生成式人工智能如何改变商业和社会-奥纬咨询（英）.docx

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1、ExecutiveSummaryWillgenerativeartificialintelligenceusherinagoldenageofproductivityordestroymillionsoflivelihoodsacrosstheglobaleconomy?Willitsetpeopleontonewpathsofpersonalfulfillmentorleadthemintocul-de-sacsoflonelinessandisolation?Willitlifthumanitytonewheightsorsowtheseedsofourcollectivedestruct

2、ion?Dependingonwhomyouask,theanswertoallthosequestionsisyes.Inthe14monthssincethelaunchofChatGPT,ithasntbecomeclearexactlyhowgenerativeAIwilltransformtheworld,onlythatitwillwithbothpositiveandnegativeeffectsonindividuals,families,socioeconomicgroups,businesses,industries,andsocietiesasitrevolutioniz

3、esworkplacesandreorderspersonallives.Manybreakthroughtechnologiescomewithpitfalls.Fireallowedhumanstogatheratnightbutalsobumedvillages.Theautomobilerevolutionizedmobilitybutbroughttrafficfatalities.Theinternetconnectedpeopleinstantlybutgavenewtoolstocriminals.AkeydifferencebetweengenerativeAlandearl

4、ierinnovationsisthatitsverycreatorsarewarningofthepotentialdownsides.ThedualstrandsofpromiseandperilarewoventhroughoutAIcompaniesthemselves;looknofurtherthanthebattleforcontrolofOpenAIforanexampleofthedeepambivalencethatgenerativeAIisproducing.Butthereisopportunityintheambiguity.Thestartinggunoftheg

5、enerativeAIracewasfiredalongtimeago,butChatGPTbroughtarushofnewcompaniesandcountriesintotherace.Businessandgovernmentleaderswilldecidehowmuchofthedevelopmentwillbeopen-sourcedandtransparentversusclosed-sourcedandproprietary.Regulatorswilldecidethepaceandbreadthoftheaction.Consumersandworkerswillbece

6、ntralinthetechnologysadoptionandwillhelpdete11ninehowquicklythebenefitsarecaptured.Withthatinmind,theOliverWymanForumsetouttothoroughlyexaminetheattitudes,perceptions,andmisperceptionssurroundinggenerativeAI.InJuneandNovember,wesurveyedmorethan25,000peopleacrosstheUnitedStates,theUnitedKingdom,Canad

7、a,Mexico,Brazil,France,Italy,Germany,Spain,China(HongKong),India,Indonesia,Singapore,theUnitedArabEmirates,andAustralia.Thefindingshighlighttheconfusionmanypeoplefeel.While96%ofemployeessaidtheybelieveAIcanhelpthemintheircurrentjob,60%areafraiditwilleventuallyautomatethemoutofwork.Some55%ofemployees

8、usegenerativeAIatleastonceaweekatwork,but61%ofusersdonotfinditverytrustworthy.Ofthose61%,40%wouldneverthelessuseittohelpthemmakebigfinancialdecisions,and30%wouldsharemorepersonaldataforabetterexperience.Amidthecacophonyofopinionsandpredictions,thereisagrowingconsensusaroundtheworldthatgenerativeAsin

9、fluenceonboththeworkplaceandtheconsumereconomywillbemassive.ThenewAI-conomyWeestimatethatgenerativeAlcouldaddupto$20trilliontoglobalGDPby2030andsave300billionworkhoursayear.Thepossibilitiesareextraordinary.Fully96%oftheworkerswesun,eyedsaidtheybelievegenerativeAIcanhelpthemintheirjobs.Butasgenerativ

10、eAIreshapestheworkplace,itcouldplacenewstressesonorganizationalstructures.Inall,thebroadcategoryofAIcoulddisplace85millionjobsgloballyby2025,accordingtoanestimatebytheWorldEconomicForum.One-thirdofallentry-levelrolescouldbeautomated;atthesametime,junioremployeesarmedwithgenerativeAImaypotentiallyrep

11、lacetheirfirst-linemanagers,leavingavacuuminthemiddleofthejobpyramid.Asaresult,manyworkersaregrowingmoreanxiousbytheday.Automationisnolongeranarrativeofblue-collarworkersversusrobots.Threeinfivewhite-collarworkersnowfeartheirroleswillbecomeredundantorautomatedasgenerativeAsabilitiesincreasinglyimpac

12、tknowledgejobs.1.efttofester,thisanxiousnesscouldsapmorale:AccordingtotheAmericanPsychologicalAssociation,employeesintheUnitedStateswhoareconcernedaboutAIare68%morelikelytofeeltenseorstressedoutduringtheworkdaythanthosewhoarentworried,andaremorethantwiceaslikelytobelievetheydon,tmattertotheirworkcom

