可持续发展与国际关系研究所-大型新兴经济体深度脱碳的政策教训（英）-2021.11-86正式版.docx

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1、0DDECARBONlZATlOh_DAYXWAVC POLICYLESSONS ONDEEPDECARBONIZATION inlargeemergingeconomies Brazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica AninternationalreportcoordinatedbytheDeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative NOVEMBER2021 IDDRI Copyright2021IDDRI TheInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentandInternationalRela

2、tions(IDDRI)encouragesthereproductionandpubliccommunicationofitscopyrightmaterials,withpropercredit(bibliographicalreferenceand/orcorrespondingURL),forpersonal,corporateorpublicpolicyresearch,oreducationalpurposes.However,IDDRscopyrightedmaterialsarenotformmercialuseordissemination(printorelectronic

3、).Unlessexpresslystatedotherwise,thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedinthisdocumentarethoseofthevariousauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseofIDDRsboard.Citation DDP(2021).Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies.DeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative-IDDRI.Par

4、is.Thereportisavailableonline:https:ddpinitiative.org/CategOrV/publication/Contact HenriWaisman,heni.waismaniddri.ora Financialsupportfrom ThereportPOLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesisfinanciallysupportedbytheInternationalClimateInitiative(IKI)oftheGermanFederalMinistryforthe

5、Environment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety(BMU)aspartoftheClimateActionAfterParisproject(nr.18_l_326).Production:IDDRI.Editing:MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,LolaVallejo,HenriWaisman.Layout:IvanPharabod.POLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATION inlargeemergingeconomies Introduction 3 Brazil:5 Intro

6、duction 5 Part 1:Scenarioresults 7 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 18 Annex 23 India:25 Introduction 25 Part 1:Scenarioresults 27 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 32 Indonesia:39 Part 1:Scenarioresults 40 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 51 SouthAfrica:55 Introduction 55 Part 1:Scenarioresults 56 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 62Th

7、isreporthasbeenauthoredbyaconsortiumofindependentexpertsactingintheirpersonalcapacitiesandwhohavenotbeennominatedbytheirrespectivegovernments.Theviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotreflecttheviewsofanygovernmentororganization.Introduction MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,HiltonTrollip1HenriWaisman.Thew

8、orldhasagreedtopreventtheirreversibledamagestohumanandnaturalecosystemscausedbyanthropogenicglobalwarmingbylimitingtheriseofglobaltemperaturetowellbelow2andtopursueeffortstolimititto1.5.Toimplementthis,theParisAgreementgroundsthisgoalintermsofglobalemissiontrajectoriesandtheneedtoembedthemintheinthe

9、contextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty.Subsequentlyscience(IPCCSR1.5)furtherspecifiesthatglobalneutralityconcerningcarbondioxidespecificallyshouldhappenbetween2050(for1,5)and2075(for2).Italsopointsoutthenecessityofmindingnon-CO2forcerstomaintaintheglobalobjective.Toreachthisscal

10、eofemissionreductions,thescientificassessmentconcludesthatrapidandfar-reachingtransformations,farbeyondwhathasbeenobservedinthepast,arerequiredinallcomponentsoftheeconomicsystem,i.e.inenergy,urbanandinfrastructure,industryandlandandecosystems.Suchdrastictransitionsinturnrequireprofoundchangesintechn

11、ologiesbutalsoinsocial,economic,institutionalandpolicycondi-tions.Scienceshowsthatthechangesrequiredbyclimateobjectivescanbecompatiblewithbroadersustainabledevelopmentobjectivesifactionisimple-mentedwithoutdelay,isguidedbystrategicvisionsoftransformationsinformingthedesignofwell-designedpolicypackag

12、esandthecooperationamongactorsandisenabledbyeffectiveinternationalcooperation.Withtheseframeworknditionsathand,countriesaresettoexplorenationalpathwaystoexplainhowtherapidandfar-reachingtransitionsrequiredgloballycanhappenineachcountryntext.Nationaldeepdecarbonisationoflargeemergingeconomieshasbeenl

13、argelyexploredfromatech-no-economicperspective,resultinginviablesetsoflong-termpathwaysunderanumberofconditions.Existinganalysisshowsthatthenationaltransitioncanmostlybeeninitiatedusingexistingtechnologiesandmarketinstrumentsatlowandoftennetnegativefinancialstandthat,usually,thesetransformationscanh

14、aveassociatedlargeoverallneteconomicbene-fitswhenexternaleconomicandenvironmentalcostsandbenefitsarefactoredin.However,similartomostpartsoftheworld,mostmajornecessarydecarboni-sationtransformationsareeithernothappeningorhappeningataslowerpacethannecessary.Thisgapbetweenexistingevidenceandconcreteact

