IMF-澳大利亚：2023年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；以及澳大利亚执行主任的声明（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDIMFCountryReportNo.24/11AUSTRA1.IA2023ARTIC1.EIVCONSU1.TATIONPRESSRE1.EASE;January2024STAFFREPORT;ANDSTATEMENTBYTHEEXECUTIVEDIRECTORFORAUSTRA1.IAUnderArticleIVoftheIMF,sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2023Arti

2、cleIVconsultationwithAustralia,thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage: APressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsJanuary8,2024considerationofthestaffreportthatconcludedtheArticleIVconsultationwithAustralia. TheStaffReportpreparedbyastaffteamofth

3、eIMFfortheExecutiveBoard,sconsiderationonJanuary8,2024,followingdiscussionsthatendedonNovember1.2023,withtheofficialsofAustraliaoneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthesediscussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonDecember6l2023. AnInformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMFsta

4、ff. AStatementbytheExecutiveDirectorforAustraliaThedocumentslistedbelowhavebeenorwillbeseparatelyreleased.SelectedIssuesTheIMFstransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandprematuredisclosureoftheauthoritiespolicyintentionsinpublishedstaffreportsandotherdocuments.Copiesofthi

5、sreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201E-mail:publicationsimf.orgWeb:InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C.2024InternationalMonetaryFundPRESSRE1.EASEPR2413IMFExecutiveBoardConcludes2023Arti

6、cleIVConsultationwithAustraliaFORIMMEDIATERE1.EASEWashington,DC-January18,2024:TheExecutiveBoardoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)concludedtheArticleIVconsultation1withAustralia.Australiaspost-pandemicrecoveryremainedstrong.However,growthisweakeningontheheelsoftightermacroeconomicpoliciesandfinanci

7、alconditions.Whileinflationhaspeaked,itremainspersistentlyhigh.Thelabormarketshowssignsofeasing,andthepositiveoutputgapisnarrowing.Increasedcostoflivingisweighingonhouseholdconsumption.Theeconomyremainsresilientintheneartermbutconfrontsasustainedslowdowninproductivitygrowth.Riskstothegrowthoutlookar

8、ebalanced,withupsiderisksstemmingfromrobustimmigration.Financialstabilityrisksremaincontaineddespitepocketsofvulnerabilityandhigherrisksrelatedtoglobalfinancialconditions.Economicactivityisprojectedtofurtherdecelerateinthenearterm,asthetighteningofmonetaryconditionscontinuestotakehold.Growthisexpect

9、edtoslowtoaround1.8percenty/yin2023and1.4percenty/yin2024.Falteringprivateconsumptionwouldcontinuetoputadragontheeconomy,ashouseholdswithmortgagesbearthebruntofhigherinterestrates,amidstlowerrealwagesanddepletingsavings.Understaff*sbaselineprojections,inflationwoulddeclinegraduallyandreturntotheRBA,

10、stargetrangein2026.Whileexternalpricepressureshaveabated,leadingtoaneasingingoodsinflation,persistenceinnon-tradeablepricesdrivenbydemandpressureswillkeepinflationelevated.Apositiveoutputgap,amidsttightlabormarkets,wouldexertpricepressuresinthenearterm.Inaddition,whilerealwagegrowthhasbeennegative,t

11、hepick-uprecordedinrecentquarterscoulddelaydisinflation.Therecentstrongnetmigrationinflowsareexpectedtofurtheralleviatelabormarkettightnessbutaddtodemand,especiallyintherentalmarket.ExecutiveBoardAssessmentUnderArticleIVoftheIMFsArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallye

12、veryyear.Astaffteamvisitsthecountry,collectseconomicandfinancialinformation,anddiscusseswithofficialstheuntryseconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Onreturntoheadquarters,thestaffpreparesareport,whichformsthebasisfordiscussionbytheExecutiveBoard.Attheconclusionofthediscussion,theManagingDirector,asChairma

13、noftheBoard,summarizestheviewsofExecutiveDirectors,andthissummaryistransmittedtotheuntrysauthorities.Anexplanationofanyqualifiersusedinsummingsupcanbefoundhere:IMForgExecutiveDirectorsmmendedAustraliassoundmacroeconomicpolicieswhichensuredstrongrecoveryandresilience.Inthecontextofnecessarymacroecono

