巴塞罗那国际事务研究中心-欧盟南部地区城市的气候弹性.欧盟绿色协议的机遇（英）-2021.11-38正式版.docx

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1、ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU,sSouthernNeighbourhoodOpportunitiesfortheEUGreenDealThestudyispublishedintheframeworkoftheCascadingClimateImpacts(CASCADES)Project(2019-2023),fundedthroughtheEuropeanCommissionsHorizon2020programme,seewww.cascades.eu.ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU,sSouthernNeighbou

2、rhood:OpportunitiesfortheEUGreenDealHannahAbdullah1KarimElgendyandHanneKnaepenNovember2021Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanicalincludingphotocopying,recordingoranyinformationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutthepriorwrittenper

3、missionofthecopyrightholder.Pleasedirectallenquiriestothepublishers.Photocredit:CopyrightiStockContentsAcknowledgements4Summary5Introduction71. UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthern11Neighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilience2. Acloserlookaturbanresilienceinthreecities163. BringingtheGreenDealtotheSou

4、thern24Neighbourhood:Anopportunitytostepupcooperationwithcitiesaroundthewater-energy-foodnexusRecommendations2737Bibliography30AbouttheauthorsAcknowledgementsWewouldliketothankthefollowingfortheircontributiontothisreport:SarahArbezofCitesUniesLiban;HajarKhamlichiofMediterraneanYouthClimateNetwork;Ab

5、dellatifMahmoudofAssociationFederativedesExpertsetConsultantsdeIaCooperationTechniqueInternationale(AFECTI);MohamedSefiani,MayorofChefchaouen;GladaLahnandChrisAylettoftheEnvironmentandSocietyProgrammeatChathamHouse;AutumnForecast,RichCarterandIanBlenkinsopofSoapbox;andSarahFinch.SummaryCitiesintheMi

6、ddleEastandNorthAfricaarealreadysufferingtheeffectsofclimatechange.Weakurbanregulation,ineffectiveclimatepolicies,limiteddecentralizationandinsufficientempowermentoflocalauthoritiesandcivilsocietyfurtherdecreaseurbanresilience.Futureclimatescenariosandprojectedurbangrowththreatenthestabilityofthereg

7、ion;withpotentialnegativeknock-oneffectsonEurope.ThisCASCADESSpotlightStudyexaminesclimatevulnerabilitiesinurbanareasincountriestothesouthoftheEUandthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionandadvocatesforsystemicapproachestoaddressingurbanclimateresiliencebystrengtheningthewater-energy-foodnexus,aswell

8、asotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludeswithrecommendationsonhowtheEuropeanGreenDealcanhelpcitiesintheregionadapttoclimateimpacts,basedonawater-energy-foodnexusapproach.Overthepasttwodecades,theEuropeanCommissionhassteppedupitssupportforurbanclimateactionandresilience.Anincreasingnum

9、berofprogrammesfinancedundertheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP)Southhaveaddressedurbanclimateresilienceinresponsetotheregionsrapidurbanizationandthehighclimatevulnerabilityofcities.ThenumberofurbandwellersinthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionisestimatedtoreach527millionin2050,anincreaseof72%compa

10、redto2020.Atthesametime,climateimpacts-includingbothslowonsetchangesandsuddendisasters-areputtingadditionalstressonurbaninfrastructure.Thisstressisaggravatedbyweakurbanregulationsthathavecreatedunsustainabledevelopmenttrendswhichunderminethepotentialbenefitsofurbanizationandadverselyaffecturbanclima

11、teresilience.Theprevalenceofhighlycentralizedadministrativesystemsandincompletedecentralizationreformshamperlocalcapacitybuildinganddecisionmaking,whichareprerequisitesforeffectiveadaptationandresilience.Theconvergenceoftheregion,sharshclimaticnditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassocia

12、tedsocio-economicburdenscanexacerbateexistingpoliticalinstability,conflict-inducedmigrationandpoverty.ThesedevelopmentscouldcascadeintotheEU,alteringsecurity,tradeanddiplomaticrelationswiththeSouthernNeighbourhood.TheEU,sevolvingapproachtoworkingwithlocalauthoritiesonurbaninfrastructureandclimategov