15、ionhigh-lightsthatthecarbonneutraltransitionisnotonlyamatteroftechno-economicfeasibilitybutessentiallyaquestionofpoliticaleconomy.Actualimplemen-tationrequiresclarityaboutthechoicestobemadeinthetransition,abouttheconcretepoliciesandactionsthatcanbeenvisaged,aboutthosewhocanbewinnersandthosewhomaylos

16、eandthemeasuresadoptedtomanagethesocio-economiccostsofthetransition.Scientificassessmentsshouldthereforebeseenlessasaninstrumenttoillustratetransitionpathwaysinanormativemannerthanasawaytodeterminetheinclusivewhole-of-societyconversa-tionthatwouldberequiredtomakethetransitioneffectiveandacceptable.T

17、heDDPmmunitybehindthisreporthascommit-tedtothisvisionoftheroleofscenarioanalysisinthepublicdebate.Thebodyofknowledgeemergingfromthiscommunityaimsatensuringthatthefeaturesofthetechno-enomicdeepdecarbonisationtransfor-mationsarecontextualizedinthediversityofcountrycircumstancesanddescribedwithsufficie

18、ntdetailsandgranularitytoinformdecisionsrequiredtodrivethesetransformations.Keychallengestodate,whicharecriticaltoincreaseambitionandaccelerateaction,include:connectingthescenariosanalysisandthediversityofpoliciesandactionstoimplementationintherealworld;revealingthecriticalconditionsthatareoutsideth

19、econtrolofnationalauthorities,whereinternationalcooperationmustplayarole,andensuringownershipoftheinsightsemergingfromthescenariosbyadiversityofactorstoempowertheminthepublicdebates.TheDDPapproachunderlyingthisreportsresearchisestablishedwiththesekeychallengesinmind.Itisfundamentallyacountry-drivene

20、xploration,backcastingfromthemid-centuryemissionandsocio-eco-nomicobjectivestoinformtheshort-termdecisionswithinandacrosssystems.Sectoraldeepdivesallowforanin-depthinvestigationofalllevers,opportunitiesandchallengessuitedtoinformdomesticstake-holderdebateinhighlycomplicatedsectors,suchastransport,in

21、dustry,oragriculture/land-use,whicharetraditionallyrepresentedpoorlyinexistinglong-termroadmaps.Thestakeholderengagementapproachtothedevelopmentofthescenariosandemanatingpolicyinsightsisanessentialmeansforthesescien-tificassessmentstoserveanactionagenda.Thisreportpresentsasynthesisoftheresultsofthea

22、ssessmentsconductedinBrazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica.Foreachofthecountrieschapters,PartIdescribesthemainfeaturesoftheeconomy-wideDeepDecarbonizationScenario(三)(DDS)1includingadescriptionofkeynational-scalesocio-economicaspectsandanexplicitcharacterisationoftheemis-sionobjectiveandtrajectory.Tor

23、ealisethenecessarychangestogetontracktothispath,adescriptionoftheCurrentPolicyScenario(CPS)isalsopresented,includingadescriptionofthemainpoliciesandactionsconsidered.Scenarioresultsincludeanin-depthdescriptionatsectorlevelforthedeepdivesselectedbyeachuntry.PartIlofthecountrychaptersfocusesonkeypolic

24、ylessons,whichcanserveasdirectinputsintopolicyconversationsatthecountrylevel.Itincludesadescriptionofthemainsynergiesandtrade-offswithcountrynon-climateobjectives,prior-ityshort-termpoliciesandactions,withafocusonwhereshiftsfromcurrentpathsarecriticallyrequired,investmentspatternsandkeyinternational

25、enablersandacceleratorsofdomestictransitions.TheBrazilianNDChasaneconomy-widegoalof37%GHGemissionreduction,by2025and43%reductionby2030,comparedwith2005asthebaseyear.Brazilalsomadevoluntarycommitmentsofemissionreductionsin2009duringCOP15(Copenhagen)linkedtoitsNAMAs1correspondingtokeepemissionsbelowac

26、apofroughly2GtC2eqin2020.Morerecently,theBrazilianPresidentannouncedattheClimateLeaderSummitorganizedbyUSPresidenton22April2021thecountryscommitmenttoreachclimateneutralityby2050.ThisstudysimulatestwoGHGemissionsscenariosinBraziluntil2050.Itprovidesaframeworkforananalysisofeconomy-wideandsectoralind

