世界银行-世界银行通过国际开发协会融资支持就业和劳动力市场改革：第一阶段评估（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashington,DC20433Telephone:Internet:www.worldbank.orgATTRIBUTIONPleasecitethereportas:WorldBank.2024.WorldBankSupporttoJobsand1.aborMarketReformthroughInternationalDevelopmentAssociationFinancing:AFirst-StageEvaluation.In

2、dependentEvaluationGroup.Washington,DC:WorldBank.COVERPHOTOMarwaneZouaidiEDITINGANDPRODUCTIONAmandaO,BrienGRAPHICDESIGN1.uisaUlhoaVondaWitleyThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheview

3、sofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritor

4、yortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.RIGHTSANDPERMISSIONSThematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven.Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,

5、includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications.TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW1Washington.DC20433,USA;fax:；e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.WorldBankSupporttoJobsand1.aborMarketReformthroughInternationalDevelopmentAssociationFinancingAFirst-StageEvaluationJanuary4f2024ContentsAbbrev

6、iationsvAcknowledgmentsviOverviewviiManagementResponsexviReporttotheBoardfromtheCommitteeonDevelopmentEffectivenessxx1. IntroductionITheEvolvingJobsAgendainInternationalDevelopmentAssociationCountries4EvaluationScopeandFramework72. TheInternationalDevelopmentAssociationJobsStrategy15AnalyticalUnderp

7、inning16OperationalRelevance18ResultsMeasurement223. JobsInterventions26PortfolioEvolution27DesignofJobsInterventions35Performance424. ConclusionsandRecommendations50Recommendations5255BibliographyBoxesBox2.1.JobsinFragileandConflict-AffectedSituations20Box3.1.ExampleofApprenticeshipInterventions38F

8、iguresFigure 1.1. Trendsin1.aborForceandEmploymentRatiosforIDACountriesComparedwithIBRDCountries3Figure 1.2. EvolutionofInternationalDevelopmentAssociationJobsStrategy,FY15-226Figure 1.3. ConceptualFramework8Figure 1.4. EvaluationScope9Figure 3.1. IDAJobs-RelatedInvestmentProjectFinancingsandProgram

9、s-for-ResultsbeforeandaftertheShiftinIDAJobsStrategy28Figure 3.2. ChangeinProportionofDifferentTypesofInterventionsinuSynthetic,*JobsPortfolio30Figure 3.3. TopAreasofInterventionsforPriorActionsacrossIDAReplenishments34Figure 3.4. ProjectCountsbyOutcomeRatingsinImplementationCompletionandResultsRepo

10、rtReview43TablesTable 1.1. IDAJobs-RelatedPortfolioby1.endingInstrumentandProjectStatus,FY15-2210Table 1.2. GeographicDistributionofIDAJobs-RelatedInvestmentProjectFinancingandProgram-for-ResultsPortfolio,FY15-2211Table 1.3. PracticeGroupsandGlobalPracticesManagingIDAJobs-RelatedInvestmentProjectFin

11、ancingandProgram-for-ResultsPortfolio,FY15-2212Table2.1.BreakdownofOutcome-1.evelVersusOutput-1.evelIndicatorsofJobsInterventions24Table 3.1. ShareofIDAJobs-RelatedInvestmentProjectFinancingandProgram-for-ResultsPortfolioinTotalIDAProjectsoverIDAReplenishmentCycles,FY15-2228Table 3.2. Cross-GlobalPr

12、acticeCollaborationonJobs-RelatedProjectsbySelectedGlobalPractices32Table 3.3. CollaborationacrossPracticeGroupsonJobs-RelatedProjects33Table 3.4. TypesofJobsInterventionsinthePortfolioandStrengthofEvidence35Table 3.5. IndicatorAnalysis43Table 3.6. ExtentofProblemProjectsintheActiveIDA-FinancedJobs-

13、RelatedandNonjobs-RelatedPortfolios,FY15-2245Table 3.7. ExamplesofJobsOutcomeIndicatorsbyTypesofInterventions48AppendixesAppendix A. Methods64Appendix B. PortfolioIdentificationandAnalysis73Appendix C. Structured1.iteratureReview91Appendix D. ExamplesofJobsPriorActions102Appendix E. FindingsfromRela

