世界经济论坛-气候危机中的创新与适应：面向新常态的技术（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、IncollaborationwithBostonConsultingGroupWQR1.DECONOMICFQRUMInnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis:TechnologyfortheNewNormalINSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Introduction51 Comprehendrisks(andopportunities)121.1 Dronesfordatacollection141.2 IoTandsensorsfo

2、rdatacollection141.3 Earthobservationforplanetaryintelligence151.4 Artificialintelligence161.5 AR/VRtovisualizeclimateimpacts191.6 Advancedcomputingtopowerintelligence202 Buildresilience212.1 Climate-resilientinfrastructure242.2 Climate-resilientfoodsystems252.3 Resilientglobalsupplychains262.4 Adva

3、ncedearlywarningsystems273 Responddynamically283.1 Thefirst72hours303.2 Alforhumanitariandatallection303.3 Earthobservationforpost-disasteranalytics313.4 Alforpost-crisisdecision-making323.5 Dronestooptimizesearch-and-rescueoperations333.6 Altooptimizemobilityandevacuations334 Multistakeholderllabor

4、ationandkeyenablers354.1 Opensourceistheunlock374.2 Repositioningadaptationtoattractfinance404.3 Policyandregulationasacatalyst41Conclusion42Contributors43Endnotes45DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsa

5、ndconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicFo11jmbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,nor(heentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationma

6、ybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January2024InnovationandAdaptationintheClimateCrisis:TechnologyfortheNewNormalForewordHelenBurdettHamidMaherManagingDirectorandPartner,BostonConsultingGroupHead,TechnologyforEa

7、rth,WorldEconomicForumRecentyearshaveseenextremeweathereventswracktheglobe-fromthe2021floodinginGermanytothispastyear,swildfiresinHawaii,EasternCanadaandAustralia-leavinglittledoubtthattheimpactsofclimatechangearearriving.Theclimatescienceisclearthattheseimpactswillbecomemorevolatile:thecontinuation

8、ofcurrentemissionsandnaturedegradationcorrelatewithincreasedsudden-andslow-onseteventswithinthisdecade.Mitigatinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionshasneverbeenmoreurgent.Atthesametime,communities,businessesandgovernmentsmustadapttopresentandoncomingchanges.Adaptationistheprocessofevolvingtotheeffectsofchan

9、ge-inthiscase,adjustingecological,socialandeconomicsystemstoalleviatetheimpactsofclimatechange.Thisincludescrisisresponseforextremeeventssuchasfloodingandwildfires.Italsoencompassesmulti-faceted,agileapproachesfornavigatingaworldwherereliableclimateandweatherconditionscannolongerbetakenforgranted.1.

10、eadersneednewformsofintelligencetobuildresilienceintotheircommunitiesandbusinesses.Alongtheway,first-moverswillfindthisisnotonlyariskmitigationstrategybutalsoasourceofcompetitiveadvantage.Therearemultipleinterdependentapproachestoclimateadaptation,includingeconomicincentives,policyandregulation,loca

11、lly-ledintervention,andnature-basedapproaches.Technologyisakeyenableracrossallofthem-helpingleadersnotonlytoassessclimateriskbutalsotoidentifysolutionsandtobuildresilienceintherealworld.Data-drivenanddigitaltechnologies,inparticular,willbeacriticalsourceofadaptivevalueprotectionandcreation.Advancesi

12、nthesetechnologies-particularlyartificialintelligence(AI)-havebeenoneofthemajorstoriesof2023.Thisreportoutlinestherolesthatdata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiescanplayinsupportingclimateadaptation,fromstrengtheningriskanalyticsandclimate-proofingsupplychainstopoweringR&Danddiscoveryprocessestoyieldthene

13、xtgenerationofclimatetechnologies.TheTeChforCIimateAdaDtatiOnWorkingGroup,hostedbytheWorldEconomicForumsCentrefortheFourthIndustrialRevolution,convenedtodevelopthisreportandadvanceapplicationsandknowledgerelatedtotechnologyforclimateadaptation.Theworkinggroupincludesleadersandexpertsfromtechnology,i

