CFA一级强化段培训项目：经济学（标准版）.docx

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1、CFA-级培训项讲师:Cherie吵3trgBYMPrefgio5TopicWeightingsinCFALevelISessionNO.ContentWeightingsStudySession1EthicalandProfessionalStandards15-20StudySession2-3QuantitativeMethods8-12StudySession4-5Economics8-12StudySession6-9FinancialReportingandAnalysis13-17StudySession10-11CorporateFinance8-12StudySession1

2、2-13EquityInvestments10-12StudySession14-15FixedIncome10-12StudySession16Derivatives5-8StudySession17AlternativeInvestments5-8StudySession18-19PortfolioManagement5-8三亚创新借值(S) FrameworkEconomicsAR12TopicsinDemandandSupplyAnalysisAR13TheFirmandMarketStructuresAR14AggregateOutput,Prices,andEconomicGrow

3、thAR15UnderstandBusinessCyclesAR16MonetaryandFiscalPolicyAR17InternationalTradeandCapitalFlowsAR18CurrencyExchangeRatesTopicsinDemandandSupplyAnalysisFramework1.2.DemandandSupplyElasticity3.SubstitutionandIncomeEffects4.Profit5.Product6.Revenue7.Cost8.ProfitMaximization9.BreakevenPointandShutdownPoi

4、nt10.EconomiesandDiseconomiesofscale1741406(2)1506(1)1512(1)16061912(1)1.1DemandandSupplyDemandfunction:Qgas=1234-15PgasInverseDemandfunction:Pgas=8.23-0.667QgasQ(gallons)Supplyfunction:Qtables=一426+1.5PtableSInversesupplyfunction:PtabIeS=284+0.667QasQ(tables)7-13o140615121606(1)16121906(1).1.2Marke

5、tEquilibriumAEquilibriumpriceandtheequilibriumquantityWhenhaveamarketsupplyandmarketdemandcurveforagood,Wecansolveforthepriceatwhichthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemanded.Wedefinethisastheequilibriumpriceandtheequilibriumquantity.E:marketequilibrium.Attheprice,thequantityofsupply=thequantityof

6、demand.!页取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebajun888s1606(1)1.3DemandandSupplyCurvesMovementsalongdemandandsupplycurves.ChangesinquantitydemandedorsuppliedofproductXcausedbychangesinmarketpriceoftheproductX.Shiftsindemandandsupplycurves.ChangesinquantitydemandedorsuppliedofproductXcausedbyotherindependentvariablesother

7、thanthechangesinmarketpricetheproductX.，Forexample:Achangeoftheincome;Achangeofthepriceforsubstitutegoodsorcomplementarygoods.1412(1)1512(1)2012(1)1.4ConsumerSurplusThedifferencebetweenthetotalvaluetoconsumersoftheunitsofagoodthattheybuyandthetotalamounttheymustpayforthoseunitsiscalledConSUmersurplu

8、s.2.ElasticityPrice elasticity ofdemandElasticityCross elasticity ofdemandOther elasticity ofdemandIncomeelasticityofdemand1706(1)1906(1)2012(1)*2.1.1PriceElasticityofDemandADefinitionAmeasureOfhowSenSitiVeChaneleSinquantitydemandedtoachangeinprice,anditisexpressedastheratioofpercentagechangesineach

9、variableThepriceelasticityofdemand:Adwhere:%Ad d%P -陷Y竺Percent change =4change in value ending value - beginning valueaverage value / ending VaIUe +beginning ValUe1406(1)1906(1)2.1.2PriceElasticityofDemandPriceelasticityWhenelasticity=l:demandissaidtobeunitelastic,orunitaryelastic.Whenelasticity1,th

10、edemandissaidtobeelastic.WhenelasticityAvailabilityofsubstitutesIfthereareClOSeSUbStitUteSforthegood,thenifitspricerisesevenslightly,aConsumerwouldtendswitchtothelesscostlysubstitute.ATherelativeamountofincomespentonthegood.IfconsumerstendtospendaVerVSmallPOrtiOnCIftheirbudqetonagood,theirdemandtend

11、stobelesselasticthaniftheyspendaverylargepartoftheirincome.ATimeperiodsincethepricechangeFormostgoodsandservices,theIonCI-Iundemandismuchmoreelasticthantheshort-rundemand.领取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebajun888s1506(1)1712(1)180618121912(1)2.2Cross-PriceElasticityofDemandACross-priceelasticity:Itmeasureshowsensiti

