牛津经济研究院-啤酒在低收入国家的经济贡献（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、够IiFN屈油CSOFBEERIN1.OWERINCOMECOUNTRIESTAB1.EOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary41. Introduction62. Thebeersectorseconomicfootprint83. Beerconsumption143.1 Beerconsumptionpatterns143.2 Beerconsumptioninthecontextofthebroaderalcoholindustry164. Thebeersectorspotentialtogrowinlowerincomecountries184.1 Modelling

2、approach184.2 Beersectorspotentialtocontributemoretolowerincomeeconomies185. Factorsinfluencingbeerconsumptioninlowerincomecountries225.1 Factorsinfluencingalcoholconsumption2252Factorsinfluencingbeerconsumption226. Conclusionsandfutureresearchrecommendations26Appendix286.1Beersconsumptionovertime28

3、62Modellingframework28$34billionThebeersector,scontributiontoGDPinlowerincomecountries.TheaveragecontributiontoGDPwas1.6%acrosslowerincomecountriesin2019,comparedto0.9%acrosshighincomecountries.67millionJobssupportedbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountries.IMlfflTMEXECUTIVESUMMARYIn2022zwepublishedastu

4、dyoftheglobalbeersectorseconomicfootprintacross70countries,conductedonbehalfoftheWorldwideBrewingAllianceusing2019data.Onemainfindingofourpreviousstudyisthatthebeersectorseconomicsignificanceissubstantiallylargeracrosslowerincomeeconomies.Inthisreport,weinvestigatefurthertheimportanceofthebeersector

5、inlowerincomeeconomies.Webeginbyexaminingwhythebeersectorseconomicsignificanceisgreaterinlowerincomecountries,andthenanalysehowbeerconsumptionvariesacrosscountries.Wealsoexplorehowtheseeconomiccontributionscouldpotentiallyincreasefurtheriftheshareofbeerconsumptionrose,whilekeepingoverallalcoholicbev

6、erageconsumptionlevelconstant.Weconcludewithrecommendationsforfurtherstudies.Thebeersectoralreadysupportslargersharesofeconomicvalueinlowerincomeeconomies.In2019zthebeersectorscontributiontoGDPaveraged1.6%acrosslowerincomecountries,almostdoubleitscontributiontoGDPinhighincomecountries(anaverageof0.9

7、%ofnationalGDP).Thebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesalsosupportedmorejobsinbothabsoluteandrelativeterms(anaverageof1.4%ofnationalemploymentversus1.1%inhighincomecountries),whichcouldbeexplainedbythelowerlevelsoflabourproductivityandamoreprominentroleofagricultureinthesecountries.Thebeersectorinthesec

8、ountriesisalsocharacterisedbyalessprominentroleofthedownstreamsegment(accountingforonly39%ofthesectorsgrossvalueaddedcontribution,comparedto62%inhighincomecountries)andalowerlevelofinternationalisation(nearlyallthebeersoldinlowerincomecountriesisproduceddomestically,comparedtohighincomecountrieswher

9、eanaverage12%ofsalesbydownstreambusinessesisimportedfromoverseas).Beerconsumptiontendstobelowerinlowerincomecountriescomparedtotherestoftheworld.Theaveragepersoninlowerincomecountriesconsumesonlyonethirdofthebeerconsumedbytheircounterpartsinhighincomecountries.Despitelowerpricesandlowerlevelsofconsu

10、mption,consumersinlowerincomecountriesallocatealargershareoftheirdisposableincometobeercomparedtoindividualsacrossothercountryincomegroups.OXFORDECONOMICSThisindicatesbeeriscomparativelylessaffordableinlowerincomecountries.Furthermore,wefindthatdemandforbeerincreasesClisproportionallyatlowincomeleve

11、ls(i.e.zamonglowerincomecountries),butismuchlessincomesensitiveascountriesbecomericher.Thissuggeststhatbeerbehavesasaluxurygood“inlowerincomeeconomies,asopposedtoanormalgood“inhighincomecountries.Whilethesegeneralobservationsaremadebasedonconsumptionpatterns,wearenotabletodrawanyconclusionsaboutthes

12、ignificanceorcausalityoftherelationshipbetweendisposableincomeandbeerconsumption.$67Averagepercapitaexpenditureonbeerinlowerincomecountries,significantlylowerthanthe$403spentinhighincomecountries.Thebeersectorcouldmakeevenlargereconomiccontributionsinlowerincomecountriesifbeerwasalargershareoftotala