14、ndustry,thepublicsector,academiaandcivilsociety.Itsmembershavebeenessentialtochartingthescopeofthisreportandbringingdomain-specificinsighttoitschapters.Thereisnotechnologicalsilverbulletforclimatechange.Moretothepoint,thereisnosubstitutefordeepandswiftmitigationofGHGemissions.Theimpactsofclimatechan

15、gearehereandcannotbeignored.Technologyoffersawaytomanagetheseimpacts-toadaptandbringmoreclaritytoanuncertainfuture.ExecutivesummaryTheimpactsofclimatechangeareintensifyinganddata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiescanhelp.Theimpactsofclimatechange-intheformofextremeandslow-onsetevents-areincreasinginfreque

16、ncyandintensity.TheWorldEconomicForum,s2024GlobalRisksReportrankedextremeweathereventsasthesecond-mostsevereriskoverthenexttwoyears-andthemostsevereovera10-yearhorizon.Nearlyhalfoftheworldspopulationisvulnerabletotheimpactsofclimatechange.Virtuallyeverysectoroftheglobaleconomyisexposedtosomedegreeof

17、climate-relatedrisk.Technologyisintegraltobuildingadaptivecapacity,propellinginnovationandbringingnewcapabilitiestoleadersandcommunities.Thereisnotechnologicalpanaceathatcantackleclimatechange;thereisnosubstitutefordeepandswiftmitigationofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.However,technology-specificallyda

18、ta-drivenanddigitaltechnology-canhelpleadersmanagethemountingrisksassociatedwithclimateimpactsandunlocknewopportunitiesalongtheway.Anemergingsetoftechnologies-allsynergisticwithartificialintelligence(AI)andadvancedmputing-supportacomprehensivestrategyforadaptationandplayakeyroleateachstageoftheadapt

19、ationcycle:Comprehendingrisksandopportunities-Al,Earthobservation,theinternetofthings(IoT)anddronesaretransforminghowleadersgather,processandanalyseinformation.ThesetechnologiesprovideintelligenceonhowtheEarthischangingattheplanetarylevelandhowtheimpactsmaybefeltbybusinessesandlocalcommunities.Build

20、ingresilienceagainstclimateimpacts-Alishelpingbuildresilienceintocriticalinfrastructure,suchasfloodmanagementsystems,throughoptimizationandreal-timemaintenance.EarthobservationandIoTarebringingnewprecisiontocriticalresiliencetlssuchasearly-warningsystems.Respondingdynamicallywhenimpactshit-Earthobse

21、rvation,alongwithdrones,canprovideaviewofhard-to-reachareasintheaftermathofanextremeevent.Dronesarealsobeingusedtomakedeliveriesofemergencyaidandsupportsearch-and-rescueoperations.Al,scapabilitiesforpredictionandoptimizationimprovesituationalawareness.Theclimatecrisisdemandsadaptation.Data-drivenand

22、digitaltechnologiesalreadyplayamission-criticalroleinadaptationeffortsacrosstheworld;theyarepoisedforscaledadoptionandgreaterimpactwhensupportedbyopencollaboration,improvedfinancingandanenablingpolicyenvironment.IntroductionTowardsatechnology-ledapproachtoclimateadaptation.Itisofficial-2023wasthehot

23、testyearinrecordedhistory?JunewasthewarmestJuneonrecord,JulythewarmestJuly,AugustthewarmestAugust,SeptemberthewarmestSeptemberandOctoberthewarmestOctober.2Acrosstheyear,roughlyoneineverythreedaysbreachedthe1.5eCthreshold.3Climatechangeisacceleratingatanunprecedentedpace.Thefalloutisevident.4Thenumbe

24、rofextremeweatherevents,suchasheatwaves,wildfiresandhurricanes,hasincreasedinrecentyears.5Ifthesetrendspersist,extremeeventscouldincreaseto5606ayearby2030-1.5aday-representinga40%increaseover2015.7Inadditiontohumansuffering,thecostsarehuge;in20221naturaldisasterscostgovernmentsandbusinessesover$200b

25、illion-40%greaterthantheannualaverageforthepast20years(excludingearthquakes).8Extremeweathereventsarenottheonlyimpactsofclimatechange.Slowonsetevents,9suchasincreasingglobaltemperatures,aredamagingagriculture,biodiversityandhumanhealth.Glaciersandpolaricecapsaremelting,withrisingsealevelsthreatening

