曼昆经济学原理31.ppt

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1、,11 THE MACROECONOMICS OF OPEN ECONOMIES开放经济宏观经济学,Open-Economy Macroeconomics:Basic Concepts开放经济宏观经济学：基本概念,Chapter 31,Open and Closed Economies开放经济与封闭经济,A closed economy is one that does not interact with other economies in the world.封闭经济不与世界其他经济进行交易的经济。There are no exports,no imports,and no capital

2、 flows.没有出口、进口，也没有资本流动。,Open and Closed Economies开放经济与封闭经济,An open economy is one that interacts freely with other economies around the world.开放经济自由地与世界其他经济进行交易的经济。,An Open Economy 一个开放经济,An open economy interacts with other countries in two ways.一个开放经济以两种方式 与其他国家相互交易。It buys and sells goods and ser

3、vices in world product markets.在世界产品市场上购买并出售物品与劳务。It buys and sells capital assets in world financial markets.在世界金融市场上购买并出售资本资产。,An Open Economy 一个开放经济,The U.S.is a very large and open economy it imports and exports huge quantities of goods and services.美国是一个很大的开放经济体，它进口和出口大量的物品与劳务。Over the past fou

4、r decades,international trade and finance have become increasingly important.在过去的40年里，国际贸易和国际金融已经变得越来越重要。,The Flow of Goods:Exports,Imports,Net Exports物品的流动：出口、进口以及净出口,Exports are domestically produced goods and services that are sold abroad.出口国内生产而在国外销售的物品与劳务Imports are foreign produced goods and s

5、ervices that are sold domestically.进口国外生产而在国内销售的物品与劳务,The Flow of Goods:Exports,Imports,Net Exports物品的流动：出口、进口以及净出口,Net exports(NX)are the value of a nations exports minus the value of its imports.净出口一国的出口值减去进口值。Net exports are also called the trade balance.净出口又被称为贸易余额。,The Flow of Goods:Exports,Imp

6、orts,Net Exports,A trade deficit is a situation in which net exports(NX)are negative.Imports Exports A trade surplus is a situation in which net exports(NX)are positive.Exports ImportsBalanced trade refers to when net exports are zero exports and imports are exactly equal.,物品的流动:出口、进口以及净出口,贸易赤字 是净出口

7、小于零的状况。进口 出口 贸易盈余 是净出口大于零的状况。出口 进口平衡的贸易 出口正好等于进口的状况。,The Flow of Goods:Exports,Imports,Net Exports,Factors That Affect Net ExportsThe tastes of consumers for domestic and foreign goods.The prices of goods at home and abroad.The exchange rates at which people can use domestic currency to buy foreign

8、currencies.,物品的流动:出口、进口以及净出口,影响净出口的因素消费者对国内与国外物品的嗜好。国内与国外物品的价格。人们可以用国内通货购买国外通货的汇率。,The Flow of Goods:Exports,Imports,Net Exports,Factors That Affect Net ExportsThe incomes of consumers at home and abroad.The costs of transporting goods from country to country.The policies of the government toward in

9、ternational trade.,物品的流动:出口、进口以及净出口,影响净出口的因素国内与国外消费者的收入。从一国向另一国运送物品的成本。政府对国际贸易的政策。,Figure 1 The Internationalization of the U.S.Economy,Percent,of GDP,0,5,10,15,1950,1955,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1990,1985,2000,1995,Exports,Imports,图1.美国经济的国际化,GDP的百分比,0,5,10,15,1950,1955,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,199

10、0,1985,2000,1995,出口,进口,The Flow of Financial Resources:Net Capital Outflow,Net capital outflow refers to the purchase of foreign assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of domestic assets by foreigners.A U.S.resident buys stock in the Toyota corporation and a Mexican buys stock in the Ford M

11、otor corporation.,金融资源的流动:净资本外流,净资本外流 本国居民购买的外国资产减外国人购买的国内资产。一个美国居民购买丰田公司的股票，一个墨西哥人购买美国福特公司的股票。,The Flow of Financial Resources:Net Capital Outflow,When a U.S.resident buys stock in Telmex,the Mexican phone company,the purchase raises U.S.Net Capital Outflow。When a Japanese residents buys a bond iss

