngie-EquatoriarsSolarMiniGridintheLolweIslands,Uganda264.5 HybridSolarMin

24、iGridinSanSeth1Bogale,Myanmar274.6 SolarHybridMiniGridwithContainerizedEnergyStorageSolutionsInstalledbyPowerGeninDancitagi,Nigeria274.7 SolarMiniGridwithContainerizedBatteryEnergyStorageSysteminMakhala,India284.8 VanadiumRedoxFlowBatteryEnergyStorageSystemattheMalahiniKudaBandosResort,Maldives294.9

25、 KineticEnergyStorageSystemsinthePalawanislands,thePhilippines30TABLES1 .1EstimatedandProjectedMiniGridCapacityperHousehold,byRegion,2021and2030922 BatteryCapacityinSelectedMiniGridProjectsInstalledin2020-211123 RatioofBatteryCapacitytoMiniGridInstalledCapacity111 .1TechnicalParametersofSelectedBatt

26、eryTechnologies1432 PughMatrixRankingofStorageTechnologiesinMiniGridApplications1533 DescriptionsandAssumedValuesinLevelizedCostofBatteryStorageCalculations17ABBREVIATIONSCAPEXcapitalexpenditureCSRCorporateSocialResponsibilityDERdistributedenergyresourceEEEngie-EquatorialESPEnergyStoragePartnershipE

27、SSenergystoragesystem(s)FESSflywheelenergystoragesystem(s)GWhgigawatthour(s)kgkilogramkVAkilovoltamperekWkilowattkWhkilowatthor(s)kWpkilowattpeakLCOEIevelizedcostofelectricityLCOSIevelizedcostofstorageLFPlithiumferro-phosphateMWhmegawatt(s)NMCnickelmanganesecobaltO&MoperationsandmaintenancePALECOPal

28、awanElectricCooperativePVphotovoltaicSIPCORS.l.PowerCorporationVRFBvanadiumredoxflowbatteryWwattWhwatthourWpwattpeakAllcurrencyisinUnitedStatesdollars(US$,USD),unlessotherwiseindicated.ACKNOWLEDGMENTShisreportwaspreparedbytheWorldBanksEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)andCustomizedEnergy

29、Solutions,andundertheauspicesoftheWorkingGroupFiveoftheEnergyStoragePartnershipwithtechnicalcontributionsandreviewsbyJonExel(SeniorEnergySpecialist,WB),ChrisGreacen(Consultant,WB),andAlfredoVillavicencio(Consultant,WB).GabrielaElizondoAzuela(PracticeManager),ChandraGovindarajalu(LeadEnergySpecialist

30、),JulietPumpuni(SeniorEnergySpecialist,WB)1andClemenciaTorresdeMastle(SeniorEnergySpecialist,WB)providedinvaluablecontributionsandoverallguidance.SpecialthankstoHuskPowerSystems,EngieEnergyAccess,PowerGen,Amperehour,andAmberKineticsforprovidinginformationforthecasestudies;andtothefollowingEnergyStor

31、agePartnershippartners-JensJaeger(ARE),LucianoMartini(RSE)1EdBrown(LoughboroughUniversity),andEdwinMalagon(IADB)whoparticipatedinthepeerreviewprocess.KEYFINDINGSThisreportspecificallyfocusesonbatteryenergystorageindecentralizedoffgridminigridslocatedinremoteareas.Itprovidesanoverviewofbatterytechnol

32、ogiesusedinminigridsglobally,demandforecastsforvariousbatterytechnologies,acomparisonofcharacteristicsofdifferentbatteries,anexplorationofcostsandtrendsinbatterytechnologies,casestudies,andrecommendations.Inthehigh-casescenario,itisprojectedthatannualdemandforminigridbatteriesisprojectedtoincreaseto

33、over3,600MWhby2030fromaround180MWhin2020.Inabase-casescenario,annualdemandexceeds2,200MWh,whileinthelowcaseannualdemandisaround1,500MWh.Theselectionofbatterytechnologyformini-gridprojectsisamulti-faceteddecisionbasedonfactorssuchascyclelife,depthofdischarge,typeofloadconnectedtothegrid,energydensity

34、,C-rating,thermalrunaway,maintenance,after-salesservice,hardwarecompatibility,maturity,cost,batterydegradation,operatingconditions,andenvironmentalconcerns.TheIevelizedcostofstorage(LCOS)iscriticalforoptimaldecision-makinginminigriddevelopment.ThoughupfrontcostsoftendominatethetechnologyselectionPro

35、CeSS,theLCOSprovidesamorecomprehensiveperspectivebyconsideringthelifetimecostofstoragetechnologies.TheLCOScalculationincorporatesthecapitalexpenditure,operationsandmaintenancecosts,residualvalue,andcostofchargingthebattery.Whileleadacidbatteriescostlesspernameplatecapacity($/kWh),thesuperiorcyclelif