26、coastalcommunitiesthrougherosion,floodingandsaltwaterintrusion.Seasonalprecipitationpatternsarechanging,resultingingreaterrainfallinsomeareasanddesertificationinothers.TheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammesDavidJensenstates,hI11manypartsoftheworld,thepredictabilitythatusedtoexistinseasonalweatherpatt

27、ernsissimplygone*.FIGURE1AllindustriesareexposedtosomelevelofclimateriskthroughacuteandchronichazardsInfrastructure阖OilandgasUtilitiesIndustries(selection)AgricultureManufacturingFashionTransportHealthandluxuryFloodingDrought0.tx:g.con.piib!ic；tions-2023Connng-tognps-w,-corporate-clrte-risk.BIn2019,

28、theGlobalCommissiononAdaptationestimatedthatinvesting$1.8trillioninclimateadaptationmeasuresby2030couldyield$7.1trillioninnetbenefits.Climatechangetodaythreatenspeople,businessesandnature.Invulnerableregionsacrosstheworld,between3.3and3.6billionpeopleareexposedtotheimpactsofclimatechange.10Theimpact

29、sofclimatechange,whilefeltglobally,dodependonwhereintheworldyouare.Thevulnerablearehitthehardest/saysChristerSolheimGundersenofNorwegianAgencyforDevelopmentCooperation(NORAD).Inbusiness,$4trillionincorporateassetscouldbeatriskby2030duetotheimpactsofclimatechange.1Nearlyeverysectoroftheglobaleconomyi

30、sexposedtosomedegreeofclimate-inducedrisk(seeFigure1).Inthenaturalworld,sixofnineplanetaryboundarieshavebeencrossed,12paintingagrimpictureoftheEarthshealth.Climatic,naturalandsioeconomicsystemsmaybeclosetotippingpoints,whererelativelysmallchangesleadtoirreversibleshifts.Ashistoryshows,itisnotthestro

31、ngestspeciesthatsun/ivesnorthemostintelligent-butthosemostadaptabletochange.Thus,theseindicatorsnotonlyheightentheurgencyformitigatinganthropogenicimpactsontheclimatebutalsobringattentiontotheneedforpeople,businessesandgovernmentstoadapt.Inrecentyears,studieshaveestimatedtheenomicdamagesassociatedwi

32、thclimateimpactsandthepossiblebenefitsoftacklingthem.In20191theGlobalCommissiononAdaptationestimatedthatinvesting$1.8trillioninclimateadaptationmeasuresby2030couldyield$7.1trillioninnetbenefits.3Basedontheseestimatesandotheranalyses,anincreasingnumberofgovernmentshaveenactedlawsandissuedprotocolsrel

33、atedtoclimateadaptation.Thenumberofcountrieswithnationaladaptationplansisincreasingyear-on-year.14Moreover,theemergenceofclimate-resilientindustriesandtechnologies,suchasresilientagriculture,havepresentedopportunitiesforgovernmentsandbusinessestouclimate-proof,theirfutures.BOX1Climateadaptationdefin

34、itionActionstakentoadjustprocesses,practicesandstructurestomoderatepotentialdamagesortobenefitfromopportunitiesassociatedwiththeeffectsofclimatechange.Notes:1.BasedontheUNFCCCdefinition;2.Encompassesactivitiesreferredtoasudimateresilienceoradaptationandresilience.Numerousadaptationstrategieshavebeen

35、developedtomaketheworldmoreresilienttotheimpactsofclimatechange.Theyrangefrombuildingstrongerinfrastructureanddevelopingearlywarningsystemstoimplementingfloodcontrolmeasuresandchangingagriculturalpractices.Thesestrategiesbroadlyfallintofourgroups:regulatory,economic,socioculturalandnaturebased.Taken

36、together,theseinterdependentstrategiescanbeviewedthroughthelensofwhatclimateandsocialscientistscalladaptivecapacity.15AccordingtoGailWhiteman,ProfessorofSustainabilityattheUniversityofExeterandExecutiveDirectorofArticBasecamp,ttlt,sallaboutbuildingadaptivecapacity.Focusingatthesystemsleveltoadaptour

