英文【NREL】储能未来研究—分布式太阳能和储能展望：方法与情景（英）.docx

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1、NRE1.TransformingENERGYAshreetaPrasanna,KevinMcCabe,BenSigrin,andNateBlairDNRE1.TransformingENERGYStorageFuturesStudyDistributedSolarandStorageOutlook:MethodologyandScenariosAshreetaPrasanna,KevinMcCabe,BenSigrin,andNateBlairSuggestedCitation：Prasanna,Ashreeta,KevinMcCabe.BenSlgrin,andNateBlair.Stor

2、ageFuturesStudy;DistributedSolarandStorageOutlook:MethodologyandScenarios.Golden,CO:NationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory.NRE1.TP-7A40-79790.https:WWW.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/79790.pdf.NOTICEThisworkwasauthoredbytheNationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory,operatedbyAllianceforSustainableEnergy,1.1.C,fortheU.S

3、.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)underContractNo.DE-AC36-08G028308.FundingprovidedbyU.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergySolarEnergyTechnologiesOffice,U.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyWindEnergyTechnologiesOffice,U.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofEnergyEf

4、ficiencyandRenewableEnergyWaterPowerTechnologiesOfficeandU.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyOfficeofStrategicAnalysis.TheviewsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheDOEortheU.S.Government.ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergy1.aborator

5、y(NRE1.)atWWW.nrel.gov/Dublications.U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)reportsproducedafter1991andagrowingnumberofpre-1991documentsareavailablefreeviaWWWQST1.gov.Frontandbackcoverphotos:iStock936999506,iStock1178922834,/Stock1202603676,iStock1270012506.NRE1.printsonpaperthatcontainsrecycledcontent.PrefaceTh

6、isreportisoneinaseriesoftheNationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory,sStorageFuturesStudy(SFS)publications.TheSFSisamultiyearresearchprojectthatexplorestheroleandimpactofenergystorageintheevolutionandoperationoftheU.S.powersector.TheSFSisdesignedtoexaminethepotentialimpactofenergystoragetechnologyadvanceme

7、ntonthedeploymentofutility-scalestorageandtheadoptionofdistributedstorage,aswellastheimplicationsforfuturepowersysteminfrastructureinvestmentandoperations.Theresearchfindingsandsupportingdatawillbepublishedasaseriesofreports,witheachreportbeingreleasedonitscompletion.Thefollowingtableliststhespecifi

8、cresearchtopicsplannedforexaminationundertheSFSandtheassociatedpublicationformats.Thisreport,thefourthintheSFSseries,providesasetofscenariosforcost-effectivenessandcustomeradoptionforarangeofscenariosthatincludefuturetechnologycostsandvaluationofbackuppower.TheSFSseriesprovidesdataandanalysisinsuppo

9、rtoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,sEnergySlOrageGrandChallenge,acomprehensiveprogramtoacceleratethedevelopment,commercialization,andutilizationofnext-generationenergystoragetechnologiesandsustainAmericangloballeadershipinenergystorage.TheEnergyStorageGrandChallengeemploysausecaseframeworktoensurestorage

10、technologiescancost-effectivelymeetspecificneeds,andincorporatesabroadrangeoftechnologiesinseveralcategories:electrochemical,electromechanical,thermal,flexiblegeneration,flexiblebuildings,andpowerelectronics.Moreinformation,anysupportingdataassociatedwiththisreport,linkstootherreportsintheseries,and

11、otherinformationaboutthebroaderstudyareavailableathttps:/WWW.nrel.gov/analysis/StOrage-futures.html.TitleDescriptionRelationtoThisReportTheFourPhasesofStorageDeployment:AFrameworkfortheExpandingRoleofStorageintheU.S.PowerSystemExplorestherolesandopportunitiesfornew,cost-competitivestationaryenergyst

12、oragewithaconceptualframeworkbasedonfourphasesofcurrentandpotentialfuturestoragedeployment,andpresentsavaluepropositionforenergystoragethatcouldresultincost-effectivedeploymentsreachinghundredsofgigawattsofinstalledcapacity.Providesbroadercontextontheimplicationsofthecostandperformancecharacteristic

13、sfortheU.S.gridandprovidesagrid-scalebackdroptothedistributedstorageconclusionsofthisreport.StorageFuturesStudy:StorageTechnologyModelingInputDataReportReviewsthecurrentcharacteristicsofabroadrangeofmechanical,thermal,andelectrochemicalstoragetechnologieswithapplicationtothepowersector.Providescurre