14、tedIndependentEvaluationGroupEvaluations106Appendix F. InternationalDevelopmentAssociationJobsStrategyPolicyCommitmentsandResultsIndicators112-ndependemEvacat,nGroUPWorldBankGroUPAbbreviationsCPFCountryPartnershipFrameworkDPOdevelopmentpolicyoperationFCVfragility,conflict,andviolenceFYfiscalyearGPGl

15、obalPracticeIDAInternationalDevelopmentAssociationIDA1717thReplenishmentoftheInternationalDevelopmentAssociationIEGIndependentEvaluationGroupIFCInternationalFinanceCorporationIPFinvestmentprojectfinancingPforRProgram-for-ResultsRMSResultsMeasurementSystemSMEsmallandmediumenterpriseTVETtechnicalandvo

16、cationaleducationandtrainingAUdollaramountsareUSdollarsunlessotherwiseindicated.AcknowledgmentsNUonp一MolnPCImUOQBUJU-qonnoSUUOJaaIXBWOqBqPUBSqorOjlJoddnSUBgPtOMThisevaluationwascarriedoutbyanIndependentEvaluationGroupteamledbyRashmiShankar(leadeconomist).ThereportsmainauthorisEstelleRaimondo(program

17、manager).ThetaskwasconductedundertheguidanceofJeffreyAllenChelsky(manager),thedirectionofTheoThomas(director),andtheoverallguidanceofSabineBernabe(Director-General,Evaluation).ThecoreevaluationteamincludedPatriciaAcevedo(programassis-tant);HarshAnuj(datascientist);DungThiKimChu(programassistant);Sha

18、hrzadMobasherFard(consultant,evaluator);ProfessorGaryFields(consultant,seniortechnicaladviser);PabloFleiss(technicaladviser);1.arsJohannes(senioreconomist);ThomasKenyon(senioreconomist);DorukYarinKiroglu(portfolioanalyst);MelissaMetz(senioreconomist);DenitaPious(researchanalystandconsultant);AndreaR

19、ojas(consultantandevaluator);RashmiShankar(taskteamleaderandleadeconomist);XiaolunSun(seniorevaluationofficer);SandraJaneWark(consultantandevaluator);AndreiWong(portfolioanalystandconsultant);andMarwaneZouaidi(extended-termconsultantandprojectofficer).Thereportwaspeer-reviewedbyDr.GordonBetcherman(p

20、rofessor,FacultyofSocialSciences,SchoolofInternationalDevelopmentandGlobalStudies,UniversityofOttawa)andAbebeShimeles(directorofresearch,AfricanEconomicResearchConsortium,Nairobi,Kenya).TheteamisgratefultotheIndependentEvaluationGroupMethodsteamandtocolleaguesfromtheJobsGroup,GlobalPractices,Interna

21、tionalFinanceCorporation,developmentfinanceinstitutions,OperationsPolicyandCountryServices,andRegions,aswellasexternalstakeholdersforextensiveconsultations.OverviewKeyMessagesThisevaluationrepresentsthefirststageoftheIndependentEvaluationGroup,sassessmentoftheWorldBank,sperformanceinsupportingmore,b

22、etter,andmoreinclusivejobsthroughInternationalDevelopmentAssociation(IDA)financing.Thescopeofthisevaluationisrelativelynarrow,focusingondirectIDAsupporttotheachievementofIDA,sjobsobjectives.Additionalevaluationswouldberequiredtoconsiderthebroaderjobsandeconomictransformationagenda.Theevaluationasses

23、sestheanalyticalunderpinningsandoperationalrelevanceoftheevolvingIDAjobsstrategyandtheextenttowhichithasbeentranslatedintowell-designedandwell-performingjobsinterventionsthatdirectlyaddresstheobjectivesofmore,better,andmoreinclusivejobs.TheIDAjobsstrategysuccessfullystimulatedcountryanalyticsanddiag

24、nosticstofillknowledgegaps.IDApolicycommitmentsadaptedwelltoreflectlearningfromjobsdiagnostics.Mostjobsdiagnosticshaveincorporatedrecommendationsthat(i)feedintooperationalworkandimprovehowCountryPartnershipFrameworksarticulatejobs-relatedobjectivesandtheoriesofchangeand(ii)helpmakejobsmorecentraltoe

25、ngagementswithcountriesaffectedbyfragility,conflict,andviolence.TheenhancedfocusonjobsinIDA,soverallstrategyhasnotbeenassociatedwithasignificantincreaseinthesizeofthejobsportfoliobuthasledtoachangeinthemixofjobsinterventions.Thedesignofmostjobsinterventionswaswellgroundedinanalysis(includingimpactev

