绘制美国活动中心的地图（英）.docx

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1、OCTOBER2022BBrookingsMetroANNETANORoeUUHBASSCENTER11MTRANSFORMATIVEP1.ACEMAKIMOMAPPINGAMERICAjSACTIVITYCENTERS:THEBUI1.DINGB1.OCKSOFPROSPEROUS,EQUITAB1.E,ANDSUSTAINAB1.EREGIONSTracyHadden1.oh,DWRowlands,AdieTomer,JosephKane,andJenniferVeyCONTENTIntroduction3Whydoesthegeographyofactivitymatter?5Whata

2、reactivitycenters?7Ourmethodology8Keyfindingsfromouractivitycenteranalysis13Finding1:Activitycentersaremoreactive,containinganoutsizedshareofmetropolitanassets13Finding2:Activitycentersaremoreproductive,withgreaterdensityleadingtohighergrossmetropolitanproduct16Finding3:Activitycentersaremorevaluabl

3、e,withhighercommercialandresidentialrealestateassessments17Finding4:Activitycentersaremoreaccessibleandinclusivetometroarearesidents18Finding5:Activitycentershavemoresustainabletraveloutcomes,withlessdrivingandmorewalkingandbiking22Implicationsforpractice25Implication1:Nurturingaproductive,innovativ

4、eeconomicecosystem25Implication2:Supportinganaccessible,flexible,andsustainablebuiltenvironment26Implication3:Fosteringaninclusiveandequitablesocialenvironment26Implication4:Encouragingalocallyorganizedcivicinfrastructure26Conclusionandareasforfutureresearch27Acknowledgements28IntroductionAsthesayin

5、ggoes,threethingsmatterinrealestate:location,location,location.Citiesandmetropolitanareasarebuiltaroundassetssuchastransportationnodes,employmenthubs,culturalattractions,politicalandreligiousinstitutions,andhealthfacilitiesallofwhichtendtoclusterinspecificlocations.Theabilitytodeveloptheplacesthatco

6、ncentratetheseassetshasalwaysbeenakeyingredienttobuildingproductiveandthrivingmetroareas.Butafterdecadesofsuburbanization,activitydoesnotconcentrateinthesamewaysitoncedid.Metropolitanareasarenolongerstructuredalongalinearcontinuum,fanningoutwardfromadistinctdowntowntoedgelesssuburbiatoruralcountrysi

7、dedottedwithafewtowncenters.Theyinsteadcontainconstellationsofasset-richplaces,typicallysurroundedbyhousing-onlydevelopmentsoramixofresidentialandcommercialsprawl.1Thislong-standingconceptofmetropolitangeographyasalinefromasingularurbancentertosuburbstofarms-andconceivingofthesuburbsasexclusivelyres

8、identialplacesisnolongeraccurateintheageofAmericanmegaregions.Overtime,thedispersionofassetsandactivitieshasstretchedthedistancesbetweenpeopleandopportunity,oftenleadingtogreatereconomicandracialinequality.2Morerecently,theemergenceofrapidtelecommunicationsandaglobalpandemichaveledtonewuncertainties

9、aboutwhatkindsofplaceswillbeindemandinthefuture.Atatimewheneconomicandclimate-relateddisruptionsseemtocomeevermorefrequently,itiseasytolosetrackofthefactthatthebuiltenvironmentchangesquiteslowly.Assuch,industrial,cultural,andenvironmentalshiftsinthedecadestocomewillprimarilyoccurwithinexistingplaces

10、andalongsidetheinfrastructurewe,vealreadycreated.But,asinthepast,theimpactsofthoseshifts-forgoodandforill-willstillbeinfluencedbythechoiceswemaketodayregardinghowandwhereweprioritizefutureinvestments.Allthismakesitessentialthatthefieldofmetropolitandevelopmentparticularly,practitionersandappliedrese

11、archershasacontemporaryunderstandingofwhatpeopleandtheeconomyneedfromplace,howthoseneedsexpressthemselvesonthelandscape,andhow,then,thefieldshouldrespondtothem.Inotherwords,weneedtoestablishbothanewmapandanewvocabularyforAmericaneconomicgeography.Onemajorobstacleisthatthereisnoconsistentschemetocomp

12、arewhereactivityconcentrateswithinmetropolitanareasorwhatkindsofplaceswithwhattypesofattributes-canbestsupportsharedprosperityandresilience.Inthisreport,weintroduceanewmethodologytolocateandcharacterizeactivitycenters:placeswithinregionswhereeconomic,physical,social,andcivicassetsclusterataclearlyde