14、ntandfutureprojectionsofcost,performancecharacteristics,andlocationalavailabilityofspecificcommercialtechnologiesalreadydeployed,includinglithium-ionbatterysystemsandpumpedstoragehydropower.Providesstoragetechnologycostandperformanceassumptionsthatinformstoragedeploymentandgridevolutionscenariospres

15、entedinthisreport.StorageFuturesStudy:EconomicPotentialofDiurnalStorageintheU.S.PowerSectorAssessestheeconomicpotentialforutilityscalediurnalstorageandtheeffectsthatstoragecapacityadditionscouldhaveonpowersystemevolutionandoperations.Analyzesutility-scalestoragedeploymentandgridevolutionscenariosasa

16、complementtothisreport.StorageFuturesStudy:DistributedSolarandStorageOutlook:MethodologyandScenariosAssessesthecustomeradoptionofdistributeddiurnalstorageforseveralfuturescenariosandtheimplicationsforthedeploymentofdistributedgenerationandpowersystemevolution.Thisreport.GridOperationalImplicationsof

17、WidespreadStorageDeployment(forthcoming)Assessestheoperationandassociatedvaluestreamsofenergystorageforseveralpowersystemevolutionscenariosandexplorestheimplicationsofseasonalstorageongridoperations.Considerstheoperationalimplicationsofstoragedeploymentandgridevolutionscenariostotestthefour-phasefra

18、meworkandReEDSresults.StorageFuturesStudy:ExecutiveSummaryandSynthesisofFindings(forthcoming)Synthesizesandsummarizesfindingsfromtheentireseriesandrelatedanalysesandreports,andidentifiestopicsforfurtherresearch.Includesadiscussionofallotheraspectsofthestudyandprovidescontextfortheresultsofthisstudy.

19、AcknowledgmentsWewouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionsoftheentireStorageFuturesStudyteam,aswellasourU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyStrategicAnalysisTeamcolleagues,ascorecontributorstothisdocument.ThosecontributorsincludePaulDenholm,WesleyCole,WillFrazier,NateBl

20、air,andChadAugustinefromtheNationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratory(NRE1.)andKaraPodkaminerfromDOE.WewouldliketothankDariceGuittetandBrianMirletzandthebroaderSystemAdvisorModelteamfortheirhelpintegratingPySAMmoduleswithintheNRE1.DistributedGenerationMarketDemand(dGen)model,andspecificallySamKoebrichforthe

21、useofhiscodetogeneratesomeofthefigures.WewouldalsoliketoacknowledgethefeedbackandcontributionsofotherNRE1.staffandtheTechnicalReviewCommittee,includingDougArent(NRE1.ZChair),PaulAlbertus,InesAzevedo,RyanWiser,SusanBabinec,AaronBloom,ChrisNamovicz,ArvindJaggi,KeithParks,KiranKumaraswamy,GrangerMorgan

22、,CaraMarcy,VincentSprenkle,OliverSchmidt,DavidRosner,JohnGavan,andHowardGruenspechtforprovidingreviewsanddetailedcomments.vi1.istofAcronymsBTMbehind-the-meterDERdistributedenergyresourcedGenDistributedGenerationMarketDemand(dGen)modelEIAU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationkWkilowattkWhkilowatt-hour1.

23、BN1.1.awrenceBerkeleyNational1.aboratoryMWmegawattMWhmegawatt-hourNPVnetpresentvalueNRE1.NationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratoryPVphotovoltaicsReEDSRegionalEnergyDeploymentSystemSAIDIsystemaverageinterruptiondurationindexSAIFIsystemaverageinterruptionfrequencyindexSAMSystemAdvisorModelSFSStorageFuturesSt

24、udyUSDU.S.dollarsVllExecutiveSummaryDecliningbatterystoragecostsandthegrowingemphasisonresiliencyandgridserviceshaveledtoheightenedinterestinpairingbatterystoragewithdistributedsolartoprovidevaluetocustomersandthedistributiongrid.Theincreasingdeploymentofdistributedenergyresources(DERs),includingbat

25、terystorage,isanimportantandemergingthemeinmodernpowersystems.DERscancontributetogridOexibility,reducegridpowerlosses,andsupportdemandsidemanagement.Existingbehind-the-meterbatterycapacityisestimatedtobeapproximately0.8GW/1.6GWhintheUnitedStatesatyear-end2020(WoodMackenzieandU.S.EnergyStorageAssocia