26、aluation),andprojectsadequatelycombinedmultipleinterventions.TheIDAjobsstrategyprioritizationofyouthandwomen,semploymentresultedinmorefocusonthesetwobeneficiarygroupsinjobsinterventions.Theuseofjobs-relevantdevelopmentpolicyfinancingprioractionshasincreasedsteadily,yettheyremaininfrequentandhavehada

27、nimpactonlyInone-thirdofvalidatedoperations.However,theIDAjobsstrategy,spromiseOfimprovedresultsmeasurementhasyettobefulfilled.Althoughimpactevaluationsaremorefrequent,resultsframeworkscontinuetotrackoutputsratherthanoutcomes,andmanycountries,labormarketstatisticsarestilllacking.Overall,theperforman

28、ceofjobsinterventionsunderimplementationisontrack.Two-thirdsofjobs-relatedindicatorsinprojectsthathavepassedtheirMid-TermReviewswereontracktomeettheirtargets.However,littleisknownabouttheeffectivenessoftheinterventionsbecauseofweaknessesinresultsmeasurementorincountry-levelstatisticalsystemsmeasurin

29、glabormarketdevelopments.-dependentEVahJationGroUPWor1.dBankGrOUPIXMore,better,andmoreinclusivejobsarecriticalforpovertyreductionandsharedprosperityincountrieseligibleforInternationalDevelopmentAssociation(IDA)financing.Since2014,IDAhasincludedjobsasaspecialtheme,andsubsequentIDAReplenishmentshaveha

30、dwhatthisevaluationtermsan“IDAjobsstrategy,“withexplicitobjectives,aseriesofpolicycommitmentstoachievethem,andresultsindicatorstotrackthem.ThisevaluationisthefirstinapotentialseriestoaddresstheWorldBankscontributiontothejobsagenda,andassuchhasafocusedscope.ItassessestheimplementationoftheIDAjobsStra

31、tegyandanswerstwoquestions.ThefirstistowhatextentIDAzsstrategyonjobswasgroundedinsoundanalytics,adaptive,andoperationallyrelevant.Thesecondistowhatextentthestrategyhasbeentranslatedintorelevantandeffectivejobsinterventionsthatdirectlyaddresstheobjectivesofmore,better,andmoreinclusivejobs.Theevaluati

32、onisbasedonaconceptualframeworkthatidentifiesthreedirect,interrelatedchannelsthroughwhichIDAsupportforjobsobjectivesispursued:actingonlabordemand(includingeffortstoexpandthedemandofprivatesectorfirmsforworkersandcreatetheconditionsforreliableandadequatelyremuneratedself-employment);increasinglaborsu

33、pply(includingeffortstoimprovethemarketableskillsofworkers,expandthelaborforceparticipationofwomen,andsupportyouthemployment);andimprovinglabormarketflexibility(includingpoliciestofacilitatethemovementofworkersfromlower-productivitytohigher-productivityactivitieswithinsectors,andfromlower-value-adde

34、dtohigher-value-addedsectors)andgeographicmobilitywherelackofmobilityisidentifiedasasignificantconstraintinjobsdiagnostics.TheevaluationfocusesonIDA-supportedinterventionsthatdirectlysupportjobsobjectivesacrossthethreeReplenishmentcyclesfromfiscalyears2015to2022.Althoughthestructuralchangeassociated

35、witheconomictransformationislinkedtojobsandgrowth,thescopeofthisevaluationislimitedtothethreemainchannelsforachievingIDAjobsobjectives.Therefore,wedonotevaluatetheimplementationandeffectivenessoftheeconomictransformationagenda,given(i)itsverybroadpurviewand(ii)thedifficultiesinherentinmeasuringthevo

36、lumeandimpactofWorldBankfinancingforeconomictransformationandhowitisintermediatedthroughresultsindicatorsattheprojectorCountryPartnershipFrameworklevels.JoonuuUEUu:UoRBuossvJUEdo-BUOABuJU-no-lInEOjJE受Oqe-JPUBSqoro二OddnSXUegPPoMXThecontributionthroughtheIDAPrivateSectorWindowisalsooutsidethescopeofth

37、isevaluation,whichisbeingpresentedalongsidetheevaluationofthePrivateSectorWindowbytheIndependentEvaluationGroup.InternationalDevelopmentAssociationEvolvingJobsStrategyTheevaluationfindsthat,throughthedeploymentofjobsdiagnostics,the17thReplenishmentofIDA(IDA17)andIDA18policycommitmentshelpedaddresssi

