绿色金融与发展中心-中国主导的巴基斯坦和越南燃煤发电厂早期淘汰融资的机会（英）-2024.3_市场营.docx

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1、ExecutivesummaryPrevalentliteratureassumesthatcoal-firedpowerplants(CFPP)inAsiaaredifficulttoretireduetotheirrelativelyyoungage.ThisstudyevaluateshowthefinancialvaluesofsixChinese-sponsoredcoal-firedpowerplants(CFPP)inPakistanandVietnamareimpactedthroughearlyplantretirementunderdifferentfinancingand

2、economicscenarios.Contrarytocommonassumptions,theresultsindicate: ForallsixplantsinVietnamandPakistan,ourmodellingshowedanincreaseinenterprisevaluewithAssetZPortfoIioRefinancingthroughearlyretirement; Whenrefinancingisbundledwithrenewableenergyinvestments,theenterprisevalueswouldmorethantriplecompar

3、edwiththevalueoftheoriginalpowerpurchasingagreement; Accordingly,investorscouldbenefitfinanciallyfromearlyCFPPretirement; Youngerplantscanshavemoreyearsofftheircommerciallifetimeandberetiredearlierduetohigherrelativedebtburdenandhigherfinancingcostsduringtheearlyyearsofoperations; InPakistanwithitsv

4、eryyoungCFPPs,refinancingwouldallowtheretirementofthethreeplantsseventonineyearsaheadofschedulewhileimprovingenterprisevalue.Basedontheresults,thisstudyrecommendsthatChinesecompanies,financialinstitutionsandotherinvestorsengagedinoverseasCFPPsconsiderreducingtheirCFPPexposurebyshiftingtorenewableene

5、rgyinvestments.EnterprisevalueandfeasibilityofCFPPretirementbundledwithrenewableinvestmentwouldfurtherimprovethroughconcessionalloans,creditenhancementmechanismsandinnovativefinancinginstrumentssuchasdebt-for-climateswapsinvolvingChineseCFPPsponsors.Note:datawerecollectedasofJanuary2023.Theanalysesa

6、nddiscussionsectionofthestudywasdraftedinthethirdquarterof2023andfirstpresentedpubliclyduringtheWorldEnergyForum(WEF)inNovember2023.Resultsandfindingsmaychangegivennewnationalpolicies,financialandeconomicconditions.1. IntroductionEarlyphase-downofal-firedpowerplants(CFPPs)isdiscussedinemerginganddev

7、elopedcountriesgloballyasasolutionforreducingemissionsfaster?OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)countriesandtheEUhavetakentheleadinphasingoutcoalandretiringexistingCFPPs,with56percentofoperatingcapacityeitherclosedalreadysince2010orscheduledtocloseby2030.2Inemergingeconomies,parti

8、cularlyacrossAsia,wheremostofthenewadditionsofCFPPshavetakenplaceoverthepast15years,3severalinitiativeshavebeenlaunchedtosupporttheearlyphase-downofCFPPs: EnergyTransitionMechanism(ETM)waslaunchedin2021bytheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)asapublic-privatefinancevehicletoexpeditetheretirementorrepurposingo

9、ffossilfuelplantswithintheAsiaandPacific.InApril2023,ADBannouncedthat,thepriorityforPakistanistotransitionawayfromoil-anddiesel-firedpowerplants,althoughcoal-firedpowerplantswilllikelybeaddressedaspartofETM,spre-feasibilitystudy.ADBcompletedthepre-feasibilitystudylastNovember2023.Inthesameupdate,ADB

10、mentionedthatitTheASEANTaxonomyforSustainableFinancereleasedinMarch2023includescoalphase-outactivitiesinthePlusStandardsframework.Itcategorisescoalphase-outintogreeniftheCFPPsachievephase-outby2040andamberiftheCFPPsachievephase-outby2050(formoredetailspleaserefertotheoriginaldocument).4,conductedapr

