争创中国2023：中国对能源安全的追求推动风能和太阳能的发展（英）.docx

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1、ARacetotheTopCHINAGlobal三rABOUTG1.OBA1.ENERGYMONITORGlobalEnergyMonitorisanonprofitresearchorganizationdevelopinginformationonenergyprojectsworldwide.ThroughitsGIObaISOIarPoWerTraCkerandGlobalWindPoWerTraCkerprojects,GlobalEnergyMonitorprovidesannualupdatesondpowerfacilities.GlobalEnergyMonitordatai

2、susedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),theOECDEnvironmentDirectorate,UNEnvironmentProgramme,U.S.TreasuryDepartment,andtheWorldBank.Formoreinformation,visitwww.globalenergymonitor.Qrg.AUTHORSDorothyMeiisaprojectmanageratGlobalEnergyMonitor.MartinWeilisaresearcheratGlobalEnergyMonitor.ShradheyPrasad

3、istheprojectmanagerfortheGlobalWindPowerTracker.KasandraOzMaliaistheprojectmanagerfortheGlobalSolarPowerTracker.IngridBehrsinisthedirectoroftheRenewables&OtherPowerprogramatGlobalEnergyMonitor.AboutthecoverThecoverphotoshowsaphotovoltaicplantandawindturbineinDongtaipondlocatedinYanchengzJiangsuProvi

4、nce,China.ImagefromiStockwithcredittoshenjungong.EditingandproductionEditingcontributionsprovidedbyTedNace,XingZhang,1.auriMyllyvirtazFloraChampenois,DavidHoffman,andCarolinaChau.CopyeditsbyAmandaDeBord.MapsandfiguresdevelopedbyShradheyPrasadandKasandraOzMalia.DesignandpagelayoutsbyDavidVanNess.copy

5、rightholders.CopyrightJune2023byGlobalEnergyMonitor.FURTHERRESOURCESForadditionaldataonproposedandexistingsolarprojects,seeSUmmaryDataoftheGlobalSolarPowerTracker.ForlinkstoreportsbasedontheGlobalSolarPowerTrackerdata,seeRePOrtS&Briefings.ToobtainprimarydatafromtheGlobalSolarPowerTracker,seeDOWnIoad

6、Data.Foradditionaldataonproposedandexistingwindprojects,seeSUmmaryDataoftheGlobalWindPowerTracker.ForlinkstoreportsbasedontheGlobalWindPowerTrackerdata,seeRCPortS&Briefings.ToobtainprimarydatafromtheGlobalWindPowerTracker,seeDOWnlOadData.Supplementaryinformationonthemethodologyusedincalculationsfort

7、hisreportcanbefoundonourmethodologywikipage.ACKNOW1.EDGEMENTSThisreportwasmadepossiblewithsupportfromtheQuadratureClimateFoundation.MEDIACONTACTDorothyMeiProjectManager,GlobalEnergyMonitor+1dorothy.mciglobalcncrgymonitor.orgPermissionszcopyrightThispublicationmaybereproducedinwholeorinpartandinanyfo

8、rmforeducationalornonprofitpurposeswithoutspecialpermissionfromthecopyrightholders,providedthatacknowledgementofthesourceismade.NouseofthispublicationmaybemadeforresaleorothercommercialpurposewithoutthewrittenpermissionoftheARacetotheTop:ChinaCHINASQUESTFORENERGYSECURITYDRIVESWINDANDSO1.ARDEVE1.OPME

9、NTDorothyMeizMartinWeil,ShradheyPrasad,KasandraO,MaliazandIngridBehrsinSUMMARYWithitsfocusonrenewableenergydevelopmentoverthepast15years,Chinahasbecometheglobalrenewableenergyleader,hostingnearlyhalfoftheworldstotaloperatingWindandSolarcapacity.Thisambitiouspushhasbeengeographicallywidespread:everyp

10、rovinceandmostcountiesaredevelopinglargeutility-scale1solarandwindpower.Megawindandsolarbases,primarilysituatedinChinasnorthernandnorthwestdeserts,anchorChinasrenewableenergyambitionsandboastaprospectivecapacitygreaterthanthe2022totaloperatingwindandsolarCaPaCityoftheUnitedStates.Thesebaseswillserve

11、asthecenterpieceofChinasrenewableenergyexpansionandacornerstoneofthecountrysoverallenergysecuritystrategy.Chinahasskyrocketedtothetopoftheglobalwindandsolarleaderboardthroughacombinationofincentivesandregulatorymeasures.Asitlookstothefuture,thecountryispoisedtomaintainitsleadershippositionbyimplemen

12、tingambitiousinitiativesthatembraceinnovativeapproachestoaddresstheintermittentandvolatilenatureofwindandsolarpower,thusensuringamoresecureenergyfuture.KeyTakeaways: Chinazsoperatinglargeutility-scalesolarcapacityhasreached228GWmorethantherestoftheworldcombined.Themajorityoftheseinstallationsareconc