37、social,ecologicalandeconomicprocesses.Indeed,wecanthinkofadaptationasanongoingprocess.Data-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesareuniquelysuitedtobuildadaptivecapacityandtacklethemulti-variable,complexproblemsinvolvedinclimatedecision-making(seeFigure2).Thesetechnologiescandealwiththeinter-connectednessofna

38、tural,socioeconomicandeconomicsystems,copewithmanyvariablesanddegreesofuncertainty,andalignclimateactionacrossmultipletimehorizonsandimperatives.Onthislaterpoint,NaokoIshii,DirectoroftheCenterforGlobalCommonsattheUniversityofTokyo,says,tlAdaptationneedstotakealong-term,strategicviewpoint.Historicall

39、y,adaptationhasbeenconsideredasashort-termoradhocresponsetospecificevents-separatefrommitigationstrategy.Dataandtechnologycanhelptoalignthesestrategiesforthelong-term.Thisisthekindofintelligencethattheclimatecrisisdemands.FIGURE 2 IGlobalriskslandscapeIntrastateviolenceErosionofhumanrightsTerrorista

40、ttacksInvoluntarymigrationInterstatearmedconflictPollutionChronichealthconditionsInfectiousdiseasesBiodiversitylossandesystemllapse.DisruptionstocriticalinfrastructureCriticalchangetoEarthsystemsExtremeweathereventsNon-weatherrelatednaturaldisastersCensorshipandsurveillanceNaturalresourceshortagesAd

41、verseoutcomesoffrontiertechnologiesTechnologicalpowerconcentrationCyberinsecuritySocietalpolarizationAdverseoutmesofAltechnologiesConcentrationofstrategicresourcesInsufficientinfrastructureandservices1.ackofeconomicopportunityInflationEconomicdownturnBiological,chemicalornuclearhazardsDisruptionstoa

42、systemicallyimportantsupplychain1.aboursrxjrtages.GeoeconomicconfrontationAssKbleburstsznemploymentIlliciteconomicactivityNodesRiskinfluenceHighMedium1.owEdgesRelativeinfluenceHighMedium1.owRiskcategories.Economic.EnvironmentalGeopolicticalSocietalTechnologicalSource:WorldEconomicForum,GlobalRisksPe

43、rceptionSurvey2023-2024,2024Forgloballeaders,publicandprivatealike,data-drivenanddigitaltechnologieswillcreateandprotectvalue.Theywillenableleadersinawiderangeofways,fromsupportingdecision-makingandpoweringscientificdiscoverytochangingbehaviours.Atthesametime,technology-basedadaptationrequirespolicy

44、development,communityengagementandinternationalcooperationtowork.Amultistakeholderapproachisessentialforeffortstoscalerapidlyandadvancetheworldsresponsetoclimatechange.MappingthetechnologylandscapeAsetofdata-drivenanddigitaltechnologiesareemergingasmission-criticaltlsforclimateadaptation.FIGURE 3 Hi

45、gh-leveldefinitionsArtificialintelligence*Familyofmathematicalandcomputersciencetechniques,includingadvancedanalytics,bigdataanalytics,machinelearning,deeplearningandlargelanguagemodels.rv-DronesUnmannedaerialvehicles(UAVs)thatcanbeequippedwithcameras,coverlargedistancesandcarrysmallamountsofphysica

46、lmaterial.然EarthobservationRemote-sensing(e.g.satellites)orinsitutechniques(e.g.weatherstations)forgatheringinformationaboutactivitiesonEarth.三AdvancedcomputingSuper-computing(includingcloud-based)andquantumcomputingprocessesthatenhancecomputepower,accuracyandspeed.琼lNetworkeddevices(includingsensor

47、sandhand-helddevices)thatworktogethertocollectandsharedataandmonitorsystems.TIARVR*Toolsthatprovideimmersiveexperiences,eitherbysuperimposingdigitalfeaturesonphysicalenvironmentsorusinghardware(e.g.headsets)tofullyimmerseusers.Notes:*Extendeddefinitiononp.16.AugmentedrealityvirtalrealityTechnologiesoftheIndustrialRevolutionhavebeenasignificantdriverofclimatechange16-butnewa