11、e-feasibilitystudyin2021andisindiscussionswithkeyministriestoinitiateafullETMfeasibilitystudy. JustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP)waslaunchedin2021atCOP26inGlasgowwithagoaltoexpandpublicandprivatefinancingforequitableenergytransitionsofemergingeconomies.JETPisfinanciallysupportedmainlybytheinterna

12、tionalpartnersgroup(IPG)comprisingFrance,Germany,theEuropeanUnion,theUnitedKingdomandCanada,andprivatefinancialinstitutions.Todate,fourcountrieshavejoinedJETP:SouthAfricain2021,IndonesiaandVietnamin2022,andSenegalin2023. AcceleratingCoalTransition(ACT)launchedin2021isacomprehensiveprogramdesignedtoa

13、ssistcountriesintransitioningawayfromcoal.ACToperatesasamulti-multilateraldevelopmentbank(MDB)financingplatformundertheClimateInvestmentFunds(GIF).TheprogramhasreceivedsubstantialfinancialbackingfromtheG7,whopledgeduptoUSD2billion. GlasgowAllianceforNetZero(GFANZ)inJune2023haspublishedguidanceforman

14、agedcoalphase-out(MPO)inAsia-Pacific,whichwasdevelopedincollaborationwithlocalfinancialandpolicystakeholders,aswellasknowledgepartners.5 MonetaryAuthorityofSingapore(MAS)in2023evaluatestheinvestmentinblendedfinanceinstrumentstoprovidefinancingforacceleratedphase-downofcoal-firedpowerplantsintheAsian

15、region6andhasintroducedtransitioncreditsasacomplementaryfinancingmechanismtoaccelerateandscaletheearlyretirementofCFPPs,7However,atthispoint,theearlyphase-downofCFPPsinemergingeconomiesisstillconsideredachallenge.First,manyemergingeconomieshaverapidlygrowingelectricityneeds:EmergingAsianenomies,elec

16、tricityneedsareprojectedtogrowabout3to5percentperyearduetopopulationgrowth,economicgrowth,andtheelectrificationofindustryandtransport.8Thismakestheretirementofexistingpowergenerationunitsmorechallengingassignificantinvestmentsinrenewableswouldbeneededtogrowtheelectricitysectortomeetdemandwhilesimult

17、aneouslycompensatingforthegenerationcapacitylossthroughCFPPretirement.Second,thereisabeliefthatuingeneral,theolderaplantis,thecheaperitwillbetoretirebecausemoreofitsinitialinvestmenthasalreadybeenrecouped.19AsmanyCFPPsinemergingeconomiesarerelativelyyoung(e.g.,theaverageageinVietnamis6.7yearsand10.8

18、yearsinIndonesia,comparedtomorethan40yearsintheUS)3,theirearlyretirementisregardedascostly.AthirdchallengeistheroleofChinasstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs)andstate-ownedfinancialinstitutions(SOFIs),whohavebeenamongthetopsponsorsofCFPPsinemergingAsiabuthavenotbeenincludedinanyoftheconsiderationsintheregi

19、on.10-11ThisstudyaddressesthethreechallengesbyanalysingthefinancialcostsandopportunitiesofChina-sponsoredCFPPsinVietnamandPakistanandexpandsonpreviousstudiesthatusedrepresentativemodelplantswithgeneralisedassumptions.10Weusedfinancialandoperationaldataofsixoperatingcoal-firedpowerplants(threeinPakis

20、tan,andthreeinVietnam)tocalculatetheirenterprisevalueswiththediscountedcashflowmethod.12WealsobuiltthreefuturescenariostomodelexternalrisksonfuturecashflowsoftheCFPPsandpotentialearlyretirementoptions(forexample,CFPPretirementonlyvsre-investmentintorenewableenergyprojects).Furthermore,insteadofmodel