13、entratedinthenorthernandnorthwestprovincesofChina,withShanxi,Xinjiang,andHebeirankingasthetopthreeprovincesintermsoflargeutility-scalesolarcapacity. China/scombinedonshoreandoffshorewindcapacityhasdoubledfromwhatitwasin2017andnowsurpasses310GW.ThehighestconcentrationofoperatingwindcapacityinChinaisi

14、nthenorthernandnorthwesternregions.InnerMongolia,HebeizandXinjiangarethetopthreeprovincesintermsofoperatingwindcapacity.1.GEMcatalogsallsolarinstallationsgreaterthan20MWandallwindinstallationsgreaterthan10MW.- Operatingoffshorewindcapacityhasreached31.4GWzandaccountsforapproximately10%ofChina,stotal

15、windcapacityandexceedstheoperatingoffshorecapacityofallofEurope.- Approximately379GWofprospectivelargeutility-scalesolarcapacityandthebulkofthe371GWofprospectivewindcapacityidentifiedarescheduledforinstallationbytheendof2025.Itisthereforehighlylikelythattheprovincialtargets(approximately1,371GWforwi

16、ndandsolar)willbeachieved,surpassingthecentralgovernmentstargetoflz200GWwellaheadof2030.Thisprospectivecapacityisenoughtoincreasetheglobalwindfleetbynearly50%andgrowgloballargeutility-scalesolarinstallationsby85%overcurrentlevels.Chinaisnowactivelypromotingpowerstorageinconjunctionwithnewwindandsola

17、rfarms,exploringintegratedgeneration,storage,andloadmanagementsystems,andbuildingdozensofgreenhydrogenplantsusingrenewableenergyasthepowersource.- Whileallthesetechnologieshavethepotentialtomitigatetheintermittencyofwindandsolarpowergeneration,thecurrentpaceandscalearenotyetsufficienttoensurethatcoa

18、lbecomesatruly“supporting“powersource.Ascurrentlyconceived,thenewrenewablesmega-basesinthenorthwestarelikelytobundlewindandsolargenerationwithclosetoequalamountsofelectricityfromnewlybuiltcoal-firedstations.1. REGIONA1.BACKGROUNDDespitebeingtheworldsIargeStenergyconsumerandgreenhousegasproducer,Chin

19、ahasemergedasagloballeaderinrenewableenergyinrecentyears.ChinanowholdsthetoppositionforbothwindandSOlarenergy,witheachaccountingformorethanone-thirdoftheworldstotalcumulativeinstalledcapacity.Sincetheearly2000sztheChinesegovernmenthasheavilyinvestedinrenewableenergyasawaytoaddressthecountryzsgrowing

20、energydemandsandpollutionissues.AsreportedbyB100mbergNEF,globalinvestmentinrenewableenergyin2022approachednearlyhalfatrillionUSdollarsforthefirsttime,withChinaaccountingfor55%oftheworldstotal.Specifically,Chinahasinvested$164bi11ioninnewsolarinstallationsand$109billioninnewwindinstallations,surpassi

21、ngthecombinedinvestmentfigurefromboththeUSandEurope.Toachieveitsstatedgoalofpeakingcarbonemissionsbefore2030andachievingcarbonneutralitybefore2060,Chinaisacceleratingitspushtowardsrenewableenergy.GlobalEnergyMonitorsGlObaISolarPQwCrTraCkCrandGlobalVVindPcwcrTrackcrhaveidentifiedapproximately379GWofp

22、rospectiveProspectiveprojectsareanyprojectsthatareeitherannounced,inpre-construction,orunderconstruction.The14thFive-YearPlanreferstothefive-yeareconomicandsocialdevelopmentplanofChinacoveringtheperiodfrom2021to2025.largeutility-scalesolarpowercapacityand371GWofprospectivewindpowercapacity,whichisro

23、ughlyequaltoChinascurrentinstalledoperatingcapacity.Themajorityoftheseprojectsareexpectedtobecompletedwithinthe14thFivC-YCarPlan(2021-2025)/withsomeadditionallarge-scaleinitiativesanticipatedtobefinalizedbefore2030.Withsuchasubstantialpipelineofprojectsunderway,China,sworld-leadingrenewableenergydri

24、veissettonotonlycontinue,butlikelyeventoaccelerate.2. OPERATING1.ARGEUTI1.ITY-SCA1.ESO1.ARANDWINDCAPACITYINCHINANationaloperatingcapacityoverviewAsofthefirstquarterof2023,GEM,sGlobalSolarPowerTrackercatalogsnearly228GVV4ofoperatingworldwide.Thisfigurerepresentsapproximately75%ofthecombinedlargeutili