12、ued by the U.S.government,the purchase reduces the U.S.Net Capital Outflow。,金融资源的流动:净资本外流,当一个美国居民购买了墨西哥电话公司（Telmex）的股票时，这种购买增加了美国的净资本外流。当一个日本居民购买了美国政府发行的债券时，这种购买减少了美国的净资本外流。,The Flow of Financial Resources:Net Capital Outflow,Variables that Influence Net Capital OutflowThe real interest rates being

13、paid on foreign assets.The real interest rates being paid on domestic assets.The perceived economic and political risks of holding assets abroad.The government policies that affect foreign ownership of domestic assets.,金融资源的流动:净资本外流,影响净资本外流的因素国外资产得到的实际利率。国内资产得到的实际利率。持有国外资产可以觉察到的经济与政治风险。影响国外拥有国内资产的政府

14、政策。,The Equality of Net Exports and Net Capital Outflow,Net exports(NX)and net capital outflow(NCO)are closely linked.For an economy as a whole,NX and(NCO)must balance each other so that:NCO=NXThis holds true because every transaction that affects one side must also affect the other side by the same

15、 amount.,净出口与净资本外流的相等,净出口(NX)和净资本外流(NCO)密切相关。对整个经济而言，NX 和 NCO必然相互平衡，才能NCO=NX这个等式是恒等式，这是因为影响这个方程式一方的每一次交易必然完全等量地影响另一方。,Saving,Investment,and Their Relationship to the International Flows,Net exports is a component of GDP:Y=C+I+G+NXNational saving is the income of the nation that is left after paying

16、for current consumption and government purchases:Y-C-G=I+NX,储蓄、投资以及与国际流动的关系,净出口是 GDP的一个组成部分:Y=C+I+G+NX国民储蓄是在支付了现期消费和政府购买之后剩下的国民收入：Y-C-G=I+NX,Saving,Investment,and Their Relationship to the International Flows,National saving(S)equals Y-C-G so:S=I+NXor,Domestic Investment,Net Capital Outflow,Saving=,

17、+,S=I+NCO,储蓄、投资以及与国际流动的关系,国民储蓄(S)等于 Y-C-G，所以S=I+NX或者,国内投资,净资本外流,储蓄=,+,S=I+NCO,Figure 2 National Saving,Domestic Investment,and Net Capital Outflow,Percent,of GDP,20,18,16,14,12,10,1960,1965,1995,1990,1985,1980,1975,1970,(a)National Saving and Domestic Investment(as a percentage of GDP),2000,图2.国民储蓄、

18、国内投资与净资本外流,GDP的 百分比,20,18,16,14,12,10,1960,1965,1995,1990,1985,1980,1975,1970,(a)国民储蓄与国内投资（GDP的百分比）,2000,Figure 2 National Saving,Domestic Investment,and Net Capital Outflow,Percent,of GDP,4,4,3,2,1,0,1,2,3,(b)Net Capital Outflow(as a percentage of GDP),1960,1965,1995,1990,1985,1980,1975,1970,2000,图

19、2.国民储蓄、国内投资与净资本外流,GDP的百分比,4,4,3,2,1,0,1,2,3,(b)净资本外流(GDP的百分比),1960,1965,1995,1990,1985,1980,1975,1970,2000,THE PRICES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS:Real and Nominal Exchange Rates,International transactions are influenced by international prices.The two most important international prices are the n

20、ominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate.,国际交易的价格：实际与名义汇率,国际交易受国际价格的影响。两种最重要的国际价格是名义与实际汇率。,Nominal Exchange Rates名义汇率,The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another.名义汇率一个人可以用一国通货交换另一国通货的比率。,Nominal Exchange Rates名义汇率,

21、The nominal exchange rate is expressed in two ways:名义利率可以用两种方法来表示：In units of foreign currency per one U.S.dollar.每一美元外国货币。And in units of U.S.dollars per one unit of the foreign currency.每一单位外国货币美元。,Nominal Exchange Rates名义汇率,Assume the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and U.S.dollar is 80 ye