27、icatorsofadecarbonizationpathwayalignedwiththegeneralobjectiveoftheParisAgreement(net-zeroGHGemissionsin2050).TheCurrentPoliciesScenario(CPS)followsthetrendofongo-ingmitigationactions.Itsemissionsareof1.65GtC2eqin2030,withnoincreaseinambitionbetween2030and2050.TheCPSnearlymeetsthecountrystargetfor20

28、30underthenewfirstNDCbutisabovethefigure(1.4GtC2eq)ofarevisedtargetwhenthe2005baseyearemis-sionsareupdatedaccordingtothenew4thnationalemissionsinventory.TheDeepDecarbonizationScenario(DDS)reaches1.0GtC2qin2030,goingbeyondtheNDCtargetandfollowingaGHGemissionstrajectorycompatiblewiththeglobalobjective

29、of1.50C,achievingnet-zeroemissionsin2050.ThesectoralmitigationmeasuresconsideredinCPSarebasedonnationalplansandpolicies.DDSincorporatesmoreambitiousactionsandotheravailabletechnologies.DDSsmainfeaturesarearadicalreductionindeforestationratesandanincreaseofcarbonsinks.Carbonpricingfrom2021isassumedfo

30、rasignificantshareoftheemissions(EnergyandIPPU),withsectorsintroducingmitigationactionswithcostsEmilio L.La Rovere Carolina B.S.Dubeux William WiHS Michele K.C.Walter Giovanna Naspolini Otto Hebeda Daniel N.S.Gongalvez George V.Goes Marcio DAgosto Erika C.Nogueira Sergio H.F.da Cunha Claudio Gesteir

31、a Gaelle Le Treut Giovanna Cavalcanti Mark Bermanzon Center for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment(CENTRO CLIMA)at COPPE/UFRJ-Institute for Research and Graduate Studies of Engineering,Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.underthecarbonpriceineachperiod,startingwiththemostcost-

32、effective.Carbonpricesareintroducedthroughacap-andtradesysteminIndustry,andacarbontaxonGHGemissionsfromthecombustionoffossilfuelsinothersectors.Theywillgrowlinearly,reaching25USDtC02qin2030 and65USDtC02eqin2050.Carbonpricingwillbeneutralfromafiscalperspective,with100%ofitsrevenuesrecycledbackintothe

33、economythroughlabourchargesreductionaimingtofosteremployment,andtocompensatelow-incomehouseholdsfortheaveragepricelevelincrease.Populationsizeincreasesfrom210millioninhab-itantsin2019toabout233millioninhabitantsin2050.Inthisperiod,theurbanpopulationsharegrowsfrom86%to89%,Followingthesharpdown-turnin

34、theeconomyfrom2015to2020duetoapolitical-economiccrisisandtheCOVID-19pandemic,Brazilianeconomyeconomicrecoveryisassumedtostarton2021:annualaverageGDPgrowthrateswouldbeof3,5%in2021;2.5%from2021to2030;2,25%from2031to2040;and2%from2041to2050(withlineargrowthassumedwithineachdecade).Afterthedrawbackinthe

35、2015-2020period,Giniindexstartstodecreaseagain,butslowerthanthe2000-2015record.Householdsizeisprojectedtodecreaseslowlywhilehouseholddisposableincomeasa%ofGDPisprojectedtoincrease.TradewillbecomemoreimportanttoBrazilduringthescenariotimeframe,andimporttaxesandprotectionismwillbereduced,followingtheg

36、lobaltrend.Weuseanintegratedmodellingapproach,whereasetofsixsectoralmodelsislinkedtoaCGEmodel(IMACLIM-BR).Thesectoralmodelsconsistoffourenergydemandmodels(transport,industry,buildings,andagricultureenergydemand),anagri-culture,forestryandotherlanduse(AFOLU)modelandanenergysupplymodel(MATRIZ).GHGemis

37、sionestimatesfromWastecompletethepicture.PART1:SCENARIORESULTS EMISSIONPROFILES GHGemissionsreach17MtCO2eqinDDSand1889inCPSby2050.Comparing2050inbothscenarioswith2020values,DDSis99%lower,while 7Table sector.MostGHGemissionreductionscomefromlandusechangeandforestry.ComparedtoCPS,in2050DDSemissionsfro

38、mdeforestationare93%lower,areductionof953MtCO2eq.Onthetopofthat,carbonremovalsincrease76%lequivalentto451MtCO2eq,thankstoincreasedforestedandprotectedareas(indigenouslandsandconservationunits).Transportisthesecondmostrelevantsector,withanemissionreductionof126MtCO2eq(53%),followedbythewastesectorwit