25、ty-scalesolarcapacityoftheentireAsianregionand52%ofthegloballargeutility-scalesolarcapacity.Chinascombinedonshoreandoffshorewindcapacityhaveexceeded310GW/whichisroughlyequaltothewindcapacityoftheothertopSeVenCOUntrieSglobally,combined.Notably,operatingoffshorewindcapacityhasreached31.4GW,representin

26、gapproximately10%ofChinastotalwindcapacity,andnearlyequivalenttotheUnitedStates,prospectiveoffshorewindcapacity(36GW).Althoughbothsolarandwindcapacitiesareincreasingannually,therateOfgrowthforlargeutility-scalesolarismorethantwicethatofwind.In2022,thegrowthofcommissionedlargeUtility-SCalesolarwasrou

27、ghly22%,whilewindexperiencedagrowthof9%(Figures1and2).Figure 1: Totaloperatinglargeutility*scalesolarcapacitybyyear250Figure 2: Totaloperatingonshoreandoffshorewindcapacitybyyearso*IWnUc4. Chinareportedatotalof392GWofcumulativeoperatingsolarinstalledattheendof2022.Thisfigureisforallsizesofsolarinsta

28、llations,includingrooftop,CommerCiaI/industrial,andSmalIer-SCaIeUtiIityaswellaslargeutility-scale.GEM,ssolartrackeronlyincludeslargeutility-scalesolarfarmPhaSeSwithacapacityof20MWorgreater.5. Chinareportedatotalof365GWofcumulativeoperatingwindinstalledattheendof2022.Thisfigureisforallprojectsregardl

29、essofsize.GEM,swindtrackerisspecificallyfocusedonwindprojectswithacapacitythresholdof10MWorgreater.Provincialdistributionoflargeutility-scalesolarandwindcapacityMostoperatinglargeutility-scalesolarinstallationsareconcentratedinChinasnorthandnorthwestprovinces(Map1.onthenextpage).Shanxi,Xinjiang,andH

30、ebeioccupythetopthreepositions.Shanxiprovince,formerlyknownasChina,sCoalcapital,nowleadsthecountryintermsofoperatinglargeutility-scalesolarcapacity.Remarkably,ithostsnearly19GWofcommissionedlargeutility-scalesolarcapacity.XinjiangandHebeiprovinces,bothabundantinrenewableenergyresources,areclosebehin

31、d,contributingapproximately17GWand16GWofoperatingcapacity,respectively.Thecombinedcapacityofthesetopthreeprovincesamountsto52GW,surpassingthetotaloperatinglargeutility-scalesolarcapacityoftheUnitedStatesin2022.China,snorthernandnorthwesternregionsfeaturethemostoperatingwindcapacity(Map2,onthenextpag

32、e).Asofthefirstquarterof2023zInnerMongolialeadsChinazsprovinceswithapproximately41GWofoperatingonshorewindcapacity.HebeiandXinjiangsecurethenexttwopositionszeachproviding22.9GWofoperatingwindcapacity.Thecombinedcapacityofthetopthreeprovincesalone(approximately87GW)exceedsthecombinedCaPaCity(62GW)ofo

33、peratingwindinstallationsinBrazil,Spain,andCanada.Intermsofoffshorewind,themajorityofthecapacity(75%)islocatedintheprovincesofJiangsu,Guangdong,andFujian.Amongtheseprovinces,JiangsuzwhichisalsohometothelargestoffshorewindfarminChina(JiangSUQieiOngOffShOreWindfaen),standsoutasthelargestcontributor,ac

34、countingforabout12GWzor37%ofthetotal.GuangdongandFujiancomeinsecondandthird,withtheseprovincescontributing8.5GWand3.5GW,respectively,toChinastotaloffshorewindcapacity.Figure 3: Operatinglargeutility-scalesolarandwindcapacitybyprovinceCapacity(GW)O5101520ShanxiXinjiangHebeiQinghaiNingxiaInnerMongolia

35、ShaanxiGuangdongGuizhouGansuHubeiAnhuiShandongGuangxiJiangXiZhejiangJiangsuHenanYunnanHeilongjiangJilinHunanSichuan1.iaoning-IMiTibetTianjinHainanFujian-Chongqing/ShanghaiHBeijingTOperating1.argeUtility-scaleSolarCapacity(GW)Q-2?3?”InnerMongoliaHebeiXinjiangShandongJiangsuShanxiGansuGuangdongHenanNi

36、ngxlaYunnanUaoningJilinHeilongjiangHunanShaanxiGuangxidMMQinghaiFujianHubeiSichuanGuizhou-iHJiangxiAnhuiZhejiang-Tianjin-Chongqing-flShanghai4OperatingOnshoreWind吧?OperatingOffshoreWindIInPrTD3. PROSPECTIVE1.ARGEUTI1.ITY-SCA1.ESO1.ARANDWINDCAPACITYINCHINAaaaaaaOoooo108642(Mo)3PedS1400-1200-Nationalp