13、munity.Suchfeelings,inturn,couldleadtodecreasingengagementandproductivity,andhigherturnover.ToreapthebenefitsgenerativeAlcanbring,companiesshouldembraceapeople-firstapproach,investinginworkersasmuchas,ifnotmorethan,thetechnology.Employeeswillneedtrainingandsupporttocreatesensibleandintuitiveprocesse

14、salongsidethistechnology.Afterall,theyarethesameoneswhowillusetheinterfaces,updatethesystems,andmanagetheoutputs.Businessleadersneedtobringthemalongbylisteningandaddressingtheirconcerns,andup/reskillingtheiremployeesalongtheway.RadicalchangeforconsumersThegenerativeAIpicturebecomesabitclearerwhenwee

15、xamineitsimpactonconsumersanditswidespreadinfluenceacrossvariousindustries.Healthcareappearstobeespeciallyripefordisruption.Weestimatethatby2030,generativeAIcouldsavedoctorsthreehoursaday,whichwouldallowthemtoserveanadditional500millionpatientsgloballyperyear(assumingtheproductivitygainsgotoservingm

16、orepatients).1.ikewise,weestimatethatupto4(X)millionpatientswillreceivementalhealthsupportasaresultofgenerativeAItherapyservices,democratizingaccessandsparkingglobalinterest.ConsumersareespeciallyeagertoexperiencetherapyforthefirsttimewithgenerativeAl:ofthe77%ofrespondentswhohaveneverdonetherapywith

17、ahuman,nearlyoneinthreereporttheywouldtrygenerativeAItherapyinthefuture.GenerativeAIisalsoemergingasasourceoftrustedadvice.NearlyhalfofconsumerssaidtheywouldplacetheirfaithinAIforbiglifedecisionssuchasbuyingahome.Some36%saidtheypreferAIoverhumansforfinancialadvice,demonstratingthebreadthofservicegen

18、erativeAIcanproduce,evenwhensolvingfortraditionallyhumanneeds.Consumersare23%morelikelytoreportthattheyengagewithgenerativeAIfinancialadviserswiththeaimoffindingconnectionthantheyarewhentheyengagewithhumanones;theyarealsonearlyfourtimesaslikelytobelookingforasenseofpurposeintheirpersonalfinanceswhen

19、engagingwithAIadvisersthanwhentheyengagewiththeirhumancounterparts.Educationisanotherarealikelytobeaffected.Ofthe260millionschl-agedchildrenworldwidewhodonotattendschool,weestimatethatupto100millioncouldgainaccesstoeducationthroughgenerativeAIby2030duetogenerativeAspowertoprovideuniversalaccesstoind

20、ividualizedtutoring.AppslikeHelloHistory,forexample,allowstudentstoengageinphilosophicaldebateswithAristotleorlearnabouttheintricaciesofevolutionarybiologyfromCharlesDarwin.GenerativeAIonedaycouldevenchangethewaypeopleformrelationships,forbetterorworse.Some14%ofconsumerssaidtheypreferinteractingwith

21、AIbecausetheybelievegenerativeAIcanbemoreemotionallyintelligentthanhumans.AppslikeReplikaareredefiningcompanionship,allowinguserstocraftvirtualfriendswhoarealwaystheretolisten.OneinfiveconsumerssaidtheywouldgoonavirtualdatewithanAIpersona.AndalmostoneinthreeconsumerssaidtheywouldpurchaseanAi-powered

22、petcollarthattranslatesanimalsoundsintolanguage,potentiallystrengtheningthebondevenfurtherbetweenpelsandtheirowners.RiskversusrewardisthewrongdiscussionGenerativeAIpresentsincreasinglycomplexrisksfororganizationstomanage.Manyarealreadywell-understood:thepotentialforhallucination,thevagariesofblack-b

23、oxlogicsystems,opportunitiesforcyberattacks,databreaches,improperlytrainedmodels,outputcontrol,copyrightconcerns,andonandon.Othershaven,tbeenimaginedyet;justashumansaredevelopinggenerativeAIsystems,sotoowillthesystemschangehumans,withpotentiallyunforeseenramifications.Companiesandsocietiesmustsetasi

24、dethequestionofriskorrewardandacceptafutureofriskandrewardbuiltonadynamicmodeloftest,measure,andlearn.Theattitudesandbeliefsbeingformednowamongemployersandemployees,consumersandgovernmentswillfeedbackintothemodelsandhelpshapethisfuture.Inthepagesthatfollow,wedelvedeeplyintothesurveydata,pointingoutt