39、hareductionof120MtCO2eq(65%),andlivestockactivitieswith116MtCO2eq(22%).Finally,inindustrythereductionisof84MtCO2eq(31%),andinenergysupplyaddedtootherenergyconsumptionsectorsof27MtC2q(23%).Theonlyactivitywithasmallincreaseinemissionsiscropping,with4MtC2q(4%)moreemissionsinDDSduetohigherbiofuelsproduc

40、tion.InDDS,onlytwosectorshavehigherGHGemis-sionsin2050thaninthebaseyear2019:croppingactivitiesincreaseemissionsby29%;andindustryby14%.Inthesecases,undertheassumptionofnomajorbreakthroughsordisruptivetechnologies,theimprovementoftechnologiescurrentlyinusewasnotsufficienttocompensateforthehigherproduc

41、tionlevels.MITIGATIONACTIONS ANDCOSTS InDDS,besidesthehugeefforttocurbdowndeforestationandincreaseremovals,thecarbonpricingpolicysuppliesthecomplementarymiti-gationactionsinothersectorsrequiredtoreachnet-zeroemissionsin2050.Table2presentsthecumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsperdecade(MtCO2eq).Mtc02eq 200

42、5 2010 2019 2020 2030 2005-2030 2040 2050 CPS-DDS(2050)Land Use Change CPS 2,171 668 1,024-53%1,024 1,024-93%(LUC)-gross emissions DDS 614-72%201 71 Removals CPS.249-313.574.591-556 123%-576-593 76%(LUC,Forest,Protected Areas and Other)DDS -695 179%-794-1042 Agriculture CPS 146 161 92 92 97-34%101 1

43、15 4%(crops+energy)DDS 99-32%106 119 Livestock CPS 329 329 433 432 466 42%485 529-22%DDS 453 38%444 413 Transport CPS 139 173 196 175-209 50%220 240-53%DDS 167 20%139 114 Industry CPS 139 162 162 166 194 40%232 268-31%(energy+IPPU)DDS 172 23%180 184 Energy(supply+demand from households CPS 100 111 1

44、21 95 127 27%115 120-23%and services)DDS 120 21%100 93 Waste CPS 61 69 100 102-105 71%145 186 65%DDS 76 25%78 65 Total CPS 2.837 1,361 1 47Q 1 a 1,665-41%1,745 1,889-99%DDS 1,005-65%454 17 Table 1-Total GHG Emissions per Sector,2005-2050,under CPS and DDS(Mt C2q)Commandandntrolpoliciescombinedwithco

45、nstrainingtheaccessoffarmersandrancherstopubliccredits(subjecttoconformitywithenvironmentallawsandregulations)achieve59%oftotalcumulativeGHGemissionreduc-tionsupto2050,throughthesharpreductionofannualdeforestationrate.The2004-2012recordhasalreadyshownthepotentialofthesemeasuresthatcanbesuccessfullya

46、doptedagain.Command-and-controlmeasuresalsoallowtoavoiddefor-estationthroughtheincreaseofthenumberandthesurfaceofconservationareas(e.g.,permanentpreservationareas,indigenouslanddemarcation,andotherlegalreserves).Thecarbonpricingpolicycansupply30%oftotalcumulativeavoidedemissionsupto2050indifferentse

47、ctors:AFOLU(18%),Transport(6.5%),Industry(4%),andEnergysupply(1%).Nativevegetationrestorationinpublicandprivateareashaveasignificantabatementpotentialandlowercoststhantheothersectors.Itallowstoremove2,647MtC2qupto2050,whennativevegetationrestorationwillreach30.18millionha.Privateareaspresentmoreattr

48、activecostsincomparisonwithpublicareas(7versus17USD/tC2qin2021,8versus28in2031,and9versus31in2041).ConsideringtheenforcementofForestCodecompliance,privateareasprovidehighercumulativeavoidedemissionsin2021-2030(121versus38Mt2eq)andin2031-2040(322versus302MtC2q)thanpublicareas.However,inthelastdecade,

49、thebulkofremovalswillcomefrompublicareasthankstoabettercost-effectiveness,andthusitscontributiontocumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsthroughoutthewhole2020-2050periodwillbeof1,6311against1,015MtC2qfromprivateareas.Theabatementcostassessmentindicatesthepathwayofcarbonprices.Costsforagivenmitiga-tionoptionm

50、ayvarythroughoutthethreedecadesCumulative avoided emissions per decade(Mt CO2eq)Decades 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050 Total Mitigation Actions 3,629 10,069 16,103 Carbon Pricing Policy 1,013 2,618 5.254 AFOLU 619 1,483 3,281 Native forest restoration in public areas(through government concession)38