22、n to one dollar.如果日元和美元之间的汇率是80日元对1美元：One U.S.dollar trades for eighty yen.1美元换80日元。One yen trades for 1/80(=0.0125)of a dollar.1日元换1/80美元。,Nominal Exchange Rates,Appreciation refers to an increase in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.Depreciation refer

23、s to a decrease in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.,名义汇率,升值按所能购买到的外国通货量衡量的一国通货的价值增加。贬值按所能购买到的外国量衡量的一国通货的价值减少。,Nominal Exchange Rates名义汇率,If a dollar buys more foreign currency,there is an appreciation of the dollar.如果一个美元能买到更多外国通货，就说美元升值。If it buys le

24、ss there is a depreciation of the dollar.如果买到更少，就说美元贬值。,Real Exchange Rates 实际汇率,The real exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the goods and services of one country for the goods and services of another.实际汇率一个人可以用一国物品与劳务交换另一国物品与劳务的比率。,Real Exchange Rates,The real exchange rate compa

25、res the prices of domestic goods and foreign goods in the domestic economy.If a case of German beer is twice as expensive as American beer,the real exchange rate is 1/2 case of German beer per case of American beer.,实际汇率,实际汇率比较国内物品价格与国外物品在国内经济中的价格。如果一箱德国啤酒的价格是一箱美国啤酒价格的2倍，实际汇率就是一箱美国啤酒对1/2箱德国啤酒。,Real

26、Exchange Rates实际汇率,The real exchange rate depends on the nominal exchange rate and the prices of goods in the two countries measured in local currencies.实际汇率取决于名义汇率和用本国货币衡量的两国物品的价格。,Real Exchange Rates,The real exchange rate is a key determinant of how much a country exports and imports.,Real Exchan

27、ge Rate,实际汇率,实际汇率是一个国家进口量和出口量的一个关键决定因素。,实际汇率,名义汇率 X,国内价格,国外价格,Real Exchange Rates,A depreciation(fall)in the U.S.real exchange rate means that U.S.goods have become cheaper relative to foreign goods.This encourages consumers both at home and abroad to buy more U.S.goods and fewer goods from other co

28、untries.,实际汇率,美元实际汇率贬值（下降）意味着相对于外国物品而言，美国物品变得便宜了。这种变化鼓励国内与国外消费者更多地购买美国物品，而更少地购买外国物品。,Real Exchange Rates,As a result,U.S.exports rise,and U.S.imports fall,and both of these changes raise U.S.net exports.Conversely,an appreciation in the U.S.real exchange rate means that U.S.goods have become more ex

29、pensive compared to foreign goods,so U.S.net exports fall.,实际汇率,结果是美国出口增加而进口减少，这两种变化都增加了美国的净出口。相反，美国实际汇率升值意味着与外国物品相比，美国物品变得更昂贵了，所以，美国的净出口减少。,A FIRST THEORY OF EXCHANGE-RATE DETERMINATION:Purchasing-Power Parity第一种汇率决定理论：购买力平价,The purchasing-power parity theory is the simplest and most widely accepte

30、d theory explaining the variation of currency exchange rates.购买力平价理论是一种最简单并得到最广泛接受的解释现期汇率变化的理论。,The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity 购买力平价的基本逻辑,Purchasing-power parity is a theory of exchange rates whereby a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all cou

31、ntries.购买力平价一种汇率理论，认为任何一单位通货应该能在所有国家买到等量物品。,The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity 购买力平价的基本逻辑,According to the purchasing-power parity theory,a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.根据购买力平价理论，任何一单位通货应该能在所有国家买到等量物品。,Basic Logic of Purchasing-

32、Power Parity,The theory of purchasing-power parity is based on a principle called the law of one price.According to the law of one price,a good must sell for the same price in all locations.,购买力平价的基本逻辑,购买力平价理论根据了一个被称为单一价格规律的原理根据单一价格规律，在所有地方同一种物品都应该按同样的价格出售。,Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity,If