13、finedhyperlocalscale.3Wepresentatypologyofactivitycenters,maptheirlocationswithinthe110U.S.metropolitanstatisticalareas(MSAs)withatleast500,000residentsusingcensusblockgroups,andanalyzethosecenterstohelpplanners,realestateprofessionals,andelectedleadersbetterunderstandhowandwhytheymatter.Wefindthat:

14、 Metropolitanareasconcentrateassetsinactivitycenters.Withinthemetropolitanareasinourstudy,activitycentersoccupyjust3%ofallland,yetholdafarhighershareofassetsandtheirassociatedactivities.Forexample,40%ofallprivatesectorjobslocatewithinactivitycenters,andinstitutionalassetsincludingcollegeanduniversit

15、ystudents,hospitalbeds,andmajorintercitytransportationnodesarealmostexclusivelyfoundintheseareas. Metropolitanareasthatconcentratejobsinactivitycentersaremoreproductive.Ouranalysisrevealedaclearandpositiverelationshipbetweenactivitycenterjobdensityandproductivity,asmeasuredbygrossmetropolitanproduct

16、(GMP)perworker.Every1,000jobspersquaremileinametroareasmedianactivitycenterwasassociatedwithanadditional$11723inoutputperworkeracrossthemetroarea. Activitycentersyieldavaluepremium.Activitycentershavefourtimesthecommercialrealestateassessedvaluerelativetodevelopedlandarea.Fortwo-thirdsofmetroareas,h

17、ousingnearactivitycentersisworthaweightedaverageof26%more.Inthreehigh-growthmetroareas(Raleigh,N.C.,Deltona,Fla.,andtheWashington,D.C.area)thesehousingpremiumsexceed50%. Activitycentersaremoreaccessibleandinclusive.Thevastmajorityofmetropolitanresidentsinthevastmajorityofmetroareas一livewithin3mileso

18、fanactivitycenter,andthisisevenmoretrueforpeopleofcolorandlow-incomehouseholds. Activitycentershavemoresustainabletraveloutcomes.Theseareasarereachablebytwiceasmanybusandtrainridersasotherblockgroups.Activitycentersthemselveshavehigherwalkabilitythantheirmetroareasasawhole,whichcontributestothefactt

19、hatbothcommuteandnon-commutetripsbycarareshorterwhenstartinginactivitycentersversusotherplaces.Thispaperrepresentsacriticalstepinhelpingplannersandotherpractitionerscompareactivitycentersacrossdifferentmetroareas.Intheprocess,thefindingsmakethecasetobuildonexistingassets(bothliterallyandfiguratively

20、)wheneverpossible,ratherthanprioritizinglow-densityand/orsingle-usedevelopment.Itconcludesbypointingtohowleaderscanusethisinformationtoadvancetransformativeplacemakingwithinactivitycentersandbydoingso,increaseregionalcompetitiveness,enhancesustainabilityandresilience,andimprovethesocialandphysicalwe

21、llbeingofallmetroarearesidents.4Whydoesthegeographyofactivitymatter?Metropolitanareasaredesignedtosupportactivity.TheyhouseanoutsizedshareoftheAmericanpopulation,andtheirindustriesgenerateanevengreatershareofeconomicoutput.5Metroareasarethesitesforclustersofculturalassets,educationalinstitutions,and

22、governmentoperations.6Theyarealsologisticshubsfortheuntry,stradeingoods,andtravelcentersfortouristsandbusinesspeople.7Datapointafterdatapointaffirmshowmucheconomicandsocialactivityconcentratesinourmostpopulatedareasofthecountry.Yettheshapeofmetropolitanactivityisnotconsistent.Demandsforindustrialand

23、commercialland,housingpreferencesamongresidents,consumertastesforretailandrecreationalamenities,andevennaturaltopographyarejustsomeofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencepreciselywhereallthosemetropolitanactivitiestakeplace.Thesefactorshavehelpedcreateawide-rangingeconomicgeographyacrossmetropolitanAmerica.S

24、omemetroareasusefarlesslandthanothers.Forexample,metropolitanPhiladelphiahas2.5%moreresidentsthanmetropolitanAtlanta,butthelattercovers88.6%moreland.8Meanwhile,evenwithinthesamemetroarea,itscommontofindcompletelydifferentformssupportingthesamekindsoflanduses:Chicagosautomobile-orientedsuburbsfunctio

