CFA三级十年真题 (2008-2017)：level_III_essay_questions_2011.docx

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1、TheMorningSessionofthe2011LevelIIICFAuExaminationhas9questions.Forgradingpurposes,themaximumpointvalueforeachquestionisequaltothenumberofminutesallocatedtothatquestion.QuestionTopicMinutes1PortfolioManagementIndividual/Behavioral152PortfolioManagementIndividual233PortfolioManagement一Institutional264

2、PortfolioManagement一Economics235PortfolioManagement-AssetAllocation206PortfolioManagement一FixedIncome197PortfolioManagement一EquityInvestments228PortfolioManagementRiskManagement169PortfolioManagement-PerformanceEvaluation16Total:180THISPAGEINTENTIONALLYLEFTBLANKANYMARKSMADEONTHISPAGEWILLNOTBEGRADEDQ

3、uestions1and2relatetotheBeckerfamily*Atotalof38minutesisallocatedtothesequestions.Candidatesshouldanswerthesequestionsintheorderpresented.QUESTION1HASTWOPARTS(A,B)FORATOTALOF15MINUTES.RobertBecker,age75,retired5yearsagofromthebuildingproductsbusinessthathefounded.Afterhisbusiness,Buildco,wentpublici

4、nthe1990,s,heremainedasCEOandcontinuedtoholdsharesinthecompany.Afterhiswif,sdeath,BeckerhiresEmilyFrost,aportfoliomanagerandtrustspecialist,tohelpwithhisestateplanning.Beckerestablishesarevocabletrustandanirrevocabletrust.Income,realizedcapitalgains,andestateassets(atdeath)arealltaxedataflat20%rate.

5、Fortherevocabletrust,thecostbasisofinvestmentsincreasestothemarketvalueonthedateofBeckersdeath,andtheassetsaresubjecttoestatetaxes.Fortheirrevocabletrust,thecostbasisofinvestmentsdoesnotchange,andtheassetsarenotsubjecttoestatetaxes.Currently,thetwotrustseachhave2.0millionU.S.dollars(USD)oftheirasset

6、sinBuildcoshares,withacostbasisofUSD200,000each.AllBuildcoshareshaveunrealizedcapitalgains.Beckerhasthefollowingtwoimmediateobjectivesaspartofhisestateplanning:Objective1:SellUSD1.0millionofBuildcoshareswhileminimizingtotaltaxes.Objective2:Putadditionalassetsintoatrusttoprotectthoseassetsfrompotenti

7、alfuturelegalclaimsagainstBecker.A.Determinewhichtrust(irrevocable,revocable,orbothequally)ismoreappropriateforeachobjective:i.Objective1ii.Objective2Justifyyourresponsewithonereasonforeachobjective.Note:Considereachobjectiveindependently.AnswerQuestionI-AintheTemplateprovidedonpage5.FrostmeetswithB

8、eckertocomparetheirviewsoninvesting.FourdiscussionsfromthatmeetingareshowninExhibit1.Exhibit1SelectedDiscussionsfromBecker-FrostMeetingDiscussionNumberSpeakerDiscussion1Becker:Frost:ThefirstthingyoumightnoticeaboutmyinvestmentstyleisthatIfavorgrowthinvestmentsoverincome-producingassets.Idon,tthinkth

9、atistherightapproach.Equitiesmightdeliverhigherlong-termreturns.However,foratrustportfolio,Ipreferthattheclientknowsthesizeandtimingofthecashflowshewillbereceiving.That,swhataninvestorgetswithbonds.2Frost:Becker:InoticeyouholdasignificantpositioninRollingMixCementshares.RollingMixCement*sCEOusedtoru

10、nthewesternoperationsforBuildco.Hedidawonderfuljobforus,soIthinkRollingMixsharesaregreattoown.3Frost:Becker:Iwaslookingatthemutualfundsinyourportfolioandcanseethatyoupurchasedanequalamountacrossfourmutualfunds.Ithinkthatmutualfundfamilyoffersfburgreatproducts.SoIboughtallofthem:anEAFElarge-capfund,a

11、U.S.growthfund,aU.S.smallcapfund,andaU.S.corporatebondfund.4Frost:Becker:Inoticeyouhavemanyportfoliopositionswherethecurrentvalueshavebeenbelowcostforawhile.Investingrequirespatience.Youhavetogivethingstimetoworkout.B.Identifythediscussioninwhichoneoftheparticipantsbestillustrateseachofthefollowingb

12、ehavioralbiases:i.representativenessii.framedependenceiii.aversiontoambiguityJustifyeachresponsewithonereason.Note:Considereachbiasindependently.Useeachdiscussiononlyonce.AnswerQuestionI-BintheTemplateprovidedonpage6.AnswerQuestionLonThisPageTemplateforQuestionI-ANote:COnSidereachobjectiveindependen

