国际事务研究院-区域分裂与欧盟外交与安全政策（英）-2021.11-29正式版.docx

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1、November 2021Contributing authors:Assem Dandashly, Nothando Maphalala and Akm UnverJOINTAjoined-upUnion,astrongerEuropeJOINTResearchPapersNo.3RegionalFragmentationandEUForeignandSecurityPolicyAgnesLevalloisThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionsHorizon2020researchandinnovationprogrammeund

2、ergrantagreementN.959143.Thispublicationreflectsonlytheviewoftheauthor(s)andtheEuropeanCommissionisnotresponsibleforanyusethatmaybemadeoftheinformationitcontains.RegionalFragmentationandEUForeignandSecurityPolicyLeadauthor:AgnesLevalloisContributingauthors:AssemDandashly,NothandoMaphalalaandAkmUnver

3、*AbstractThereisbroadacademicconsensusonthefactthatthefragmentationofregionspresentsasignificantchallengefortheEU.Fragmentationunderminestheauthorityofcentralstates,theEU,smostnaturalcounterparts,anddistributesitamongstagreatnumberofactors-includingnon-statearmedgroups.Toaddressfragmentation,theEUsh

4、ouldincreasecoordinationbetweenactors(EUinstitutionsandmemberstates),integrateactionsacrossdifferentpolicyareas(securityandnon-security,externalandinternal)andengagewithexternalplayers(multilateralorganisations,globalpowers,regionalandlocalactors).AgndsLevalloisisSeniorResearchFellowattheFoundationf

5、orStrategicResearch(FRS).AssemDandashlyisAssistantProfessorinPoliticalScienceatthePoliticalScienceDepartmentofMaastrichtUniversity(UM).NothandoMaphalalaisHeadofResearchattheInstituteforPeaceandSecurityStudies(IPSS)ofAddisAbabaUniversity.AkinUnverisAssistantProfessorofInternationalRelationsatKadirHas

6、University.TheauthorswouldliketothankHylkeDijkstrafromUM,RiccardoAlcaro,HeadofGlobalActorsattheIstitutoAffariInternazionali(IAI)andJOINTCoordinator,GiulioPugliese,SeniorAsiaFellowatIAIandJOINTAssistantCoordinator,andLaurianeHeaufromFRSforprovidingfeedbackandreviewingthetext.IntroductionOverthepastfe

7、wyears,scholarsofInternationalRelationshavebeenincreasinglystudyingstatesthatlackcertainelementsofsovereignty,suchasufailedstates,uweakstates,collapsedstates,statesaffectedby,1imitedstatehoodOrcontestedstatehood,andunrecognisedstatesn.Overthepastfewyears,thenumberofcountriesthatfallintooneofthesecat

8、egoriesofstateshasincreased-especiallyinareassurroundingtheEuropeanUnion(EU)(eastandsouth).ThisliteraturereviewprovideabetterunderstandingofthephenomenonofregionalfragmentationanditsimpactonEUforeignandsecuritypolicy.Specifically,itanswersthefollowingquestion:accordingtotheexistingliterature,howdoes

9、increasingregionalfragmentationaffecttheabilityoftheEUanditsmemberstatestodevelop,articulateandimplementcommonactiononcrisesandconflicts?Thisworkestablishesaconceptualbackground,highlightingtheconnectionbetweenthefragmentationofregionsandthe(in)abilityoftheEUanditsmemberstatestoformulateandimplement

10、common(oratleastcoordinated)actions.Thereviewstartsbyprovidingabriefdefinitionofregionalfragmentation.Thisisfollowedbyadiscussionofthemultiplelevelsatwhichittakesplace.Thenextsectionfocusesonthedriversandtheactorsoffragmentation.Lastly,thepaperconsiderstheimpactoffragmentationontheEU,sabilitytoaddre

11、sscrisesandconflict.ThefinalsectionconcludeswiththemainfindingsoftheliteratureonregionalfragmentationanditsimpactontheEU.1. TheconceptofregionalfragmentationFragmentationhasbeenconceptualisedindifferentacademicdisciplines,andmanydefinitionsoftheconcepthaveemergedasaresult.InthefieldsofGeography1 Tho

12、masRisse1wGovernanceConfigurationsinAreasofLimitedStatehood.Actors,Modes,Institutions,andResources*,inSFB-GovernanceWorkingPapers,No.32(April2012),https7www.sfb-governance.de/en/publikationen/sfb-700-working_papers/wp32/index.html;ThomasRisse,GovernanceunderLimitedSovereigntyw,inMarthaFinnemoreandJu