21、lingretirementoptionsthatrelyonfinancefromahypotheticalpriceforavoidedcarbonemissions,thestudyutilisedachievablefinancingstructurestoestablishretirementoptions.Finally,theresultsofthefinancialvaluesandprojectionsoftheearlyCFPPretirementprogramsweresupplementedbyanadditionalscenariothatfactoredinrene

22、wableenergy(RE)alternatives.TheresultsshowthatinvestorscouldbenefitfinanciallyfromtheearlyretirementofCFPPs.Contrarytopreviousbelief,thefeasibilityofretiringyoungerplantsishigher,asyoungerplantshaveahigherdebtburdenthatleadstohigherfinancingcostsduringtheearlyyearsofoperations.Onceaplantbecomesolder

23、anditsdebtispaidoff,moreofitsrevenuesbecomeprofits,diminishingthepotentialgainsofearlyretirement.Furthermore,theresultsshowthatwhencombiningtheretirementofCFPPswithinvestmentintoRE,enterprisevaluesforinvestorswouldatleasttriplecomparedtocompletingtheoriginalPPA.2. Thecontextofcoalpowerphase-down2.1

24、GlobalenergytransitionandcoalretirementtrendsEnergytransitioninpowergenerationincludesthephase-downoffossilfuels,expansionofREcapacities,energystorageandgridinfrastructure.Manycountrieshavepledgedthroughjointinitiativesorself-declarationtoreducedependenceoncoalpowerandincreasefinancialsupportforRE(F

25、igure1).Figure1:EnergyTransitionInitiativesAroundtheWorldRMifDAtMSinesRnpanmefAS)of1.neiasdeRxtaBiEDPrepurposedto1.256MWcoalfadrintoagreenhydrogencomplexundertheFASProgram*hchprovidedreski*andUPSkBntrainings,andsocialandpsyddogjitrainingforaffectedWOrfcefISmCiiJnPIPGComitted25bnthroughgrants.SUtoidt

26、es.concessionalloa.guarantees,exported.andTAsgearedtowardsmodernizinandsbzinthegridandiwsingREopacityto40%dpowermW2O3aQnGrh三t11Bta11d(HnRrtnentipnstounlockOmeseinvestmenttoward,-fcaonanIMNETMhKENinPhippinesembarksonkscwETMtoaccelerateretirementof5yearOid246MWCFPPSnECPI32040-15warsaheadofenddteChlife

27、MMghcombinationofdebtrefinancingandequity.WthsupportofTransitionGeditsOCfcSpushto2O3QlaunchedJustTransitionProgramwithsupportoCATA.AD85ee的11MegismIElMIADlaunchedtheETMtoindudeIndonesa.PhilippinesVietnamwiththepurposeofritsngPUbfiCQiYateinvestmentstoretirecodpowerassetsaneafSerschedulethaniftheyremai

28、nedIwiththeircurrentownersandreplacewithMaTaskFarefarSUStinaHeJustTransiticnThestategovernmentofJharichand.the才Coaiproducingstate,hasformedaTaskForceforSusUinaUekmTramiticntostudytheeffectsoftheenergytransition,assessthemagnitudeofJna(XeIerMedcoalphaseoutanditsimpactOnworkersandcommunitiesandidentif

29、yopportunitiesingreensectorsandsustwuUefinandIndanabJnPToolof$20bninconcessionaltoamandgrantsfromG7countriestosupportlrxkxws4,sincreaseOfRIdreductionofrelbnc*onfossilfuck.MonetayMtwdtydSv4mGreGvtnnRindpiesforTrmittonCatnnCfedbSeSngcxrthowhigh-integrityCarbOnedtsTra11sitionCreAarhingfromthee(issionsr

30、educedthroughretirinaCFPPeartyandrepbcingwithCfeanerenergysources,canbeUtifaedaccrplemwtarfinancinginstrumenttoacceierxe*xJscaletheearlyMrewmofCFPPs.SKUrHntainUSUtiWts依Uerace-paywbackedbondswhoseproceedsfinancepUrecoveryforCOal曲114andreinvestinChNperdeane(tech.F3ECoal,peatandoilshaleNaturalgas$125mi