14、micpolicytightening,Directorsobservedthatgrowthisexpectedtoslow,andinflationisgraduallydeclining,albeitfromabovethetargetrange.Directorshighlightedtheimportanceofcontinuedmonetaryandfiscalpolicycoordinationtoreduceinflationandrecommendedreformstopromoteproductivitygrowthandthegreentransition.Directo

15、rswelcomedtheauthorities*progressonfiscalconsolidationandcommitmenttodebtsustainability.Theyunderscoredtheneedforatighterfiscalstancetosupportdisinflation.Inthatcontext,Directorssawmeritinacomprehensivetaxreformandhighlightedthatrebalancingthetaxsystemfromdirecttoindirecttaxes,whileaddressingregress

16、iveimpacts,wouldpromotegreaterefficiency.Directorsalsorecognizedthemeasurestakentocontainspendinggrowthandunderscoredtheimportanceofwell-targetedsupportforvulnerablehouseholds.Implementingpublicinvestmentprojectsatamoremeasuredpacewouldalsosupportdisinflationefforts.Directorshighlightedthepotentialn

17、eedforfurthermonetarytighteningtoachievethetargetedinflationrangeby2025andrecommendedadata-dependentapproach.TheywelcomedmeasurestakentobolsterfinancialstabilityandtheswiftprogressonimplementingFSAPrecommendations.Directorsencouragedcontinuedstrengtheningofmacroprudentialdecision-makingandcrisismana

18、gementandresolutionframeworks.Theystressedtheimportanceofcontinuedvigilanceamidsttightfinancialconditions.Notingtherenewedincreasesinhouseprices,Directorsrecommendedtheadoptionofadditionalborrower-basedprudentialtools.Theysupportedtheinitiativestoboosthousingsupplytoimproveaffordabilityandemphasized

19、thecriticalityofsupportiveplanningandland-usepolicies.Directorscommendedtheauthoritiesfortheirrecentmeasurestotackleskillshortagesandimprovelabormarketoutcomes,particularlyforwomen.Theystressedtheneedforfurtherreformstoreigniteproductivitygrowthandfosterinclusion.TheyalsocommendedAustraliascontinued

20、supportformultilateralinstitutions,foranopentradeenvironmentandtheuntry,svoluntaryparticipationinthereviewoftransnationalaspectsofcorruption.DirectorswelcomedAustraliaseffortstomeetitsclimatemitigationtargets.WhilehighlightingtheimportantrolethattheSafeguardsMechanismcouldplayinreducingemissions,Dir

21、ectorsrecognizedthatmeetingthe2030climatetargetwillbechallenging.Theythusencouragedtheauthoritiestoconsideradditionaleffortstoachievethenetzeroemissiontargetby2050.Notingthatalternativesectoralpoliciescanhelpreduceemissions,Directorswelcomedthefocusondevelopingsectoraldecarbonizationplans.Table1.Aus

22、tralia:MainEconomicIndicators,2018-2028(Annualpercentchange,unlessotherwiseindicated)-20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028ProjectionsNATIONA1.ACCOUNTSRealGDPEtomesticdemandPrivateconsumptionPublicconsumptionInvestmentPublicPrivatebusinessDwellingNetexports(contributiontogrowth,percentagepoin

23、ts)GrossdomesticincomeInvestment(percentofGDP)1/PublicPrivateSavings(gross,percentofGDP)HouseholdsPotentialoutputOutputgap(percentofpotential)1.ABORMARKETEmploymentUnemployment(percentoflaborforce)Wages(nominalpercentchange)PRICESTermsoftradeindex(goods,avg)%changeIronoreprices(index)Consumerprices(

24、avg)Coreconsumerprices(avg)GDPdeflator(avg)FINANCIA1.ReserveBankOfAustraliacashratetarget(percent,avg)10-yeartreasurybondyield(percent,avg)Mortgagelendingrale(percent,avg)MACRO-FINANCIA1.CredittotheprivatesectorHouseprices(%change)Houseprice-to-income,capitalcities(ratio)Interestpayments(percentofdi

25、sposableincome)Householdsavings(percentofdisposableinme)Householddebt(percentofdisposableincome)2/Businesscredit(percentofGDP)GENERA1.GOVERNMENT(percentofGDP)3/RevenueExpenditureNetIendng/borrowingCommonwealthonlyOperatingbalanceCyclicallyadjustedprimarybalanceGrossdebtNetdebtBA1.ANCEOFPAYMENTSCurre