13、dithGoldstein(eds),BacktoBasics.StatePowerinaContemporaryWorld,Oxford,OxfordUniversityPress,2013,p.78-104;RobertI.Rotberg(ed.),WhenStatesFail.CausesandConsequences,Princeton,PrincetonUniversityPress,2004;RosaEhrenreichBrooks,TailedStates,ortheStateasFailure?0,inTheUniversityofChicagoLawReview,Vol.72

14、,No.4(Fall2005),p.1159-1196,https:/scholarship.law.georgetown.edU/facpub/1108.andEconomics,forinstance,fragmentationhasbeenconceivedastheweakeningoftheelementsformingasystem:thediscontinuity,rupture,andisolationofspaces.ThisdefinitionisalsovalidinPoliticalScienceandSociology,insofarasthespacessubjec

15、tedtodiscontinuity,ruptureandisolationareunderstoodaspoliticalspaces,namelyspacesthecontrolofwhichisputativelyinthehandsofthestate.Whilevalid,thisdefinitionisinsufficient,asitdoesnottakeaccountoftheprocessbywhichinstitutionssystemserode.Fragmentationrelatestothephenomenonofamultiplicationofactors,af

16、fectinggoals,modalities,andinstrumentsofgovernanceConsequently,somescholarshaveattemptedamorecomprehensiveconceptualisationoffragmentationbytheidentificationofthreedimensions:uthenumberoforganizationsinamovement;thedegreeofinstitutionalizationacrosstheseorganizationsandthedistributionofpoweramongthe

17、m,.3Forthepurposeofthisliteraturereview,inwhichwefocusonregionsaffectedbycrisesandconflict,weunderstandfragmentationastheprocessbywhichstateauthority(thestateholdingthelegitimatemonopolyoverthemeansofviolenceandtheabilitytosetandenforcerules)andregionalrulesofengagementareerodingorcollapsingaltogeth

18、er.Fragmentationisamultifacetedandmulti-levelphenomenonthatoccursnotonlyatthestatelevel,butalsowithinregionsandcommunities,multiplyingthenumberofactorsinvolvedintheprocess.Followinganexplorationofthekeyfactorsofregionalfragmentation-whetherpolitical,social,economic,ethnic,religious,orideological,the

19、reviewhighlightsthediversityofactorscontributingtoandresultingfromthisprocess.2. LevelsoffragmentationThephenomenonoffragmentationtakesplaceatvariouslevels:states,regionsandcommunities.Statesinfragmentedregionsincreasinglygetincompetitionwithothercentresofpowers,includingnon-stateactors,intheirmissi

20、onof2StephanKlingebiel,TimoMahnandMarioNegre1Tragmentation:AKeyConceptforDevelopmentCooperation,inStephanKlingebiel,TimoMahnandMarioNegre(eds),TheFragmentationofAid.Concepts,MeasurementsandImplicationsforDevelopmentCooperation,London,PalgraveMacmillan,2016,p.1-18.3 KristinM.Bakke,KathleenGallagherCu

21、nninghamandLeeJ.M.Seymour,wAPlagueofInitials:Fragmentation,Cohesion,andInfightinginCivilWars,1inPerspectivesonPolitics,Vol.10,No.2(June2012),p.265.maintainingorder.4Fragmentationalsooccursattheregionallevel,inthatstatesinageographicalareanolongerhavetheability,eitherbecausetheyareunableorbecausethey

22、areunwilling,togeneratecollaborativepatternsofcontroloverissueareasorgeographicalspacesofsharedinterests(suchastradeorbordermanagement,tomentionjustafewexamples).Athirdlayerwherefragmentationtakesplaceiswithincommunities,wherearegroupingaroundsociallyconstructedidentitiesinvolvingcultural,national,e

23、thnicorreligiousdimensionstakesplace.Fragmentationtakingplaceatonelevelislikelytohaveanimpactontheothers.Atthestatelevel,fragmentationisduetothedifficultyofmaintainingorderwithinastate,sborders.Thestateenterscompeteswithothercentresofpower,includingrivalstateauthorities(forinstance,subnationalauthor

24、itiesseekingindependenceorautonomy)ornonstateactorssuchasterroristorganisations(e.g.,theIslamicState)armedmilitias(likethePopularMobilisationForcesinIraq),politicalpartiescontrollingtheirownmilitias(likeLebanon,sHezbollah)orillicittraffickingnetworks.5Statesaffectedbythisfragmentingdynamicsattractco

25、mpetitiveoutsideinterventionandserveastargetstoopportunisticaggressors.6FabriceBalancheconsidersthatstatefragmentationhasacommonprocessintheMiddleEast,despitesomenationalspecificities:thesegmentationofsocietyonconfessional,ethnicandnational(asinPalestine)orlocal(asinJordan)divisionsandthelossofstate