31、nlow-interestfinancingfromIntef-AmeckanDewtopmentbank.OwnTechnologyFuxtandChineseRJMforCo-AndngtoWgEngfemonetizeth?GHGreductionsfromearlyretirementof602MWofcipb11tsMXjbufingdISlMWOfiwwwindcapadty.mJiBtTr三ritiMedran(11MTheEUIaschedtheJTMtoprovide29bnWCfThofprvxe-ectorinvestment,andpubk-ectkunfacility

32、fa附Cy(MdcetoSUPPOntheZtoritiinEUclreborn.ScuthAIricaCTPG7countriesiaurhedaJETPprogramtoprovide$85bntoSUPPorTSo(XhAfricaspathwaytoalewcarbeconomyanddimateresiiie11tsocietyvjusttransitionanddecarc11iztio.AsnZmEfTtssianCvuity(AZEQbunchedbyJapanin2022andgathers10countriesintheAPACregkx,Rrovidesvenuefoes

33、haringifo1111atioonvariousmotivestodecarbonizewthuseofRE.EECCUjammonkett,VeremJ1.TPG7countriesprovideatotalof$15.5bnthroughgrantsandconcessionalloanstosupportVietnamsknvmsioanddi11teresirtdevelopcnenttransmissionupgrades.HdecarbcrtzationOfefeCtriCitySystefninandaiAftaefurNetZefD(GFANZ)GuiMvdPheraMDr

34、WtQidedfmtOhelPfirUndaliaiticmIndenUndhewtokiendfyandfwuncecoalretjreonWK,MOKOMiViiionandAconsonJOGVyBu.WiAS4kRoadFcooomc6nrvSlRod1GudmgandRgut)gOvrjflnvsmnSeNCQV2GudOPno)3onPWnOtGgCoa11WCVOHFGrn*Qnd*IMU.MOfCOMG-0vop11ntGsd8cs8F91n11vfmtntndCooprtonNqnwcoatinvestmentvWSnnu11CH4ntCooptHand8svw6Prjdww

35、Note:Reddotmeansthepolicyfollowshostcountryprinciples;GreendotmeansthepolicyfollowsitemationalChineserulesSource:Authors2.3Vietnam:PowersectorcontextandpolicyVietnamspowerindustryisunderthejurisdictionoftheMinistryofIndustryandTrade(MOIT).UnderMOIT,theElectricityRegulatoryAuthorityofVietnamoverseess

36、ectorregulation;severalotherbranchesoverseepolicy,researchandplanning.Vietnamspowersectorhasacoal-dependentsupplystructure.In2022,Vietnamstotalinstalledcapacitywas76GW,dominatedbycoal,naturalgasandhydropower;however,theshareofcoalhasdecreasedslightlysince2019asaresultofgrowthinsolarandwindinstalledc

37、apacity(Figure6).17Figure6:HistoricalinstalledcapacityforelectricitygenerationinVietnamIMDlZXdsPd=etswimportedfrom1.aosSolarWindHydroBiomassotherOilGasCoalAccordingtoGlobalEnergyMonitor,abouttwo-thirdsoftheoperatingandunder-constructioncoalpowerunitsinVietnamarestate-owned,mostlybyElectricityofVietn

38、am(EVN).EVNisalsothelargestbuyerofelectricityinVietnamandholdsamonopolyontransmissionanddistribution.19BasedonGlobalCoalProjectFinancedatain2022,thetotalfinancesecuredforVietnamCFPPsisaroundUSD20billion,themajorityofwhichisbackedbydebtfromChinesebanksandtheseCFPPsform16percentofthecountrystotalpowersupply(Table1).Table1:1.atestlistofChina-backedCFPPsinVietnamCFPPTechnologyCapacity(MW)CODAge(year)CoalSupplyMaoKhePSCFB4402012111.ocalAnKh