13、tly.ObjectiveDeterminewhichtrust(irrevocable,revocable,orbothequally)ismoreappropriateforeachobjective.(circleone)Justifyyourresponsewithonereasonforeachobjective.LScllUSD1.0millionOfBuildcoshareswhileminimizingtotaltaxes.irrevocablerevocablebothequally2.Putadditionalassetsintoatrusttoprotectthoseas

14、setsfrompotentialfuturelegalclaimsagainstBecker.irrevocablerevocablebothequallyAnswerQuestiononThisPageTemplateforQuestionI-BNote:Considereachbiasindependently.Useeachdiscussiononlyonce.BehavioralbiasIdentifythediscussioninwhichoneoftheparticipantsbestillustrateseachofthefollowingbehavioralbiases(ci

15、rclethediscussionnumberfromExhibit1).Justifyeachresponsewithonereason.I2i.representativeness341ii.frame2dependence34iii.aversionto12ambiguity34THISPAGEINTENTIONALLYLEFTBLANKANYMARKSMADEONTHISPAGEWILLNOTBEGRADEDQuestions1and2relatetotheBeckerfamily*Atotalof38minutesisallocatedtothesequestions.Candida

16、tesshouldanswerthesequestionsintheorderpresented.QUESTION2HASFOURPARTS(A,B,C,D)FORATOTALOF23MINUTES.Fiveyearshavepassed.RobertBeckerrecentlydiedandlefthisestatetohisonlychild,Michael.Michaelandhiswifeareboth50yearsoldandhavenochildren.Michaelexpectstoreceivehisafter-taxinheritanceof8.0millionU.S.dol

17、lars(USD)attheendofthisyear.TheBeckersbothplantoretireatthattime,andaremeetingwithEmilyFrostlohelpthemestablishaninvestmentplan.TheBeckerscurrentlydonothaveaninvestmentportfolioandtheyownahomevaluedatUSD3.7million.Attheendofthisyear,theBeckers,outstandingdebtwillbeUSD3.5million(homemortgage)andUSD15

18、0,000(consumerdebts).TheBeckerswillpayofftheirmortgageandtheirconsumerdebtssoonaftertheinheritanceisreceived.TheBeckerscurrentlyhaveacombinedafter-taxsalaryofUSD475,000,current-yearlivingexpensesofUSD250,000,plusannualmortgagepayments(principal+interest)ofUSD225,000.MichaescompanypensionwillpayhimUS

19、D48,000after-taxnextyear,andthenpaymentswillgrowattherateofination,whichisexpectedtobe3%annually.HisemployerwillcontinuetopayalloftheBeckers,medicalcostsuntildeath.BoththepensionandhealthbenefitswillcontinuetoaccruetoBecker,swife,ifhediesfirst.TheBeckersexpecttheirlivingexpenseswillalsocontinuetogro

20、wattherateofinflationuntiloneofthemdies.Atthattime,theyexpectthesurvivor,slivingexpenseswilldecreaseto75%oftheircombinedexpenses,andthencontinuetogrowattherateofinflation.TheBeckersintendtofundtheirlivingexpenseswithMichaespensionandinvestmentincomegeneratedfromtheirinvestableassets,whichdonotinclud

21、etheirhome.TheBeckersconsidertheirinvestmentbasetobelarge,andwanttheirportfoliotobeinvestedconservatively.Theywanttomaintaintherealvalueoftheirinvestableassetsovertime,andplantoleavetheirestatetocharity.Allincomeandrealizedcapitalgainsaretaxedat20%.A.Calculatetheafter-taxnominalrateofreturnrequiredf

22、ortheBeckers,firstyearofretirement.Showyourcalculations.(8minutes)B.DiscusstwofactorsspecifictotheBeckers,situationthatdecreasetheirrisktolerance.C.FormulateeachofthefollowingconstraintsfortheBeckers,investmentpolicystatement(IPS):i.liquidityii.timehorizon(4minutes)Severalyearslater,theBeckersagainm

23、eetwithFrost.TheirinvestableportfolioisnowvaluedatUSD7.0million.TheBeckersstatethattheirprimarygoalistomaintaintheircurrentlivingstandardaslongastheylive.TheBeckersalsowanttoleaveacharitablegiftofatleastUSD5.0millionfromtheirinvestableassetsaftertheyhavebothdied.However,theyarenotwillingtoriskrunnin

24、goutofmoneyintheiroldagetoachievethissecondarygoal.TheBeckersagreewithFrosttoassumea25-yeartimehorizon.FrostproducesMonteCarlosimulationsfortheBeckersusingtwoportfolioswithdifferentassetallocations.Thesimulationsusealongseriesofhistoricalindexdataforeachassetclassinthetwoportfolios.Theresultingdistr

25、ibutionsofterminalvaluesareshowninExhibit1.Allterminalvaluesareafterexpectedtaxesandspendingneedshavebeenmet.Exhibit1MonteCarloSimulationResultsProjectedPortfolioTerminalValuesat25YearsPercenlileTerminalValues(USDthousands)PortfolioAPortfolioB95th17,80835,81490由11,91621,72975th9,19214,45450,h4,8968.