38、gnificantknowledgegaps.Previouscountryanalyticsdidnotfocusonjobs,withlittleattentiontothefactorsthatinfluencelabormarketoutcomesinIDAcountries.Mostjobsdiagnosticsprovidedactionablerecommendations.Intwo-thirdsofcases,theseweretailoredtocountrycontextsando仔eredguidanceonprioritization,evenifveryfewdis

39、tinguishedbetweenshort-termandlong-terminterventions.TherewasalsoarobustfeedbackloopbetweenevidencefromjobsdiagnosticsandsubsequentIDAcycles.Policycommitmentsevolvedovertimetoreflectlearningfromcountryevidenceandexperience-forexample,withrespecttotheimportanceofcomplementinginterventionsaimedatraisi

40、ngproductivityinagriculture(toimproveearnings)withinterventionsthatpromoteagribusiness(tocreatenewjobs)inIDA18.TheIDAjobsstrategyandjobsdiagnosticscontributedtoabetterarticulationofjobs-relatedobjectives,theoriesofchange,andresultsframeworksinCountryPartnershipFrameworks.Whereaspreviouslysupportforj

41、obshadbeenimplicit,typicallyoccurringthroughbusinessenvironmentreforms,accesstofinance,orimprovementinagriculturalproductivity,thestrategynudgedCountryPartnershipFrameworkstowardamoreexplicitandcoherentstatementofthejobsagenda.Thesharperfocusonjobsincountrystrategiesisassociatedwithaslightincreasein

42、therelativesizeoftheportfolio.TheestimatedaverageannualsharesoftheIDAjobs-relatedportfoliointhetotalprojectcountandvalueofcommitmentsofallIDAprojectsincreasedslightlyovertheevaluationperiod.Therewasalsoapronouncedeffectonengagementswithcountriesaffectedbyfragility,conflict,andviolence(FCV).IDA17poli

43、cycommitmentsundertheFCVpillarledtothedevelopmentofaspecificintegratedjobsstrategyforcountriesaffectedbyFCV.Asaresult,thejobsportfolioincountriesaffectedbyFCVputgreateremphasisonyouthemploymentandtheeconomicinclusionofdisplacedpeople.However,theIDAjobsstrategyspromisesofimprovedresultsmeasurementhav

44、enotyetbeenfulfilled.Althoughimpactevaluationsaremorefrequent,resultsframeworkscontinuetotrackoutputsratherthanoutcomes,andmostcountrieslabormarketstatisticsarestilllacking.ThereisaninherenttensionbetweentheIDAjobsstrategysambitionofbettercapturingjobsoutcomesandthesystemsandincentivesunderlyingresu

45、ltsframeworks.AlthoughIDAResultsMeasurementSystemTier2indicatorscaptureintermediateoutcomesfromIDAfinancing,1attheprojectlevel,teamsmaybediscouragedfromincludingappropriateoutcome-levelindicatorsinresultsframeworks,partlyoverconcernsaboutattribution.Drawingontheexperiencewithimprovingthefocusongende

46、rinoperations,IDAResultsMeasurementSystemTier3indicatorscouldalsobettercapturehowwellIDAoperationsarticulateandtrackcontributionstojobsoutcomes.WorldBankanalysishasalsohighlightedsomeofthetechnicaldifficultiesinestimatingtheindirectimpactofIDA,sinterventionsonjobscreated,whichiscomplexanddataintensi

47、ve.2JobsInterventions-ndependentEvacatnGroUPWOrSBankGrOuPIDAcommitmentsprovokedachangeinthemixofjobsinterventionsintheportfolio.First,consistentwiththeIDA19commitmenttohelpremovebottlenecksinsectorswithhighpotentialforprivatesector-ledjobcreation,therewasanincreaseinprojectsaddressinglabordemandinfo

48、rmalfirms,insomecasesaccompaniedbyanexplicitfocusoneconomicdiversificationthroughsupportforspecificvaluechains.Second,therewasashifttowardsupportforagribusinessandagriculturalvaluechains,consistentwithIDA,spriorityofgrowingjobsinthefoodsystem.Third,therewasanincreaseintheproportionofjobs-relevantprojectsthatsoughttheparticipationofyouthandwomenandofprojectsspecificallyseekingtoi