26、legitimacyduetothefailureofcapacitytogenerateanddistributegeneralwelfare.Behindthis,thereisageostrategiclogicofpowersseekingtoincreasetheirinfluenceoverthestateinquestion.?4 StephaneRosiere,wLafragmentationdeespace6tatiquemondia,inUespacepolitique,No.11(2010),https:/d0i.0rg/l0.4000espacepolitique.16

27、08.5 WenceslasMonzala,ReflexionssurIeconceptd,etatsdefaillantsendroitinternational,MasterThesis,UniversitedeStrasbourg,2012,https710/13/7604/m_Reflexions-sur-le-concept-detats-defaillants-en-droit-international1.html;SharonLecocq,EUForeignPolicyandHybridActorsintheMiddleEast:ReadyforGeopoliticalCont

28、estation?,inGlobalAffairs,Vol.6,No.4-5(2020),p.363-380,https:/doi.Org/10.1080/23340460.2021.1872401.6 YannisA.Stivachtis5uPoIiticaI(In)SecurityintheMiddleEast*,inBettinaKochandYannisA.Stivachtis(eds),RegionalSecurityintheMiddleEast.Sectors,VariablesandIssues,Bristol,E-InternationalRelationsPublishin

29、g,2019,p.40,https:/www.e-ir.info/?p=78695.7 FabriceBalanche,uL,EtatauProche-OrientarabeentreCommunautarisme,client6lisme,mondialisationetprojetdeGrandMoyenOrient,inUespacepolitique,No.11(2010),https:/doi.org/10.4000/espacepolitique.1619;RaymondHinnebuschandJasmineK.Gani(eds),TheRoutledgeHandbooktoth

30、eMiddleEastandNorthAfricanStateandStatesSystem,London,Routledge,2020.AccordingtoRaymondHinnebusch,competitionbetweenastateandato-be-state,bothcountingoninterventionsbyregionalpowers*,isexplainedbytheproblematicexportoftheWestphaliansystemtotheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA),withSyriaasthemaincaseinpo

31、int.LookingatthedoublefailureoftheSyrianstatetokeepcontrolovertheterritoryandstopthespreadofsectariannarratives,9HinnebuscharguesthattheWestphalianorderhasgivenuwaytoheterarchiczonesoflimitedstatehoodinwhichthesovereigntyofstatesiscontestedbybothinternational(supra-state)penetrationandsubstatefragme

32、ntation.10Theprocesshasactuallygonesofarthatfragmentedandoverlappinggovernance,permeableandcollapsingbordersandthelossofsovereigntytotransnationalmovementshavenowbecomethe“competitiveregime-buildingnrationaleoftheAssadregime.Thelatterhasreconfigureditselftofightinsurgentsinthecivilwar,jihadistwarlor

33、ds,andthecompetitiveinterventionismofglobalandregionalpowersactiveinSyria.nFragmentationatthestatelevelalsolikelyimpactsregions-andregionalfragmentationcaninturndestabilisestates.ExamplesincludedevelopmentsinNorth-EastearnSyriathathaveimplicationsforTurkeyandtheinstabilityinSomaliathatisaffectingEth

34、iopiaaswellasKenya.TheHornofAfrica(HoA)isactuallyaninterestingcase,asitincreasinglyshowstheelementsthatcharacterisefragmentedregions.Firstistheabsenceofahegemonorananchorstateabletostabilisetheregiontosomeextent.Secondistheeasewithwhichinternalconflictsinindividualstatesspilloverintoneighbouringstat

35、es,asisthecasewithSomalia.Thirdistheubiquityofsecessionistthruststhroughouttheregion.Inadditiontohostingsomeofthemostprotractedcrisesonthecontinent,greatpowerrivalriesareoftenplayedoutintheHorn.12Finally,fragmentationaffectscommunities.Theworldisincreasinglyinterconnectedthankstoinformationtechnolog

36、ies,commercialexchangesandthemovementofpeopleandcapital.Paradoxically,greaterinterconnectionhasentailedgrowingfragmentationofpeoplesandwithincountries.Divisionswithinsocietiesareoneofthekeyemergingdynamicsidentifiedinreportsfocusingonlarge-scalesocietaltrends,withtermssuchasufragmentation,simbalance

37、and“contestation“increasinglyflaggedOUt.13Thisfragmentationleadstoaregroupingaroundbasicvaluessuchasculture,nationality,ethnicityorreligion.ThecaseofLebanonisparticularlyrelevant.There,allpoliticalpartiesarebasedoncommunityorconfessionalallegiancesandprivilegesareallocatedonthebasicofethnicorreligio