26、ntaount(percentofGDP)ExportvolumeImportvolumeNetinternationalinvestmentposition(percentofGDP)Grossofficialreserves(bnA$)MEMORANDUMITEMSWNominalGDP(bnA$)PercentchangeRealGDPpercapita(%change)Population(million)NominaleffectiveexchangerateRealeffectiveexchangerate71396644.54.&4.180.34.659.02.83.02.2-3

27、.57O.6230I523.58623.S278SO-O.4508090.1.25.52.50.02225.25.8206469175.966:1.3Z6-5.58073410.7,1849.36,40.85253.33.85Q923,45011.226.2419.619.724.OO1a21.214&20,08.934.3S3419C52.426.7.33.8J6。1.1.O549.27.56566533O笺Z961.3371195-0.85149Q1119054.1-1.9-0.30.0040543112295920.笺223.619791023.2.6)52)5666g010222521

28、1.9-0.3侬54.56O35,38.336-2-1-033.2.41.410732,7233.14.17.45.2.6侬55.1439610.31755.62644914540.31756.35368O56.5907010056.-0.62.1452Io334.5019,995”2Sources:Authoritiesdata:IMFWorldEconomicOutlookdatabase;andIMFstaffestimatesandprojections.MIncludeschangesininventories.21Reflectsthenationalaccountsmeasure

29、ofhouseholddebt,includingtothefinancialsector,stateandfederalgovernmentsandforeignoverseasbanksandgovernments.Italsoincludesotheraccountspayabletothesesectorsandarangeofothersmallerentitiesincludingpensionfunds.3/FiscalyearendingJune.-29.3913,14.:28.3INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDAUSTRA1.IASTAFFREPORTFO

30、RTHE2023ARTIC1.EIVCONSU1.TATIONDecember4,2023KEYISSUESContext.Australiaspost-pandemicrecoveryremainedstrong.However,growthisweakeningontheheelsoftightermacroeconomicpoliciesandfinancialconditions.Whileinflationhaspeaked,itremainspersistentlyhigh.1.abormarketshowssignsofeasing,andthepositiveoutputgap

31、isnarrowing.Increasedcostoflivingstartedtoweighonhouseholdconsumption.Theeconomyremainsresilientintheneartermbutconfrontsasecularproductivityslowdown.FinancialstabilityrisksremaincontainedalthoughpocketsofvulnerabilityexistandrisksofspilloversfromglobalfinancialconditionshaveincreasedsincethelastArt

32、icleIV.Policyrecommendations:Short-termpoliciesshouldfocusonnavigatingtheeconomytoasoftlanding,bybringinginflationbacktotarget,whilemaintainingfinancialstability.Policycoordinationwillbecritical.Structuralreformsmustaddressdecliningproductivitygrowthandchallengesrelatedtoageingandputtheeconomyonthep

33、athforagreentransition.Harnessingthepotentialofmigrationandinnovationwillbekeytolong-termprosperityandinclusion. Atighterfiscalpolicyisneededtosupportdisinflation.Fiscalpolicymuststrikeanappropriatebalancebetweensupportingmonetarypolicybynotaddingtoinflationpressuresintheneartermandthenecessarystruc

34、turaltransformationoverthelongterm. Monetarypolicyshouldbetightenedfurthertoensureinflationcomesbacktotargetearlierthan2026projectedinthebaseline.Thepaceoffurthertighteningneedstobecalibratedbasedonincomingdataandshouldconsiderthelagsinthetransmissionoftheeffectsofmonetarypolicy. Financialsectorpoli

35、cyshouldpreemptivelyaddressstabilityconcernsthroughmacroprudentialpoliciestoaddresspocketsofvulnerability.Althoughnonperformingloans(NP1.s)remainlow,continuedvigilanceisneededtosafeguardfinancialstability.Australianbanksareadequatelycapitalizedwithsufficientliquiditybufferstomanagenear-andmedium-ter

36、mrisks. Structuralpoliciesshouldbecenteredaroundpromotingproductivitygrowth.Continuedinvestmentindigitalinfrastructure,moredirectgovernmentfundingforresearchanddevelopment(R&D),andmoreopenFDIregimecoupledwithlabormarketandtaxreformsareamongthekeystructuralpolicies.ApprovedByAnne-MarieGuide-Wolf(APD)

37、andAnnaIlyina(SPR)DiscussionstookplaceinCanberra,Melbourne,andSydneyduringOctober18-November1,2023.ThestaffteamcomprisedAbdoulAzizWane(head),PragyanDeb,KlausPeterHellwig,KenichiroKashiwase,EvanPapageorgiou,andNourTawk(allAPD).Anne-MarieGulde-Wolf(APD)joinedtheclosingpolicydiscussions.RobertNichollan