26、tion2020).Themarketforsmall-scalebatterysystemsisexpectedtoincreasedramatically,pushedbyadesireforbackuppowerandthedeploymentofdistributedsolarphotovoltaics(PV).TherecentlyapprovedFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission(FERC)Order2222(FERC2020)enablesDERstoparticipateinregionalwholesalecapacity,energy,and

27、ancillaryservicemarketsalongsidetraditional(utility-scale)generation.Order2222andnewDERcompensationmechanismsliketheNewYorkStateValueofDistributedEnergyResources(VDER)(NYSERDA2020b)areanticipatedtounlocknewmarketopportunitiesforDERsandthusleadtoadditionaldeploymentofDERcapacity.Duetothenascentmarket

28、statusfordistributedbatterystoragesystems,therearerelativelyfewpublishedprojectionsofdistributedbatterystoragedeployment.Thisworkaddressesthatgapbycharacterizingthepotentialforbehind-the-meterbatterystorageandidentifyingkeydriversofadoption.ThisreportdescribestheexpandedcapabilitiesoftheDistributedG

29、enerationMarketDemand(dGen)modeltoanalyzetheeconomicsofdistributed(behind-the-meter)PVpairedwithbatterystoragesystemsStand-alonebatterystoragesystemsarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.andpresentsprojectionsofadoptionforthecontiguousUnitedStatesoutto2050underarangeofscenarios.Thesescenariosusetechnologyc

30、ostandperformanceassumptionsconsistentwiththeNationalRenewableEnergy1.aboratorys2020StandardScenariospairedwithupdatedbatterycostprojections(AugustineandBlair2021)andexistingpolicies.AdditionalscenariosevaluatesensitivitiestothevalueofbackuppowerandDERcompensationmechanisms,collectivelycharacterizin

31、gthefuturepotentialforbehind-the-meterstorageandidentifyingkeydriversofadoption.Broaderpowersectorandeconomywidedecarbonizationtargetsarenotcapturedinthisanalysis,whichwouldlikelyaccelerateandincreasetheadoptionofbothdistributedPVandbatterystoragesystems.VlllInordertocalculatebatterystoragesystemand

32、PVadoption,thedGenmodelfirstdeterminesthetechnical,economic,andmarketpotential: Technicalpotential:ThemaximumamountoftechnicallyfeasiblecapacityofPV-onlyandPV+batterystoragesystems,withPVsystemsizelimitedbycustomer,srooftopareaandenergyconsumption,andbatterycapacitycappedasafractionoftheoptimalPVcap

33、acityataspecificsite. Economicpotential:Asubsetoftechnicalpotential,economicpotentialisestimatedasthetotalcapacitythathasapositivereturnoninvestmentorapositivenetpresentvalue(NPV).Economicpotentialcanalsobeinterpretedasthetotalcapacityofsystemsthatarecost-effectiveinaspecificyear. Marketpotential:Th

34、efractionofeconomicpotentialrepresentingthecustomerswillingnesstoinvestinatechnologygivenaspecifiedpaybackperiod. Adoption:AdoptedThetermsdeploymentandadoptionareusedinterchangeablyinthisreport.capacityisthecapacityprojectedtobepurchasedbyresidential,commercial,andindustrialbuildingownersandinstalle

35、datthecustomerpremisesinabehind-the-meterconfiguration.AdoptionisbasedonapplyingaBassdiffusionfunctionwheretheupperlimitofadoptionissettothemarketpotential.PotentialKyAMUmPhOm1163AdoptionTechnicalEconomcFoMcyOTipact*tew*sorwsponsMarti4pnlronFroicMtcml09yco1FkacmgparcxnfsVs*amsFigureES-1.Methodologyt

36、odetermineadoption/deploymentofdistributedstoragesystemsandPVandbatterypotential(GW)fortheBaseCasescenarioin2050AdescriptionofeachlevelandthekeyassumptionsandcorrespondingpotentialcapacityfortheBaseCasescenarioin2050isdescribedinFigureES-1.MarkedSystemsacSystempdormanc.COfMirainlsAdaptedfrom1.opezet

37、al.(2012)TableES-IsummarizestheeconomicpotentialalongsidetheprojectedcumulativebatteryandPVcapacitydeployedoradoptedby2050forallscenariosevaluated.ThecumulativePVcapacitypresentedinTableES-IisthesumofPVcapacityfromPV-onlyandPV+batterystoragesystems.ixTableES-1.DistributedPVandBatteryEconomicPotentia