12、vethedemandforgoodXistochangesinthePriCeOfSOmeOthergood,Y,holdingallotherthingsconstant.与%PIftwogoods,XandY,haspositivecross-priceelasticity,thegoodsXandYarereferredtoassubstitutes.，Example:penandpencil.Iftwogoods,XandY,hasnegativecross-priceelasticity,thegoodsXandYarereferredtoascomplements./Exampl

13、e:pencilanderaser.1606(1)2012(1)2.3IncomeElasticityofDemandAIncomeelasticityofdemandisdefinedasthepercentagechangeinquantitydemanded(%()dividedbythePecentaqeChangeinincome(%4I).holdingallOtherthingsconstant,asshown:_%A0：%Positiveincomeelasticitymeansthatasincomerises,thedemandforthegoodalsorises.Goo

14、dswithpositiveincomeelasticityarecallednormalgoods./Luxuries:highpositiveelasticity(1)./Necessities:normalbuthavelowerelasticity(between0and1).Negativeincomeelasticitymeansthatasincomerises,thedemandforthegooddecreases.Goodswithnegativeincomeelasticityarecalledinferiorgoods./Rice,potatoes,orlessexpe

15、nsivecutsofmeat.1412(1)1506(1)1512(1)1606(1)1706(1)1712190619122012(2)3.1NormalandInferiorGoodsThesubstitutioneffectforgoodswillalwaysbepositive.Achangeinthepriceofagoodwillalwaysbeinthedirectionofbuyingmoreatalowerpriceorlessatahigherprice.Theincomeeffectforgoodsdependsonthenatureofthegoods.Fornorm

16、algood,itsincomeeffectispositive,andtheincomeeffectreinforcestheSUbStitUtioneffect,bothleadingtoanegativelyslopeddemandcurve.Forinferiorgood,itsincomeeffectisnegative,andtheincomeeffectandthesubstitutioneffectworkinoppositedirections./Theincomeeffecttendst。mitigatetheSUbStitUtiOneffect.1412(1)1506(1

17、)1512(1)1606(1)3.2GiffenGoodsandVeblenGoodsGiffengoods:Incomeeffect(inferiorgoods)SubstitutioneffectDemandcurvehaspositiveslopeVeblengoods(Conspicuousgoods):Consumercannottrulyvalueagooduntilthepriceisknown.Priceisusedbytheconsumertosignalthestatusinthesociety.Highprice-highValUe-highdemandquantity(

18、extremely)/Haveapositivelyslopeddemandcurve(eg:luxuryautomobileorveryexpensivepieceofjewelry)firstly./BUtWhenPriCeincreases,theSloPemaybenegative,TWoimportantdistinctionsbetweenGiffengoodsandVeblengoods.First,Giffengoodsareinferiorgoods(negativeincomeeffect),whileVeblengoodscertainlyarenot.Second,th

19、eexistenceofGiffengoodsistheoreticallysupportedbyourrulesofconsumerchoice,whiletheexistenceofVeblengoodsisnot.Accounting profitdosti JprofitEcono mic cost (0)AccountingprofitAccountingprofit二totalrevenuertotalaccounting(explicit)costEeonomicprofit=accountingprofit!mlicitopportunitycostsEconomicprofi

20、t=totalrevenuetotaleconomiccostsNormalprofitistheaccountingprofitthatmakeseconomicprofitzero.Accountingprofit=economicprofit+normalPrOfit亏业.创新.t笆值5.TotalfAverage,MarginalProductsATotalproduct(TP):sumoftheoutputfromallinputsduringatimeperiod;usuallyillustratedasthetotaloutput(Q)usinglaborquantity(L)A

21、Averageproduct(AP):totalproductdividedbythequantityofagiveninput;measuredastotalproductdividedbythenumberofworkerhoursusedatthatoutputlevel(QL)AMarginalproduct(MP):theamountofadditionaloutputresultingfromusingonemoreunitofinputassumingotherinputsarefixed;measuredbytakingthedifferenceintotalproductan

22、ddividingbythechangeinthequantityoflabor(QL).领取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebajun888sLawofDiminishingReturnsAThelawofdiminishingmarginalreturnsstatesthatasmoreandmoreresources(suchaslabor)aredevotedtoaproductionprocess,theyincreaseoutputbutataneverdecreasingrate.6.TotalfAverage,andMarginalRevenueTotalrevenue(TR)fo