26、81325th2,1545,01610th29405,fa390D.i.Determine,basedontheMonteCarlosimulations,whichportfolio(AorB)willbetterallowtheBeckerstoachievetheirgoals.Justifyyourresponsewithonereasonrelatedtorisk.ii.DiscusstwoimprovementsFrostcouldmakeinherMonteCarlosimulations.QUESTION3HASFIVEPARTS(A,B,C,D,E)FORATOTALOF26

27、MINUTES.StacyBergenisaconsultantfortheendowmentsoftwoAmericanuniversities-WeymountUniversity(WU)andSlateUniversity(SU).WUisaprivateuniversitywithannualoperatingexpensesof150.0millionU.S.dollars(USD).WUhasanendowmentcurrentlyvaluedatUSD750.0million.BergengathersthefollowinginformationaboutWUanditsend

28、owment:TheWUendowmentsprimarygoalistomaintaintherealvalueofitsassetsoverthelongterm.TheWUendowmentssecondarygoalistocontinuetofund25%ofWU,sannualoperatingexpenses,bymeansofitsspendingrule.Tuitionandgrantsfundtheremainderoftheannualoperatingexpenses.Asaprivateinstitution,WUreceivesnogovernmentfinanci

29、alsupport.TheWUendowment:usesasimplespendingrulewitha5%annualspendingratebasedontheendowmentsbeginning-of-yearmarketvalue.receivesprivatedonationsandusesthesedonations,inpart,foritsliquidityneeds.evaluatesitsinvestmentmanagersbasedontheendowmentsthree-yearaverageannualreturn.forecaststheinflationrat

30、eofWU,soperatingexpensestobeequaltothegrowthrateoftheHigherEducationPriceIndex(HEPI),whichisexpectedtobe4%annually.ohasanannual0.55%managementexpenserate.A.i.FormulatethereturnobjectivefortheWUendowment.ii.CalculatetherequiredreturnfortheWUendowment.Showyourcalculations,(4minutes)B.Determinehowachan

31、geineachofthefollowingfactors,holdingallelseconstant,affectstherisktolerance(increases,decreases,doesnotchange)fortheWUendowment:i.privatedonationsii.expectedinflationJustifyeachresponsewithonereason.Note:Considereachfactorindependently.AnswerQuestion3-BintheTemplateprovidedonpage20.C.Formulateeacho

32、fthefollowingconstraintsfortheWUendowmentsinvestmentpolicystatement(IPS):i.liquidityii.timehorizon(4minutes)AyearhaspassedsinceBergen,sinitialreview.Duetosignificantlossesinthemarketvalueoftheportfolio,theWUendowmentnowprovideslessthan25%ofWU,soperatingexpenses.Inaddition,donationshavedeclined.Thein

33、vestmentcommitteeasksBergentoproposemeasurestomaintainthelong-termrealvalueoftheendowment,andreducethevolatilityoftheendowmentsfundingOfWUsoperatingexpenses.Inresponse,Bergensuggeststhefollowingstrategicactions:Strategicaction1:Decreasetheendowmentsspendingrate.Strategicaction2:Adoptarollingthree-ye

34、araveragespendingrule,basedontheendowmentsbeginning-of-yearmarketvalueforthelastthreeyears.Strategicaction3:Revisetheportfblio,sassetallocationtodecreaseitsrisk.D.DeterminewhichoneofBergen,sstrategicactionsis:i.leastlikelytoassisttheendowmentinachievingitsprimarygoal.ii.mostlikelytoreducethevolatili

35、tyoftheendowmentsfundingofWU,soperatingexpenses.Justifyeachresponsewithonereason.AnswerQuestion3-DintheTemplateprovidedonpage22.(6minutes)Bergensotherinstitutionalclient,SU,isagrowingpublicuniversity.SUhasanannualoperatingbudgetofUSD210.0million.TheSUendowmentiscurrentlyvaluedatUSD700.0million.Berge

36、ngathersthefollowinginformationaboutSUanditsendowment:TheSUendowmentsprimarygoalistomaintaintherealvalueofitsassetsoverthelongterm.TheSUendowmentssecondarygoalistocontinuetofundSU,sannualoperatingbudgetshortfall(currently10%oftheoperatingbudget),solongasthatdoesnotviolateitsspendingrule.o90%ofSU,sop