25、hesurprisesandparadoxesamongtheresponses,andofferourbestviewofwheregenerativeAIisheadedandhowitwillaffectbusinesses,employees,andconsumersaroundtheworld.TableofContentsExecutiveSummary2ExploringtheDualitiesofGenerativeAI8Reward/Risk9GenerativeAIischangingeverything,everywhere,allatonce9HowGenerative

26、AIIsChangingtheNatureofWork15PotentiaIZPitfalls18Thepotential:Agoldenageofproductivity18GenerativeAsswiftmarchacrosstheglobalworkforce18Massadoptionmassproductivity26Sohowdowedrivemoreefficientadoption?29Catalyst/Collapse32Reitnagininganewjobpyramid32Thegreatreskillinganemployerandemployeechallenge3

27、8Preparingtodayfortheworkforceoftomorrow41MetamorPhOSiS/Meltdown42Chartingahumaneworkforcejourney42Employeroptimismisloud,employeeconcernislouder43FivekeyprinciplestoleadingwithheartthroughthegenerativeAItransformation49ExploringTomorrowsGenerativeAI-PoweredConsumerUniverse52TheemergingAl-powereduni

28、verse53Keytakeawaysforbusinessleaders55ExcitemenvExistentialism56TheearlydaysofagenerativeAI-poweredfuture56GenerativeAIasthegreatequalizer58Necessity,themotherofinvention60ElevateZErode62IllustratinggenerativeAswide-rangingcapabilitiesacrossindustries62Retail:GenerativeAIasadviceanddecisionsupport6

29、4Media:GenerativeAIascontentcreationandcustomization65Healthcare:GenerativeAIasadviceanddecisionsupportandinformationgatheringandsynthesis66Education:GenerativeAIas(personalized)informationgatheringandsynthesis68Adaptation/Obsolescence70ExploringAs“human”essence71Consumersareheadoverheelsforgenerati

30、veAI71CanAIteachUStobemorehuman?72TheEvolvingRisks81SpeedZSafety84WhatweknowaboutAIrisk84ImpactsandregulatorychallengesofgenerativeAI86ExploringthebroaderimplicationsofgenerativeAIrisks88Riskmitigations90Unknownrisks,beyondgenerativeAI9396MethodologyIntroductionRISKANDREWARD/Exploringthedualitiesofg

31、enerativeAlRewardXS!HRevolution,notevolutionInbiology,thepunctuatedequilibriummodelpositsthatevolutionoccursinsuddenburstsofexplosiveprogressinbetweenlongperiodsoflittletonochange.Thereisaparallelintechnology,whereincrementalprogressisoccasionallyinterruptedbyaninnovationsomassivelydisruptivethatitt

32、ransformssociety.Generativeartificialintelligence(AI)isonesuchadvancement,reshapingbothindustriesandlives.Thequestionishow.GenerativeAIischangingeverything,everywhere,allatonceArtificialintelligencehasexistedfordecades,butitspopularitysoaredwiththelaunchofChatGPTinlate2022.Ilquicklybeganreshapingind

33、ustries,poweringdailytasks,andenhancingproductsthatdefinemodemliving.WhatseemslikemagicareactuallydeeplearningalgorithmsthatenablegenerativeAItocontinuouslyself-oplimizewithouthumaninten,ention.Forinstance,DeepMincTsprotein-foldingAIsurprisedexpertsbyteachingitselfphysicsandchemistryprinciples,allow

34、ingittomakeproteinstructurepredictionsmuchbetterthanhumanexpertscould.Asthesenetworksadvance,theonlyquestionswillbehowfar,andhowfast,generativeAIcanexpanditsdominion.GenerativeIsuppliestoolsandplatformsforinnovationtoflourishGenerativeAldefiesone-size-fits-allinterpretationswithitssheerbreadthofappl

35、ications,fromhealthcareandfinancetoeducationandart.Intransportation,therecouldonedaybeagenerativeAl-poweredurbanspherethatdynamicallyadjustssignalsandroutes,improvingsafetyandeliminatingtrafficjams.Ineducation,generativeAIcoulddemocratizelearningwithlessonsindividualizedtoastudentsuniquestyle,needs,

36、andaspirations.OursurveyrespondentsareeagertoseeAl-acceleratedhealthcareadvancementsaswell,perhapsenvisioningafutureinwhichpersonalizeddiagnosesandtreatmentsareprovidedWillgenerativeAlbeaforcefor:GOODBADEVERYTHINGINBETWEEN$20trillion50%13%bstinglobaleconomyby2030,equivalentto20%oftheglobalGDPtodayof