13、lcoholconsumption.Weestimatethattotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionbythebeersectorcouldrisetoanaverageof2.2%ofGDPacrosslowerincomeeconomies.ThesectorspotentialtogrowisfoundtobegreatestinIndia,Ethiopia,andGhana.Thereareseveralconstraintstothebeersectorspotentialtomakeevenlargereconomiccontributionsinlow

14、erincomecountries.Whenaccountingforalcoholcontentandvolume,beerisrelativelymoreexpensivethanspiritsacrosscountriesofallincomegroups,withalargerdifferencefoundamonglowerincomecountries.1.ookingatexcisedutiesbyethanolcontent,beerisalsotaxedmorethanspiritsacrosslowerincomecountries.Beyondprices,therear

15、eotherfactorstoconsiderthatcaninfluencepeoplezsdecisionstoconsumebeer,includingtastesandculturaldifferences.Incertaincountries,spirits,wine,andotheralcoholicbeveragesarepreferredandmorepopularthanbeer.+$37biThepotentialincreaseincontributionstoGDPbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesifbeerconsumptio

16、nlevelsrosetoourCounterfactualscenario.Thereishowevermuchlefttoexploreinrelationtothistopic.Somepossibleextensionstothisstudycouldinvolvelookingattheoverallmacroeconomicimpactofincreasedbeerconsumptionontheeconomy;assessingtaxframeworksforalcohol;investigatingtheimpactofunrecordedalcoholconsumption;

17、exploringcausalrelationshipbetweenconsumptionpatternsandkeydriversusingadetailedeconometricmodel.OXFORDECONOI.JICSTheeconomiccontributionofbeerinlowerincomecountries1. INTRODUCTIONThebeersectorbringstogetherawiderangeoforganisationswhichareresponsibleforproducing,marketing,distributing,andsellingbee

18、rtomillionsofconsumersacrosstheglobe.Incarryingouttheseactivities,businessescreateandstimulatesignificanteconomiccontributionstotheglobaleconomy.In2022,wepublishedastudyoftheglobalbeersectorseconomicfootprintacross70countries,conductedonbehalfoftheWorldwideBrewingAlliance.Inthisfirst-of-its-kindstud

19、y,whichtookaglobalperspectivetoestimatethebeerseconomicfootprintusing2019data,wequantifiedthebeersectorzseconomiccontributionsupportedbybrewingandsellingbeer(thesectorsdirectimpact),itsspendingwithsuppliersofgoodsandservices(itsindirectimpact),andthewage-fundedspendingintheconsumereconomybyemployees

20、ofthebeersectoritselfanditssupplychains(itsinducedimpact).Ourstudydemonstratedhowimportantthebeersectoristoeconomiesaroundtheglobe.Thestudyrevealedthat,in2019,thebeersectorsupportedanestimated$555billioningrossvalueaddedcontributionstoglobalGDPandaround23millionjobs.Notably,wefoundthattheglobalbeers

21、ectorscontributionisespeciallyimportanttolowerincomecountries.Inthisreport,togetherwithABInBev,weinvestigatefurthertheroleofthebeersectorforlowerincomeeconomies.Westartbyexaminingwhythebeersectorseconomicsignificanceishigherinlowerincomecountries,andthenanalysehowconsumptiontrendsvaryacrosscountries

22、.Finally,weexplorehowtheseeconomiccontributionscouldpotentiallyincreasefurtherifbeersshareoftotalalcoholicbeverageconsumptionincreased.Weconcludewithrecommendationsforfurtherstudies.OXFORDECONOMICS2. THEBEERSECTOR,SECONOMICFOOTPRINTDiggingfurtherintotheresultsofourpreviousstudy,thissectionoftherepor

23、tdescribeshowthebeersectorseconomiccontributionsvaryacrossincomegroupsandthekeydriversbehindthesedifferences.1BasedontheWorldBanksdefinitionofincomegroups,wecategorisedtheanalysedcountriesintothefollowinggroups:highincome,uppermiddleincome,andlowerincome.2inhighincomecountrieswhere,onaverage,thesect

24、orsupported0.9%ofnationalGDP.However,inabsoluteterms,beerstotalgrossvalueaddedcontributioninlowerincomecountriesamountedto$34billiononlyaIOthofthe$337billionsupportedinhighincomeeconomies.Withinthelowerincomegroup,thebeersectorstimulatedthelargestgrossvalueaddedimpactasshareofnationalGDPinCambodia(4