37、eratingbudgetisfundedbygovernmentfundingandtuition,andthisisexpectedtocontinue.TheSUendowment:fundsSU,soperatingbudgetshortfall,butcapsitscontributionatitsspendingmaximum.ohasaspendingmaximumthatis5%oftheaverageofthelastthreeyears,beginning-of-yearmarketvalue.hasexperiencedsignificantgrowthinprivate

38、donationsoverthelast10years.evaluatesitsinvestmentmanagersbasedontheendowmentssix-yearaverageannualreturn.forecaststheinflationrateofSUsoperatingbudgetat1percentagepointbelowthegrowthrateoftheHEPLTheHEPIisexpectedtogrowat4%annually.E.DiscussthreefactorsthatsuggesttheSUendowmenthasgreaterrisktoleranc

39、ethantheWUendowment.(6minutes)ANYMARKSMADEONTHISPAGEWILLNOTBEGRADEDAnswerQuestion3onThisPageTemplateforQuestion3-BNote:Considereachfactorindependently.FactorDeterminehowachangeineachofthefactors,holdingallelseconstant,affectstherisktolerance(increases,decreases,doesnotchange)fortheWUendowment,(circl

40、eone)Justifyeachresponsewithonereason.i.privatedonationsincreasesdecreasesdoesnotchangeii.expectedinflationincreasesdecreasesdoesnotchangeAnswerQuestion3onThisPageTemPlateforQUeSlion3-DDctcnnincwhichoneofBergen,sstrategicactionsis:Bcrgen,sstrategicactions(circleone)Justifyeachresponsewithonereason.i

41、.leastlikelytoassisttheendowmentinachievingitsprimarygoal.123ii.mostlikelytoreducethevolatilityoftheendowmentsfundingofWU,soperatingexpenses.123THISPAGEINTENTIONALLYLEFTBLANKANYMARKSMADEONTHISPAGEWILLNOTBEGRADEDQUESTION4HASFIVEPARTS(A,B,C,D,E)FORATOTALOF23MINUTES.DanielWallbankisthechiefinvestmentof

42、ficerofalargeglobalassetmanagementfirm.Heisconsideringequityinvestmentsinaspecificdevelopingcountry.Hisprimaryconcernistodeterminetheintrinsicvalueofthatcountry,sbroadequityindexrelativetoitscurrentmarketvalue.Wallbankasksthefirm,smarketstrategist,JudyShipp,toassisthimwiththevaluationprocess.Shippsu

43、ggestsusingtheCobb-Douglasproductionfunction,undertheassumptionofconstantreturnstoscale,tomodelthegrowthinrealeconomicoutput.Herpreviousresearchshowsthat,overthelongtermandinadevelopingcountry,thegrowthrateofcorporateearningsanddividends,adjustedforinflation,shouldcloselytrackthegrowthofrealgrossdom

44、esticproduct(GDP).HerresearchonthiscountryprovidestheprojectionsshowninExhibit1.Exhibit1CountryProjections(2011-2025)Averageannualgrowthintotalfactorproductivity(TFP)2.8%Averageannualgrowthincapitalstock3.6%Averageannualgrowthinlaborinput2.2%Averageunemploymentrate2.0%Outputelasticityofcapital0.4A.C

45、alculatetheprojectedaverageannualrealGDPgrowthrateusingtheCobb-DouglasproductionfunctionandtheinformationinExhibit1.Showyourcalculations.(4minutes)ShipptellsWallbankthattheCobb-DouglasprojectionofGDPgrowthmaybeaffectedbytwoactionsthecountrysgovernmentisconsidering:Action1:Issuenewregulationstoreduce

46、environmentalpollutionbymanufacturers.Action2:Decreasetheminimumretirementagebythreeyearsforallworkers.B.Determinetheinitialeffect(increase,decrease,ornochange)eachactionwouldmostlikelyhaveonthecountrysGDPgrowthtrend.Justifyeachresponsewithonereason.Note:Nocalculationsarerequired.Considereachactioni

47、ndependently.AnswerQuestion4-BintheTemplateprovidedonpage28.(6minutes)Shippcompilesthedatatoestimatetheintrinsicvalueofthecountrysbroadequityindex.Thecurrentannualdividendfortheindexis10.00U.S.dollars(USD).Sheassumestheinitialdividendgrowthrateis6.0%andthatover15yearsthedividendgrowthratewilldeclinelinearlybyatotalof50%.Theassumeddiscountratetoperpetuityis5.5%.C.Calculatethecountry,sbroadequityindexpricelevelimpliedbytheH-Model.Showyourcalculations.(4minutes)ShipptellsWallbanktherearetwoalternativemodelsthatcanbeusedtodeterminethefairvalueofane