37、AlexpertsthinkthereisahighchancehumanswillgoextinctduetoAlofpeoplesurveyedexpressinterestindevelopingaromanticbondwithgenerativeAl300billion40%28%workhourssavedgloballyeachyear,equivalenttoanaverageofroughlytwohoursperpersonweeklyofrespondentsbelievegenerativeAlwillworseninequalitiesofpeoplesurveyed

38、believegenerativeAlcancapturethedepthofhumanemotion500million84%56%additionalpatientstreatedbydoctorsduetotimesavingsfrommaturestategenerativeAlby2030ofemployeesreportexposingtheircompanysproprietarydatainthepastthreemonthsofrespondentscouldnttellAl-generatedfakeimagesfromreal*10%chance(nsideredhigh

39、becauseitpertainstoexistentialrisks,whichhavepotentiallycatastrophicconsequences)Source:OliverWymanForum,AlImpacts2022ExpertSurveyonProgressinAlwithnearperfectprecision.Itisalreadybeingusedacrossprofessionsthatoncereliedonlyonpeopleratherthanmachines.Writers,influencers,andartistsnowcantapgenerative

40、AItohelpcrafttheirwork.Butitalsohasresultedinplagiarism,errors,andjobloss.Here,thedualityofgenerativeAIisinfulleffect:ThetechnologypromisestoeliminatemillionsofhoursofmundaneandrepetitivetasksWheredowegofromhere?GenerativeAsarrivalpresentshumankindwithincredibleopportunities(andalsoquestionsthatfreq

41、uentlyleadtosomeanswersandmorequestions).Inthechaptersthatfollow,weexploregenerativeAstransformativeimpactontheworkforceandconsumerspheres,thepotentialopportunities,andhiddenrisks.butalsothreatenstoeliminatetheveryauthorswhobenefitfromitsproductivity.PeopleholdhighhopesforAspotentialtoexpeditehumana

42、dvancementacrossindustries%respondentswhothinkAlwillhelpimprovethefollowinginthenext30yearsQuestion:WhichofthefollowingareasdoyouthinkAlwillhelpimprovemostinthenext30years?Source:OliverWymanForumGenerativeAlSurvey,October-November2023,16untries,N=16,033TTRealorAl?Mostcan,ttellWeaskedrespondentswheth

43、ertheythinkthefollowingimagesarephotographsofreal-lifeObjectsZsceneriesorcreatedbygenerativeAlScififactFactGenerativeAIcanmakeyoumoneyovernight56%,69%,74%.JWWSource:OliverWymanForumGenerativeAlSurvey,October-November2023,16ntries,N=16,033Sci-Fiorfact:Whatisandisn,tgenerativeAl?GenerativeAICBiisaveyo

44、urlifeSource:OliverWymanForumanalysisWheredoesgenerativeAIthinkitstacksuprelativetootherinnovativetechnologies?Thetechnologyisnothingifnotbold.Werecentlyaskedthebest-knownapplication,ChatGPT,toevaluategenerativeAspositionrelativetothemostinfluentialtechnologiesinhistory.ItrankeditselfNo.25,betweenra

45、ilroadsand5G.Timewilltellifthisisbravadoormodesty.EquallyinterestingishowChatGPTpositionedotherinventions,declaringe-commercesupremeoverairconditioningandcloudcomputingabovetheairplane.Rankingeachofthesetechnologicalmarvelsisatrickquestionaseachhasleftanundeniablemarkontheworld.Nonetheless,it,sanint

46、riguingexercise:Aretheserankingsareflectionofthepast,apredictionofthefuture,oramirrorofgenerativeAsownaspirations?Prompt:Considerthetop50mostinfluentialtechnologiesinhumanhistorybasedonfactorsincludingbutnotlimitedtotheinnovativecontribution,economicimpact,andsocialandculturalimpactithashad/willcont

47、inuetohaveonhumanity.Assigneachtechnologyascorefrom1-100,where1isnegligibleimpactand100isthemostinfluentialofallhistory.Note:Impactonhumanityscore0-100Source：ChatGPT4.0AIcangiveusourwildestdreamsandworstnightmares.Whatapivotalpointforhumanitytodecidewhattodowiththisandhowtotreateachother.Biotechnolo

48、gist,US(Man,age58)HowgenerativeAIischangingthenatureofworkGenerativeAIwilllikelytransformworkplacesacrosstheglobaleconomy.Itiselicitingarangeofreactions-fromoptimismaboutunparalleledproductivitygainsandexpandedcreativitytofearsaboutjoblossandpeople,ssenseofpurpose.Acrossindustries,generativeAIalreadyisaugmentinghumancapabilities.1.egalfirmsuseittosynthesizecaselaw;marketersleverageitfortargetedcampaigns;scientistsharnessittoacceleratediscoveries.However,massadoptionofgenerativeAIdoesnotau