36、e,efficiency,andpermissibleroutinedepthofdischargeoflithium-ionbatteriesresultinalowerLCOS.1.ithium-ionbatterieshavegrowninpopularityandaredisplacingleadacidbatteries,thankstoreducedprices,longerlifespan,andminimalmaintenancerequirements.Historically,leadacidbatterieswerethego-tochoiceduetotheirmatu

37、rity,availability,andlowupfrontcost.1.ithium-ionpricesareforecastedtodeclineuntil2030.Incontrast,leadacid,amaturetechnology,maynotwitnesssignificantpricedrops.Forecastssuggestthatlithium-ionbatterieswillextendtheirleadasthelowest-costbatterytechnologyforminigridsdroppingfrom2022LCOSof$0.37perkWhto$0

38、.34in2026and$0.32by2030,notwithstandingthelikelihoodthatrawmaterialcostsforlithium-ionbatteriesriseduetodemandfromtheelectricvehicleindustry.Thecostofleadacidbatterieswilldeclineonlyslightly,from$0.55to$0.54perkWhoverthistimeperiod.Inthenearfuture,otherbatterystorageoptionsarepromising,includingseco

39、nd-lifelithium-ionbatteries,sodium-ionbatteries,iron-airbatteries,hydrogen,andflywheelenergystorageThisreportincludescasestudiesofminigridsfromAfricaandAsiathathighlightglobaldeploymentofbatterytechnologiesrangingfromconventionalleadacidtolithium-ion,toVRBFandflywheelstorage.Eachcasestudydescribesth

40、eminigridsrating,energystoragerating,batterychemistry,businessesserved,communitieselectrified,andthewayinwhichtheelectricityisused.Minigridenergystoragerecommendationsinclude:studyingbatteryperformanceinactualoperatingconditions,consideringtotalcostandnotjustupfrontbatterycost,adoptingsafetyandperfo

41、rmancestandards,promotingrecyclingpractices,encouragingtheuseofrepurposedbatterytechnologies,exemptingminigridbatteriesfromimportduties,providingtechnicalskillstraining,andcreatingstandardoperatingprocedurestounderstandbatterytechnologyperformance.EXECUTIVESUMMARYheEnergyStoragePartnership(ESP),esta

42、blishedbytheWorldBankin2019,aimstodevelopandimplementenergystoragesolutionsfordevelopinguntries.Thesesolutions,coupledwithrenewableenergysources,couldprovideelectricitytoover1billionpeoplewhocurrentlylackreliableaccess.Aminigridisaninterconnectedsystemofdistributedenergyresources(DERs)-generallyincl

43、udingrenewableenergyandelectricitystorage-thatoperatesindependently,servicingcustomergroupsofvarioussizes,fromremoteareastourbanlocations.Theseminigridssupportarangeoffacilitiesincludingprimaryhealthcenters,agriculturalactivities,learningcenters,hospitals,airports,andcommercialestablishments.Thisrep

44、ortspecificallyfocusesonbatteryenergystorageindecentralizedoff-gridminigridslocatedinremoteareas.Itprovidesanoverviewofbatterytechnologiesusedinminigridsglobally,demandforecastsforvariousbatterytechnologies,acomparisonofcharacteristicsofdifferentbatteries,anexplorationofcostsandtrendsinbatterytechno

45、logies,casestudies,andrecommendations.Italsoincludesappendicesthatofferabroadoverviewofmechanical,electrochemical,andthermalstorage,aswellasperformanceoptimizationofleadacidbatteriesinminigrids.Globalelectricityneeds,particularlyinremoteandruralareas,areasignificantchallenge.Asof2020,anestimated740m

46、illionpeoplestilllackaccesstoelectricity,577millionofwhomliveinSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA).ThoughSSAhasanelectrificationrateof48%asof2020,ambitiousnationalelectrificationplansincountriessuchasEthiopia,Ghana,Kenya,Nigeria,Rwanda,andSenegalaimtoattainuniversalaccessby2030.Someofthese2030targetshavebeenimpa

47、ctedbytheCOVID-19pandemic,withmanydevelopingcountrieslikelytoexperiencedelays.Undertheexistingtrajectory,itisexpectedthatabout800millionpeoplewillgainaccesstoelectricitybetween2021and2030,leaving560millionunelectrified.Toachievefullelectrificationby2030,itisnecessarytoprovideelectricitytoaround1.3bi

48、llionpeople.Growingdeploymentofminigridsarereachingsomeofthisunelectrifiedpopulation,with21,000minigridscurrentlyservingabout48millionpeopleworldwide.Toservehalfabillionpeopleby2030,theworldneedsafleetof217,000minigrids,mostofwhichwillbepredominatelypoweredbysolarelectricitywithbatterybackup.SouthAsiapresentlyleadswiththehighestnumberofinstalled(9,600)andplanned(19,000)minigrids.Afghanistan,India,andMyanmarcompriseabout80%ofm