23、ranyfirmthatchargesasinglepricetoallcustomersiscalculatedaspricemultipliedbyquantitysold,OrTR=EP*Q.Averagerevenue(AR)isequaltototalrevenuedividedbythequantitysold,AR=TRQ.AMarginalrevenue(MR)istheincreaseintotalrevenuefromsellingonemoreunitofagoodorservice.UnderperfectcompetitionTheindividualfirmisap

24、ricetaker.Itmusttakethemarketpriceofitsoutputasgiven,soitfacesaperfectlyelastic,horizontaldemandcurve.Thefirm,saveragerevenue(AR),orrevenueperunit,isalsoequaltopriceperunitMR=Price=ARAUnderimperfectcompetitionFirmthatfacesanegativelyslopeddemandcurveispricesearchers.Totalrevenue(TR)ismaximizedwhenMR

25、=O.TherelationshipbetweenMR,Randpriceelasticityofdemand:MR=Pl-lEp7.LongRunandShortRunLongterm&shorttermTheshortterm/runisdefinedasatimeperiodforwhichquantitiesofsomeresourcesarefixed,suchasbuildings、technologyandequipment.Thetechnologyofproductionisfixedintheshortrunandisaconstraintonafirmsabilityto

26、increaseproduction.Typically,economiststreatIaborandrawmaterialsasVariableintheShortrun,holdingplantsize,capitalequipment,andtechnologyconstant.AllOfthesefactorsbecomeVariableintheIOngrun.CostTotalcost=totalfixedcost+totalvariablecostAMarginalcost=changeintotalcost/changeinoutputAAveragefixedcost=to

27、talfixedcost/outputAveragevariablecost=totalvariablecost/outputAAveragecost=totalcost/output=AFC+AVC1806(1)Total,Average,Marginal,Fixed,VariablecostsAverageandMarginalCostsQAFCslopesdownward.MCdeclinesinitially,thenincreases.MCintersectsAVCandATCattheirminimumpoints.1412(1)1706(1)1812(1)1906(1)8.Pro

28、fitMaximizationAProfitmaximizationOccurswhenThedifferencebetweentotalrevenue(TR)andtotalcosts(TC)isthegreatest;Marginalrevenue(MR)equalsmarginalcost(MC);(MR=MC)Therevenuevalueoftheoutputfromthelastunitofinputemployedequalsthecostofemployingthatinputunit./领取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebaju888s1612(1)1706(1)1712(1)

29、1812(1)1906(1)9.BreakevenPointandShutdownPointAUnderPerfeCtComPetitionRevenue-CostRelationshipShort-RunDecisionLong-RunDecisionARATCStayinmarketStayinmarketAR=ATCBreakevenpointAVCARATCStayinmarketExitmarketAR=AVCShutdownpointARUnderimperfectcompetitionRevenue-CostRelationshipShort-RunDecisionLong-Ru

30、nDecisionTRTCStayinmarketStayinmarketTVCTRTCStayinmarketExitmarketTREconomieoofSCaleoccursifcostperunitofproductionfallsasinputincreases,andtheslopeofLRACisnegative.ADiseconomiesOfSCaleOCCUrSifcostperunitrisesasinputincreases,andtheslopeofLRACispositive.TheFirmandMarketStructuresFramework1.Identific

31、ationofMarketStructure2.PerfectCompetition3.MonopolisticCompetition4.OligopolyKinkeddemandcurvemodelNashequilibriummodelStackelbergdominantfirmmodel5.Monopoly6.ConcentrationMeasures140614121506(1)151216121606(1)1706(1)18061906(1)1.MarketStructureTypeNumberoffirmsDegreeofdifferenceofproductsDifficult

32、ytoenterorleavePricingPowerofFirmTheexampleinourlifePerfectcompetitionManyHomogeneous/StandardizedVerylowNoneSomeagriculturalproductsMonopolisticcompetitionManyDifferentiatedlowSomeSomeretailproductsOligopolyFewHomogeneous/StandardizedHighSomeorConsiderableSteel,automobile,oilPuremonopolyOneUniquePr

33、oductVeryhighConsiderablePublicsectors17061712(1)18061812(1)1906(1)1912(3)2012(1).2.PerfectCompetitionAApricetakerisafirmthatcannotinfluencethemarketpriceandthatsetsitsownpriceatthemarketprice.AIndividualfirm,ademandscheduleisPerfeCtIyelastic(horizontal,Price=Demand=MarginalRevenue=Averagerevenue).P