25、.3%),wherepercapitabeerconsumptionwasalsothehighest.ThebeerindustrystimulatedthelowesteconomicimpactasshareofnationalGDPinIndonesia(0.20%)zSri1.anka(0.29%),andIndia(0.33%),Unsurprisingly,amonglowerincomeeconomies,thesethreecountriesrecordedthelowestpercapitabeerconsumptionin2019.Thebeersectorcompris

26、ingbothbrewersandthedownstreamvaluechain,whichincludesbeerdistributors,retailers,andthehospitalityindustrysupportssubstantialeconomicbenefitsacrosstheglobe.In2019,weestimatethatbrewersandbeersdownstreamvaluechainsupported$1inevery$131ofglobalGDPandoneinevery110jobsintheglobaleconomy.3Onemainfindingo

27、fourpreviousstudywasthatthebeersectorseconomicsignificancewassubstantiallylargeracrosslowerincomeeconomies.ThebeersectorstotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionasashareofnationalGDPaveraged1.6%acrosslowerincomecountriesin2019.4Inthesecountries,thebeersectorstotalimpactwasnearlytwiceasimportantasFig.1:Beers

28、ectorstotalgrossvalueaddedcontributionsbycountryincomegroupin2019GVAz$billionz2019pricesTotalGVAimpactPercentageofnationalGDPPercentoftheeconomy,incomeSource:OxfordEconomicsOXFORDeconoviicsFig.2:Beersector,stotalemploymentcontributionsbycountryincomegroupin2019incomeSource:OxfordEconomicsTheresultsa

29、resomewhatdifferentwhenwelookatjobs,whicharehigherinbothproportionalandabsolutelevelsinlowerincomecountries.In2019zthebeersectorsupported6.7millionjobsinlowerincomecountries,or50%morethanthe4.5millionjobssupportedinhighincomeeconomies.Inrelativeterms,thesectorsimpactwasalsolargerinlowerincomecountri

30、esthanhighincomecountries,withanaverage1.4%and1.1%ofnationalemploymentbeingsupported,respectively.5Differencesinproductivitiesacrossincomegroups,andinthecompositionofindustriesstimulatedbythebeersector,contributetoexplainingtheIargerjobsimpactsacrosslowerincomecountries.Therelativeimportanceofagricu

31、lturetolowerincomecountriesandlowerlevelsofproductivityareamongthefactorsdrivingtheseresults.Thatis,thebeersectorinlowerincomecountriesismorelabourintensivethaninhighincomecountries.6Amongstlowerincomecountries,thebeersectorsupportedthehighesttotaljobscontributionasashareofnationalemploymentinMozamb

32、ique(3.7%).ItwasfollowedbyCambodiawith3.3%ofnationalemploymentsupportedbythebeersector.Similartogrossvalueaddedimpacts,thebeersectorslowestjobcontributionswereinIndonesia(0.21%),India(0.26%)zandSri1.anka(0.33%).5Thisiscalculatedastheaveragecontributionacrosscountriesintheincomegroup.Morelabourintens

33、ivemeansthatmoreunitsoflabourarerequiredtoproduceoneunitofoutput.Tobetterunderstandthefeaturesanddriversofthesectorzsimpact,itisimportanttoknowhowbrewersandbeer,sdownstreamvaluechaincontributedtothisimpact.Acrosslowerincomecountries,brewerssupportedalargershareofthetotalgrossvalueaddedimpact.Ofthe$3

34、4billiongrossvalueaddedcontributionsupportedbybeerinlowerincomeeconomiesin2019,brewersaccountedfor61%.Thisisalmostexactlythereverseinhighincomeeconomies,wherebusinessesalongthedownstreamvaluechainsupported62%oftheoverallgrossvalueaddedimpact.Thisdifferenceislikelyexplainedbythefeaturesandcharacteris

35、ticsofdownstreamactivitiesacrossdifferentincomegroups.Whilebrewerstendtobehighlyproductiveacrossalleconomies,beersdownstreamvaluechainvariessubstantiallyacrosstheglobe.Distribution,retail,andhospitalitysectorsinhighincomecountriesoftenoffermoremodernservicesforexample,throughhigherpersonalisationand

36、digitisationwhichtendtobemorecostly.Thisisbecauserunningtheseservicesrequireshigherinvestmentsandhigheroperatingcosts,aswellasamorespecialisedandexpensivelabourforce.Thedownstreamvaluechainbeingalabour-intensivesectorandaveragelabourwagesbeingrelativelyhigherinhighincomecountriesalsocontributetoexpl

