IMF-脆弱的线索：撒哈拉以南非洲的排斥与冲突（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、0H4Nodm1.MMlMUQg2023.ZtrSleQCdeetoomemtolersStateForces2qd00U-SmoConflictseemstobeconcentratedprimarilynearnationalborders.Theseborderregionsoftenlacksufficientprovisionofpublicservices,creatingwhatareknownasungovemed(orungovernable)spaces.Tlteseconflict-pronehotspotsposesubstantialriskstosecurityan

2、dstability,bothinthedirectlyaffectedcountriesandtheirnearbyneighbors.Notableexamplesofconflictswithpotentialcross-borderspillovereffectsincludetherecentcivilwarinEthiopiaandthelong-runningconflictsinSouthSudanandCentralAfricanRepublic,aswellasextremism-drivenconflictsacrosstheSahelandnorthernMozambi

3、que,c.f.Figures3and4.44InEthiopia,followingthesigningoftheCessationofHostilitiesAgreementinNovember2022,thepeaceprocesshasbeenprogressingFigure 3: ConflictMain1.ocations,2022SSA:1.ocationswithHighestFatalities,2022IBFACODM1.INERSSDICMR.ETH.MOZ.NGASource:AC1.EDandauthors,calculationsNntARIdata70-R-723Source:AC1.EDandauthors,calculations.Notes:1.atestdata28-04-2023.3. ExclusionandConflictinThe1.iteratureTheliteratureexaminingtheimpactofexclusiononconflictisqu让eIirrdte