38、landAdoptionforallScenariosThrough2050BatteryPVScenarioNameScenarioDescriptionEconomicPotentialProjectedEconomicProjectedGW/GWhCumulativeAdoptionPotential(GW)CumulativeGW/GWhAdoption(GW)BaseCaseModeratecostprojectionsforbothPVandbatterystoragesystems;allotherinputsaredefaultvalues;thevalueofbackuppo

39、werisconsidered114/2288/161,104152AdvancedCostBatteriesScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforbatteriespairedwithmoderatecostprojectionsforPV147/29411/221,114160AdvancedCostPVScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforPVpairedwithmoderatecostprojectionsforbatteries116/23211/221,142223AdvancedCostPV+Batt

40、eriesScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforPVpairedwithadvanced(low)costprojectionsforbatteries147/29416/321,143234NoBackupValueScenarioModeratecostprojectionsforPVandbatteriesandnovalueofbackuppower85/1705/101,100146NoBackupValue+AdvancedCostBatteriesScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforbatterie

41、sandnovalueofbackuppower116/2327/141,1101502xBackupValueScenarioModeratecostprojectionsforPVandbatteriesanddoublethevalueofbackuppoweracrossallstatesandsectors138/27611/221,0601392BackupValue+AdvancedCostBatteriesScenarioAdvanced(low)costprojectionsforbatteriesanddoublethevalueofbackuppoweracrossall

42、statesandsectors245/49017/341,085151NetMeteringExtensionsScenarioAllstatesswitchtonetmeteringcompensationfrom2020through2050111/2228/161,080209NationalNetBillingScenarioAllstatesswitchtonetbillingcompensationin2020through2050114/2288/161,105145Forallmodeledscenarios,wefindaneconomicpotentialforbatte

43、rystoragecapacityrangingfrom85-245GW/170-490GWhandcumulativeadoptedbatterystoragecapacityin2050rangingfrom5-17GW/10-34GWh.Althoughthereissignificanteconomicpotentialforbehind-the-meterbatterystorage(morethan300timestheexistinginstalledcapacity),onlyasmallfractionofthisisadoptedunderourmodeledscenari

44、os.Selectedinsightsfromouranalysisfollow: ThereissignificanteconomicpotentialfordistributedPV+batterystoragesystemsunderallmodeledscenarios.TheBaseCaseeconomicpotentialfordistributedbatterystoragecoupledwithPVisapproximately114GW/228GWh,whichismorethan90timesthe2020capacity.Inthescenariosinvestigate

45、d,theupperboundofeconomicpotentialfordistributedbatterystoragecoupledwithPVis245GW/490GWhunderthe2xBackupValue+AdvancedCostBatteriesScenario,andthelowerboundis85GW/170GWhundertheNoBackupValueScenario. Despitethehigheconomicpotential,modestgrowthindistributedPV+batterystorageadoptionisprojectedundero

46、urmodeledscenarios.UndertheBaseCase,theprojecteddeploymentofdistributedbatterystoragecapacityis8GW/16GWh,7%oftheeconomicpotential,witharangeacrossscenariosfrom5-17GW/10-34GWh. Thesubstantialdecreasefromeconomicpotentialtoadoptionreflectsalongpaybackperiod,andconsequentlyalowershareofcustomerswilling

47、toinvest.TheaveragepaybackperiodsofdistributedPV+batterystoragesystemsarefairlylong:11yearsfortheresidentialsector,12yearsforthecommercialsector,and8yearsfortheindustrialsectorin2030. Atthenationalscale,themostimportantdriversofdistributedco-adoptedbatterystorageareacombinationofadvanced(low)futureb

48、atterycostandahighvalueforbackuppower.Thehighestadoptionestimateforbatterycapacityisunderthe2xBackupValue+AdvancedCostBatteriesScenario(+121%comparedtotheBaseCase). CombinedcostreductionsinbothPVandbatterystoragetechnologiesdriveadditionaladoptioncomparedtocostreductionsinbatterytechnologyalone.TheAdvancedCostPV+BatteriesScenario,whichconsidersareductioninfuturecostsforbothPVandbatteries,hashigherbatterydeploymentcomparedtotheBaseCase,increasingby106%. PV+batterysy