37、ainingthehighervalueaddedinthesecountriescomparedtolowerincomeeconomies.Focusingonemployment,brewerssupported55%ofthetotaljobsimpactbythebeersectorinlowerincomecountries.Inhighincomecountries,however,beersdownstreamvaluechainaccountedfor73%ofthetotaljobsimpact.Becausedownstreambusinessestendtobeless

38、productivethanbrewers,weseeamorebalanceddistributionofthejobsimpactacrosslowerincomecountries.Agricultureisbyfartheindustrybenefitingthemostfromthebeersectorinlowerincomecountries.Oftheindirectgrossvalueaddedsupportedinthesecountries($13billion),22%wasstimulatedintheagriculturalindustry,followedbywh

39、olesaleandretail(13%),andprofessionalandbusinessesservices(10%).Averydifferentpictureisobservedacrosshighincomecountries,wherebusinessesintheprofessionalandbusinessesservicesindustrybenefitthemostfrombeerssupplychainactivities,accountingfor20%ofthetotalindirectcontributiontoGDP.Incontrast,agricultur

40、edidnotfeatureamongthetopfivebeneficiaryindustriesinthesecountries.Similarresultsareobservableintheinducedchannelofimpact;although,astobeexpected,therearehigherimpactsamongindustriestypicallybelongingtotheconsumereconomy,suchasrealestateservices.Theseresultsreflecttheunderlyingstructureoftheeconomya

41、ndhowthisdiffersacrossincomegroups.Fig.4:Beersimpactinhighincomecountries,bychannelandindustry(2019)incomecountriesexported12%numberofjobssupportedFinally,welookedattheextenttowhichthebeersectoranditsupstreamsupplychainsareintegratedintheglobaleconomy,andwhetherthisvariesacrossincomegroups.Thebeerse

42、ctortendstobemoredomesticallyfocusedinlowerincomecountrieswithmostofitsimpactoriginatingfromlocalactivities.In2019,brewersinlowerincomecountriesexported,onaverage,1.4%oftheirproduction,withtheremaining98%ofproductionleftforthelocalmarket.Meanwhile,businessesinthedownstreamvaluechainimportedonaverage

43、2.6%offinishedproductforresale.Incontrast,brewersanddownstreambusinessesinhighincomecountriestendtobemoreintegratedintheglobaleconomy.In2019,onaverage,brewersacrosshighoftheirproductionandbusinessesinthedownstreamactivitiesimported12%oftheirfinalproducts.Overall,weidentifyfivedistinctfeaturesofthebe

44、ersectorinlowerincomecountries.Thefirstisthat,despitehavinganabsolutesmallergrossvalueaddedimpact,thebeersectorcontributesalargersharetoGDPinlowerincomecountries(1.6%)thanhigherincomecountries(0.9%).Thesecondisthatthebeersectorsupportsmorejobsindevelopingcountriesinbothabsolute(6.7millionjobs)andrel

45、ativeterms(1.4%ofnationalemployment).Third,lowerincomecountrieshavelowerlevelsoflabourproductivityandamoreprominentroleofagriculture,helpingexplainthehigherbythebeersector.Fourth,thedownstreamsegmentofthebeersectorismuchlessprominentinlowerincomecountries,accountingfor39%ofthesectorsgrossvalueaddedc

46、ontribution,comparedto62%inhighincomecountries.Andfifth,thebeersectorismuchlessinternationalisedinIowerincomecountries,withthedownstreamsegmentofthebeersectorimportinganaverageofonly2.6%Offinishedproductforresale,comparedto12%inhighincomecountries.Thenextsectionexploresdifferencesinspendingpatternsa

47、crossincomegroupsandhowthesecanexplainsomeoftheseobservations.OXFORDECONOMICS3. BEERCONSUMPTIONBeerisoneofthemostpopularbeveragesconsumedallovertheworld.Inthissectionofthereport,welookatbeerconsumptionpatternsacrossthe70countriesanalysedinourpreviousstudyandfocusonhowthesevaryacrossandwithindifferentincomegroups.3.1 BEERCONSUMPTIONPA11ERNSBasedonEuromonitordataonbeerconsumptionandpopulationdatafromtheWorldBankzweestimatethatzin2019zpercapitaconsumptionofbeeraveraged64litresacrosstheanalysed70countries.Tocons