38、dTanujaDoss(bothOED)joinedthediscussions.JohnSpray,AbdullahAlnasser,andNadineDubost(allAPD)assistedfromHQs.EmmanuelMathias,YaoDeng,andJonathanPampolina(all1.EG)participatedinvirtualmeetingsbeforethemission.CONTENTSCONTEXT:NEAR-TERMIMBA1.ANCESAMIDST1.ONGER-TERMCHA1.1.ENGES4ASOFT1.ANDINGREMAINSINSIGHT

39、4A. RecentDevelopmentsShowtheResilienceoftheEconomy4B. OutlookRemainsRobustDespiteIncreasedHeadwinds9RECA1.IBRA11NGPO1.ICYTHROUGHTIGHTENINGANDCOORDINATION11A. FiscalPolicy-AvoidCostlyDelaysinAddressingChallenges11B. MonetaryPolicy17RISKSTOFINANCIA1.STABIUTYARECONTAINEDBUTPERSISTENT19HOUSINGAFFORDABI

40、1.ITYREMAINSACONCERN22JUMP-STARTINGPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHANDADDRESSINGC1.IMATECHANGE25STAFFAPPRAISA1.29BOXES1. AustraliasSavingsRate312. FragmentationinCommodityMarkets323. Indexation344. TransnationalAspectsofCorruption35FIGURES1. Post-pandemicRecoveriesAreUnevenAcrossStatesandTerritories162. PandemicS

41、carsAreAmplifiedinSomeStates,SlowingthePaceofFiscalConsolidation163. TheAustralianEconomyHasShownaStrongRecovery364. TheExternalPositionRemainsStrong,SupportedbyHighCommodityPrices375. TheHousingMarketIsConsolidating386. MonetaryPolicyHasBeguntoTightenSubstantially397. ThePublicSectorBalanceSheetCon

42、tinuestoImprove408. TheBankingSectorRemainsStrong419. FinancialMarket:TighteningFinancialConditions4210. AustraliasMacro-StructuralPositionHighlightsIssuesPredatingthePandemic43TAB1.ES1. MainEconomicIndicators,2018-28442. FiscalAccounts,2018/19-2028/29453. BalanceofPayments,2018-2028464. Monetaryand

43、FinancialSector,2018-2028475. SelectedFinancialSoundnessIndicatorsoftheBankingSector48ANNEXESI. PreviousIMFPolicyRecommendations49II. GlobalValueChainsandInflationDynamicsinAustralia50I11.MonetaryPolicyTransmission:Cross-CountryEvidence54IV. SovereignRiskandDebtSustainabilityAssessment57V. ExternalS

44、ectorAssessment65VI. RiskAssessmentMatrix67VII. RBAReview-AnRBAFitfortheFuture70VIII. FinancialSectorAssessmentProgramUpdate72IX. TransnationalAspectsofCorruption85CONTEXT:NEAR-TERMIMBA1.ANCESAMIDST1.ONGER-TERMCHA1.1.ENGES1. Australiaspost-pandemicrecoveryremainedstrongerthanpeers,evenashighinflatio

45、nandtighterfinancialconditionsareweighingonhouseholdconsumption.Theslowdowninhouseholds1consumptiongrowthwas,however,offsetbyresilientprivateinvestmentsupportedbypublicinvestmentintransport,health,education,andnationaldefense.Netexportscontributedtogrowthonthebackofrobustsalesofcoalandserviceexports

46、buoyedbyinflowsofforeignstudents,migrants,andtourists.Asaresult,thejobmarketremainedtightandinflationmorepersistentthanenvisioned.Thesizable,positiveoutputgapin2023isprojectedtonarrowinthenearterm.Morepersistentinflation,de-anchoringofinflationexpectations,andexternaI-demandshocksareamongthevisibler

47、iskstothenear-term.2. 1.onger-termchallengestosustainedandsharedprosperityarebecomingmorevisible.Theeconomyfacesstructuralchallengesfromasecularslowdowninproductivitygrowth,populationageing,andclimatechange,amidstthedislocationsfromgeopoliticalfragmentation.The1.aborGovernmenthassignaledacommitmentto,seizethemoment*by,risingtotheproductivitychallenge*1throughevidence-basedpublicpolicymaking.TherecentlypublishedIntergenerationalReport,the5-yearProductivityInquiry,theBusinessCouncilofAustra