25、nfardifferentlythantheolderneighborhoodswithinamileortwoofthe1.oop,thecity,sfamouscentralbusinessdistrict,eventhoughbothsupportresidential,commercial,andrecreationalactivities.9Itsunderstoodthatthesameactivitieswilllookdifferentinplaceswithdifferentgeographies.Thegeographicvariabilityofmetropolitana

26、ctivity,then,hasmajorimplicationsforhowmetroareasoperate,thepractitionerswhoguidetheirdevelopment,andtheresidentsandbusinesseswhocalltheseplaceshome.Existingresearchdemonstratessomeoftheseimplications.Forone,theshapeofactivitydirectlyimpactslocalandevenstatefiscalconditions.Dependingontaxpolicies,th

27、elocationanddensityofindustrieswilldeterminewhichlocalgovernmentsllectincome,sales,andpropertytaxrevenuesandtherelativecollectionpotentialperacre.Therearesimilartaxconcernsformunicipalitiesthathostmajornonprofitinstitutionslikehospitalsoruniversities,whichmayattractsizableactivitybutgeneratereducedt

28、axrevenues.Ontheothersideoftheledger,metropolitangeographyinfluencesthepricetagassociatedwithprovidingmunicipalinfrastructure.Thecoststobuildandmaintainhighwaysarentthesameascommuterrailorsidewalks,andpublicwaterutilitiesorprivateenergyandbroadbandcompanieswillhavedifferentinvestmentneedsbasedonthed

29、ensityofdevelopment.Finally,patternsofconcentrationand/ordispersionimpactthesizeandviabilityofmarkets,whichaffectsemployersandretailersintermsoftheircosts,revenuepotential,andultimately,thepayrollandsalestaxestheygenerate.Thegeographyofeconomicactivityalsodirectlyimpactstheindustrialcompetitivenesso

30、fametroarea.Economistshavelongstudiedthepowerofagglomerationthetendencyofsimilarormplementaryfirmstolocateinclosephysicalproximitytogeneratepositiveeconomicreturnstotheimpactedfirmsandthesurroundingarea.10Concentratingactivitywithincertainneighborhoodscanproducegreatereconomicvaluebyfacilitatingcoll

31、aborativeresearchthatyieldsnewproductsandservices;italsolowerscostsbyfacilitatingthesharingofinputslikefreightneedsoraccesstoacommonlaborpool.11Densityandproximitycanalsogeneratemoreinnovation:A2017Brookingsreportshowedthat,onaper-studentbasis,researchuniversitieslocatedinthedowntownsofthe100largest

32、U.S.citiesreceived120%morepatentsandspunoff70%morestartupsthanresearchuniversitieslocatedinsmallertowns,suburbs,orruralareas.12Environmentalconditions,too,areaffectedbythespatialpatternsofactivity.Sprawlingneighborhoodsandmetroareastendtogeneratehighervehiclemilestraveledperpersonthanhigher-densitya

33、reas,leadingtomoregreenhousegasemissionsandmoredangeroustransportationsystems.13Moreover,buildingsthatarefurtherapartandlowerinheighttendtousemoreenergyperperson.141.ow-density,autocentricdevelopmentpatternsarealsoassociatedwithothernegativeecologicalimpacts,includinggreaterstormwaterrunofffromimper

34、vioussurfacesandlossofnaturalhabitatsfromurbanlanddevelopment.15Putallthistogether,anditisclearthatwhereandhowdevelopmentoccurshasaprofoundinfluenceoneconomicequityandinclusion.Fiscallystableregionscaninvestmoreinpublicgoods-fromschoolstoparksthatbenefitchildrenandfamilies.Moreeconomicallycompetitiv

35、eregionsgrowandattractjobsrequiringvaryingskillsandeducationallevels;whenthosejobsaremoreproximatetowherepeoplelive,transportationcoststhesecond-highestexpenseformanyhouseholdsarelower.16Andmoresustainableregionsarelesspronetothehealth,safety,andeconomicimpactsofenvironmentaldisastersandclimatechang

36、e,towhichlow-incomeneighborhoodsandpeoplearemostvulnerable.Theextenttowhichinternalgeographycaninfluencemetropolitanareasprosperity,resilience,andequityunderscorestheneedtotakeafreshlookathowandwhereactivityislocatedwithinthem-andidentifytheregionalactivitycenterswhereeconomic,physical,social,andciv