34、erfectlycompetitionfirm,sshort-runequilibriumProfitmax:MR=MCMR=P=AR=D(pricetaker)AIndividualfirm,slong-runequilibriumunderperfectcompetitionInthelong-run,economicprofitwillattractotherentrepreneurstothemarketmoreoutputThelong-run,firmsoperateatthepointwhereMC=minimumATCSofirmsoperateatthepointP=MR=M

35、C=ATC,nofirmsearnexcessProfit.领取视频及更多资料加微信：xuebajun888s.3.MonopolisticCompetitionThefollowingmarketandproductfeaturesdefinemonopolisticcompetition:Firmsinmonopolisticcompetitionhashighlyelasticitybecauseeachcompetingproductsareclosesubstitutes.Firmshaveadownward-slopingdemandcurvesProductdevelopment

36、andmarketingInnovationandproductdevelopmentBrandnamesAdvertising4OligopolyAOligopolyisaformofmarketcompetitioncharacterizedbyAsmallnumberofsellersInterdependenceamongcompetitorsLargeeconomiesofscaleSignificantbarrierstoentryEithersimilarordifferentiatedproductsAComparedtomonopolisticcompetition,anol

37、igopolymarketincludesfewerfirms,hashigherbarrierstoentry,anditsproductsarelesselastic.Incontrasttoamonopolist,oligopoliesarehighlydependentupontheactionsoftheirrivalswhenmakingbusinessdecisions.AFourmodelsofoligopolyKinkeddemandcurvemodelCournotduopolymodelNashequilibriummodel(prisoner,sdilemma)Stac

38、kelbergdominantfirmmodel15121606(1)1806(1)2012(1)4.1KinkedDemandCurveModel*4.2NashEquilibriumModelIngametheory(thesetoftoolsthatdecisionmakersusetoconsiderresponsesbyrivaldecisionmakers),theNashequilibriumispresentwhentwoormoreparticipantsinanon-cooperativegamehavenoincentivetodeviatefromtheirrespec

39、tiveequilibriumstrategiesaftertheyhaveconsideredandanticipatedtheiropponentsrationalchoicesorstrategies.ATheassumptionismadethateachparticipatingfirmdoesthebestitcan,giventhereactionsofitsrivals.Thefirmsintheoligopolymarkethaveinterdependentactions.Theactionsarenon-cooperative,witheachfirmmakingdeci

40、sionsthatmaximizeitsownprofits.Thefirmsdonotcolludeinanefforttomaximizejointprofits.Theequilibriumisreachedwhenallfirmsaredoingthebesttheycan,giventheactionsoftheirrivals.2012(1)NashEquilibriumModelPrisoners,DilemmaPrisonerYissilentPrisonerYconfessesPrisonerXissilentXgets5monthsYgets5monthsXgets8yea

41、rsYgoesfreePrisonerXconfessesXgoesfreeYgets8yearsXgets3yearsYgets3years*4.3DominantFirmModelDominantfirmmodelAsinglefirmthatgenerallyhave40%orgreatermarketshare./Greatercapacity;/Greatercustomerloyalty.ThedominantfirmisthepricemakerTheotherfirmsinthemarketfollowthepricingpatternofthedominantfirm.Ift

42、heothercompaniesinthemarketattemptstogainmarketsharebyIindefcuttinqthePriCesetbythedominantfirm,themarketShareOfthedominantfirmWillincrease.Overtime,thedominantCOmPanyg11arkeShanetsdeersssprofitattractentrybyothercompanies.A领取视频及更多资料加微信：XUebajUn888s1506(1)1712(1)5.1MonopolyThemonopolist:sdemandsched

43、uleistheaggregatedemandfortheproductintherelevantmarketTheslopeofthedemandcurveisnegativeandthereforedownwardslopingTheprofit-maximizinglevelcfoutputoccurswheremarginalrevenueequalsmarginaLs1,MR=MCThemonopolistssearchtorealizethemaximumprofit,insteadofthemaximumpricesTomaximizeitstotalPrOmonopolistsWiiIPrCduCeIeSSproduelandChargehigherPriCeorilsPrCdUC1,comparedtotheperfectcompetitionmarketTherelationshipbetweenMRandpriceelasticityEisMR=P1-lEpTypesofbarriersLegalbarrierstoentrycre