33、the law of one price were not true,unexploited profit opportunities would exist.The process of taking advantage of differences in prices in different markets is called arbitrage.,购买力平价的基本逻辑,如果单一价格规律不正确，就存在可以获得潜在利润的机会。利用不同市场上价格差获取利润的过程被称为套利。,Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity,If arbitrage occurs,

34、eventually prices that differed in two markets would necessarily converge.According to the theory of purchasing-power parity,a currency must have the same purchasing power in all countries and exchange rates move to ensure that.,购买力平价的基本逻辑,如果可以进行套利，最终两个市场上不同的价格必然趋同。根据购买力平价理论，一种通货必然在所有国家都有相同的购买力，而且汇率

35、要调整，直到具有相同的购买力。,Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity,If the purchasing power of the dollar is always the same at home and abroad,then the exchange rate cannot change.The nominal exchange rate between the currencies of two countries must reflect the different price levels in those countries.,购买力平价

36、的含义,如果一美元的购买力在国内与国外总是相同的，那么汇率就不会变。两个国家通货之间的名义汇率必然反映这两个国家的物价水平差别。,Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity,When the central bank prints large quantities of money,the money loses value both in terms of the goods and services it can buy and in terms of the amount of other currencies it can buy.,购买力平价的含义

37、,当中央银行印发了大量货币时，无论根据它能买到的物品与劳务，还是根据它能买到的其他通货，这种货币的价值都降低了。,Figure 3 Money,Prices,and the Nominal Exchange Rate During the German Hyperinflation,10,000,000,000,1,000,000,000,000,000,100,000,1,.00001,.0000000001,1921,1922,1923,1924,Exchange rate,Money supply,Price level,1925,Indexes,(Jan.1921,5,100),10,

38、000,000,000,1,000,000,000,000,000,100,000,1,.00001,.0000000001,1921,1922,1923,1924,1925,指数(1921.1=100),图3.德国超速通货膨胀时期的货币、物价与名义汇率,Limitations of Purchasing-Power Parity,Many goods are not easily traded or shipped from one country to another.Tradable goods are not always perfect substitutes when they a

39、re produced in different countries.,购买力平价的局限性,许多物品是不易于交易的。可交易的物品在不同国家生产时，即使是可交易产品，也并不总能完全替代。,Summary,Net exports are the value of domestic goods and services sold abroad minus the value of foreign goods and services sold capital outflow is the acquisition of foreign assets by domestic residents minu

40、s the acquisition of domestic assets by foreigners.,小结,净出口是在国外销售的国内生产的物品与劳务的价值减在国内销售的国外生产的物品与劳务的价值。净资本外流是国内居民获得的国外资产减外国人获得的国内资产。,Summary 小结,An economys net capital outflow always equals its net exports.一个经济的净资本外流等于其净出口An economys saving can be used to either finance investment at home or to buy asse

41、ts abroad.一个经济的储蓄既可以为国内投资筹资，又可以购买国外资产。,Summary 小结,The nominal exchange rate is the relative price of the currency of two countries.名义汇率是两国通货的相对价格。The real exchange rate is the relative price of the goods and services of two countries.实际汇率是两国物品与劳务的相对价格,Summary,When the nominal exchange rate changes s

42、o that each dollar buys more foreign currency,the dollar is said to appreciate or strengthen.When the nominal exchange rate changes so that each dollar buys less foreign currency,the dollar is said to depreciate or weaken.,小结,当名义汇率变动以至于每美元购买了更多外国通货时，可以说美元升值或者坚挺。当名义汇率变动以至于每美元购买了更少外国通货时，可以说美元贬值或者疲软。,S

43、ummary,According to the theory or purchasing-power parity,a unit of currency should buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.The nominal exchange rate between the currencies of two countries should reflect the countries price levels in those countries.,小结,根据购买力平价理论，一个单位的通货应该能在所有的国家购买等量的物品。两个国家通货之间的名义汇率应该反映这两个国家的物价水平。,