37、rospectivecapacityoverviewInDecember2020,PresidentXiJinpingintroducedacommitmenttobuildover1,200GWofsolarandwindpowerby2030andtoachieve25%non-fossilfuelusageinitsprimaryenergyby2030.Inpractice,meetingthe25%targetrequiresmuchmorethanlz200GWofwindandsolar.Nonetheless,thiswasacrucialmovetowardachieving

38、ChinasdualCarbOrrcommitment,whichaimstopeakcarbondioxideemissionsbefore2030andachievecarbonneutralitybefore2060.Toachievethesegoals,boththecentralgovernmentandprovincialgovernmentshavemappedoutambitioussolarandwindtargetsforthe14thFive-YearPlan.Thenational14thFive-YearPlanhasreassertedChinasdedicati

39、ontoachievingitsrenewableenergytargetsbyrampingupthedeploymentofsolarandwindprojects,whileprovincialgovernmentsthroughoutthecountryhaveestablishedmorespecificandambitioustargetsforwindandsolarTheprovincialtargetsforsolarenergyencompasscumulativecapacityacrossallsizesandscales,fromlarge-scaledowntorf

40、topinstallations.energy,aimingtoachievethemby2025.CombiningtheactualtargetsreleasedbymostprovinceswithestimatesForfurtherdetailspleaseseeour7tethodologyPage.forprovinceswithvagueorundisclosedtargets,thecumulativeprovincialwindandsolartargets,acrossallthresholds,amounttoapproximatelylz371GWby2025zass

41、howninTable1(onthenextpage).Asofthefirstquarterof2023,GEMhasidentifiedapproximately371GWofprospectivewindcapacityand379GWofprospectivelargeutility-scalesolarcapacity.Thesefiguresarecontinuouslygrowingasnewprojectsareannouncedandpublicized.Chinahasdemonstratedatrackrecordofsurpassingitsrenewableenerg

42、ydevelopmentgoalsinthepreviousthreeFive-YearPlans(llthFYPz12thFYPzand13thFYP).Giventhishistoryandthecommitmenttomeetthez,dualcarbonz,targets,theannouncedprojectsarehighlylikelytobesuccessfullyimplemented.Ifallprospectiveprojectsarebuiltandcommissionedasplanned,inadditiontothealreadyoperatingcapacity

43、thatGEMhasidentified(largeutility-scalesolar228GWzwind310GW)Chinawilllikelyachieveandpotentiallysurpassits2030targetof1,200GWofcumulativewindandsolarcapacityfiveyearsaheadofschedule.BecauseGEMonlytracksprojectsthatmeetacapacitythresholdof20MW,thetotalamountofallscalesofsolarinstalledby2025,shouldall

44、largeutility-scaleprojectscometofruition,willbesignificantlylargerthanwhathasbeenidentifiedbyGEM.Figure 4: China,soperatingandforecastedsolarandwindcapacityinrelationtoits2030CentralGovernmentTargetForfurtherdetailsonthisfigurepleaseseeourMethOdolCgYFage.1600-CentralGovernment2030TargetGEMProspectiv

45、eSolarAdditionalOperatingSolarBGEMOperatingSolarGEMProspectiveWindAdditionalOperatingWindGEMOperatingWindTable1:WindandsolarcapacityinChina:Operatingcapacity,prospectivecapacity,and14thFiveYearPlantargets,listedalphabeticallybyprovince10111ProvinceSolarOperatingCapacity(MW)Forfurtherdetailsandrefere

46、ncesonthistablepleaseseeourMethOdolOgyPage.Theprovincialtargetsforsolarandwindenergyarefromofficialsourceswhereavailable.Provincialtargetshighlightedinorangecolorwereestimatedwhereofficialprovincialtargetswereunavailableorunspecified.ForfurtherdetailspleaseseeourMelhOdologyPage.GEM,ssolarcapacityval

47、uesarefromlargeutility-scaleprojectsanddonotincludeanycapacitiesfrominstallationsbelow20MW.Theprovincialtargetsforsolarenergyencompasscumulativecapacityacrossallsizesandscales,fromlarge-scaledowntorooftopinstallations.SolarProspectiveCapacity(MW)12China14thFYPCumulativeSoIarTargetuWindOperatingCapacity(MW)WindProspectiveCapacity(MW)China14thFYPCumulativeWindTarget(MW)China227,761378,622771,551310,274371,075599,080Anhui9,9567,69228,0004,3065,2738000Beijing51202l5102360300Chongqing4254001,8501.0937501850Fujian451455,0007,0856,0689000Gansu11,36420,39341,69018,37720,74638530Guangdong11,677