37、icassetsmostclusterandconnect.Whatareactivitycenters?Whiletheirspatialpatternsofactivityvaryconsiderably,onthewhole,thevastmajorityofspaceinU.S.metropolitanareasischaracterizedbylow-intensity,segregatedlanduses.Today,onlyonein12peopleworkwithin2kilometers(-1.25miles)oftheirresidence;onlyoneinninejob

38、sareincentralbusinessdistricts(CBDs);andjustoneinsevenjobsareinsubcentersoutsideCBDs.Threeinfourjobsareoutsideofemploymentcentersaltogether.17Yetamidallthisdispersionareplaceswherelarge,diversemixesofassetsconcentrate.Theseclustersvaryinsizeandshapeandplaydifferentrolesintheirrespectiveregionalecono

39、mies.18Forexample,industrialandmanufacturingactivitiesstillclusteraroundfreightinfrastructure.19Publicadministrationofficesarestillconcentratedindowntowns.20Andastheknowledgeeconomyhasgrowninsizeanddominance,accesstospecializedtalent,thetransferoftacitknowledge,andincreasedproductivityfromknowledges

40、pillovershaveledtotheincreasingconcentrationoffinance,technology,andresearchintensivejobsnotonlyincertainmetropolitanareas(e.g.,SanFrancisco),butinspecificneighborhoodswithinthem.21Together,theseindustryhubsarecreatingincreasingly,polycentric,regionallandscapesanevolvingformofdevelopmentthatstandsin

41、contrasttotheedgelesscitiesthatdominatedtheendofthe20thcentury.Overtheyears,planningpractitionersandresearchershavemadenumerouseffortstoidentifyandunderstandtheseconcentrations,andinsomecases,maptheirlocations.22However,theseplanningexerciseshavelargelybeenbasedonaverynarrowdefinitionoftheactivityth

42、attakesplacewithinregionalclustersessentiallylimitingittosleeping(mappedashousing)andworking(mappedasjobs).Thisisareductivewayofvaluinghowpeoplespendtheirtime一andonewhichgivesaverydistortedpictureofthespatialpatternofAmericansactivity.In2019,full-timeemployedadultsspentanaverageof16.7hoursperweekdoi

43、ngactivitiesinplacesotherthanworkandhome,whileadultspaidpart-timeornotatallspentover20hoursaweekontheseactivities.23Dataavailabilityonsometypesofactivityandcomparabilityofmeasuresofcentralityhavealsorestrictedtheexistingliterature.Thus,moststudieslimitanalysestooneorasmallsampleofmetropolitanareasan

44、dsub-areas.Forexample,theU.S.censusisareliablepublicsourceofinformationaboutthelocationofhousingatahyperlocalscale.Priorto2010,however,thecensusdidnotincludehyperlocaljobdatathus,pastresearchontheeconomicgeographyproducedbythesuburbanizationofjobssometimesusedabsolutethresholdsofcommercialrealestate

45、squarefootagetodefineplaces.Forexample,in“EdgeCity:1.ifeontheNewFrontier,authorJoelGarreauarguedthat4densityisbackintheformofsuburbanemploymentcenterswithatleast1millionsquarefeetofofficespace.24InwEdgelessCities:ExploringtheElusiveMetropolis/authorRobertE.1.angcounteredbyobservingthatthenatureofspr

46、awlissuchthatifyoudrawabigenoughboundary,youcancatchenoughsquarefootagetohavesomethingtnotenoughtoconstituteatruesomewhere.25ChristopherB.1.einberger1SuTheOptionofUrbanism:InvestinginaNewAmericanDreamreframedthisdebateaboutscaleandgeographybydistinguishingbetweenwalkableanddriveablebuiltenvironments

47、,whichcanbefoundinbothmetrocoresandatmetrofringes,definedastheendsofarangeofflr-to-arearatios.26InordertounderstandtheroleofplaceinthecontemporaryUnitedStates,weneedtofocusonspecificjobsectorsthatdocluster,andthenlookbeyondproductiontoincludeconsumption,housing,andothereconomicandsocialdimensionstha

48、taffectpeople,stime,travel,andlocationdecisions.OURMETHODO1.OGYInthisreport,weidentifyblockgroupscontainingexistingactivitycentersusingasimpleandreplicablemethodologyforcombiningmultiplediversedatasourcesonthelocationsofactivitiesandassets.Comparableacrossmetropolitanareas,thisapproachprovidesamorestandardizedandcomprehensivewaytounderstandthelocalgeographyofactivitythanpreviousefforts.Forthisanalysis,weidentifiedfivecategoriesofassetsthatcancontributetoanareabeinganactivitycenter:community,tourism,consumption,institut