38、usgroups.CivilwarsinLibya,YemenandSyriacontributetoatrendtowardsfamilyandclancommunities.Fragmentationoccursatalllevelswithinsociety,fromthestatetosubnationalcommunities.Besides,fragmentationononelevelimpactsotherlevels.Indeed,areasinwhichstateauthorityisweakoftenexperienceincreasedlocalconflicts,an

39、dthisinstabilitycanspilloverintoneighbouringstates,therebydestabilisingandpotentiallyfragmentingwholeregions.3. DriversoffragmentationFragmentationatthevariouslevelsoutlinedaboveisdrivenbyanumberoffactors.Afirstsetoffactorsliewiththedomesticstructure,weakinstitution,andlackoflegitimacyofstateactors.

40、15RomanetPerrouxpointedinthecaseofLibyatodomesticfactorsasoneofthereasonsforthefragmentationexposedduringandafterthe2011revolution,whenarmedgroupswereformedaroundtribes,clansorneighbourhoods.16Thepoliticaltransitioniscurrentlystillatastandstill,andthe13 USNationalIntelligenceCouncil,GlobalTrends2040

41、.AMoreContestedWorld,March2021,https:/www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home.14 RaffaellaA.DelSarto,41ContentiousBordersintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica:ContextandConcepts,inInternationalAffairs,Vol.93,No.4(July2017),p.767-787,https:/d0i.0rg/l0.1093iaiix070.15 StephenKrasnerandThomasRisse,uExternaIActors,St

42、ate-Building,andServiceProvisioninAreasofLimitedStatehood:lntroductioninGovernance,Vol.27,No.4(October2014),p.545-567.16 Jean-LouisRomanetPerroux5t,TheDeepRootsofLibyasSecurityFragmentation,jinMiddlecountryisriddledwithafragmentedpoliticalandsecuritylandscape.Thelackofasenseofnationalidentityandweak

43、centralinstitutionsareatthecentreofLibya,sproblems.TheweaknessofinstitutionsandpoorgovernanceisalsoaddressedbyAlexanderRondoswhenresearchingtheH0A.17AccordingtoRondos,factionsactintheirinterestwhentheimpactofeconomicdifficultiesandthelackofeffectiveandcohesivestateandsocialinstitutionskickin.Romanet

44、Perrouxdescribesthesituationasan“insecuritydilemma,wherebythescarceabilityofthecentralgovernmenttoprovidegovernancestimulatesperipheralcentresofpowertoprovidegovernancethemselves,whichinturnfurtherdiminishesthecentralstate,scapacityforgovernance.Perrouxnoteshowthissituationofinsecuritydilemmaemerges

45、andconsolidatedwhereprocessofstate-buildingbasedonpluralityanddemocratisationaremissing.Moreover,asevidencedintheMENAregion,thelackofefficientinstitutionshasresultedinweakregionalism.Theliteraturealsopointstothelackofstatelegitimacyasakeydriveroffragmentation.KrasnerandRissearguethatwithoutlegitimac

46、y,statefailureisallbutguaranteed,althoughtheyalsoarguethatlegitimacyisnotsufficientforeffectivegovernance.wZartmanalsouraisesthequestionoflegitimacyofplayersaswellastheirCaPabiIitieS”.20Thispointisimportantwithregardstoconflictmanagementefforts.Furthermore,theliteraturediscussestheeffectofexternalin

47、terventiononfragmentationofaregion.RondosstatesthatintheHoAexternalinterventionisoneofthecombustibleingredients-alongwithdomesticfactors-inaregionalwayshoveringontheedgesofinsecurity.21Instead,theregionmusttrytosetoffaEasternStudies,Vol.55,No.2(2019),p.200-224.17 AlexanderRondos,wTheHomofAfrica:ItsS

48、trategicImportanceforEurope,theGulfStatesandBeyond,inHorizons,No.6(Winter2016),p.150-160,https:/www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2016-issue-no-6/the-horn-of-africaits-strategic-importance-for-europe-the-gulf-states-and-beyond.*40MortenValbjorn1uNorthAfricaandtheMiddleEast,inTanjaA.Borzeland

49、ThomasRisse(eds),TheOxfordHandbookofComparativeRegionalismfOxford,OxfordUniversityPress,2016,p.249-270.19 StephenKrasnerandThomasRisse,ExternalActors,State-Building,andServiceProvisioninAreasofLimitedStatehood:Introduction1,cit.,p.563.20 I.WilliamZartman,FragmentedConflict:HandlingtheCurrentWorldDisorder,inGlobalPolicy,Vol.10,No.S2(June2019),p.8,https7doi.org10.1111/1758-5899.12679.21Alexa