13、ernanceisafirststeptowardsaddressingtheregionsintertwinedurbanandclimatecrises.However,thisapproachisstillintheearlystagesandthereisaneedtoreflectonlessonslearnedandhowurbanspaces,climatesandgovernanceareevolvingintheregion.ThisstudysuggeststhattheEllsoverwhelmingfocusonsupportingcitiesintheregionwi

14、thenergyefficiencyandthetransitiontosustainableenergysystemsisnotenoughtostrengthenurbanclimateresilience.IncitiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhood,whichtypicallystrugglewithresourcemanagementandscarcity,climateresiliencewillincreasinglydependonlocalcapacitiestoformulateandimplementnexusapproaches,especial

15、lyinthewater,energyandfoodsectors.Basedoncasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediaryurbanareas,thestudyadvocatesforasystemicapproachtoaddressingurbanclimateresilienceinSouthernNeighbourhoodcities.Consideringtheestablishedeffectivenessofapplyingawater-energy-foodnexusapproachtoimprovingclimateresilience,t

16、hepaperstressestheneedforlocalgovernmentstoexplorenexusopportunitiesbetweenthewater,energyandfoodsectorsinordertoachieveresilientandsustainableurbanism,whilealsohighlightingotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludesbyexploringhowfutureexternalactionaroundtheEuropeanGreenDealanditsambitio

17、nsforsystemictransformationcouldbenefitfromsteppingupcooperationwithcitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhoodaroundthewater-energy-foodnexus.IntroductionOverthepasttwodecades,theEuropeanCommissionhasprogressivelysteppedupitssupportforurbanclimateactionandresilience,signallingitsrecognitionoftheimportantrolel

18、ocalgovernmentsplayinthetransitiontoaclimate-neutralEurope(Kern,2019;Abdullah,2021).Inlinewiththeseefforts,thestrategistsbehindtheEuropeanGreenDeal(EGD)stressthatcitiesuwillhaveahugeroletoplayinthefundamentaltransformationthattheGreenDealistodriveinoursocieties(EuropeanCommissionVicePresidentFransTi

19、mmermansquotedinEuropeanCommitteeoftheRegions,2019).ThenewClimate-NeutralandSmartCitiesmissionrunbytheHorizonEuroperesearchandinnovationprogramme,whichsupportsandshowcasescitiesasinnovationhubsthatcanaccelerateandleadontheEGD,isoneexampleofpioneeringinitiativesunderway(EuropeanCommission,n.d.a).Asur

20、banexperimentationwithclimatemitigationhasshown,citiesaretheoptimalscalefortheelaborationandimplementationofpolicyinnovation(Bulkeley&CastanBroto,2012).Theyarelargeenoughtotestandpilotnewideasbeforemodellingsolutions,andsmallenoughtodiscardthemiftheydonotworkwellwithoutexcessivecosts.Climateresilien

21、ceatsubnationallevelhasalsobecomeafocusareaoftheEU,sworkwithitsneighbourstothesouth.TheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP)isaforeignrelationsinstrumentforcooperationwithneighbouringcountriesandtheSouthernNeighbourhoodcoverstenpartnercountries:Algeria,Egypt,Israel,Jordan,Lebanon,Libya,Morocco,Palestine,

22、SyriaandTunisia.Inresponsetotheregion,srapidurbanizationandthehighclimatevulnerabilityofcities,anincreasingnumberofprogrammesfinancedunderENP-Southaddressurbanclimateresilience.Inaddition,theUnionfortheMediterranean(UfM)-theintergovernmentalorganizationofthe27EUmemberstatesand15partnercountriesfromt

23、heMediterraneanbasin-adopteditsfirstUrbanAgendain2017(UfM,2017),signallingthepoliticalwillingnesstoestablishamorecoordinatedapproachtourbanpolicy,includingonclimateresilience.Despitebeinghometosomeoftheoldestcontinuouslyinhabitedcitiesoftheworld,theMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)region,whichextendsfr

24、omtheMaghrebinnorthwestAfricatotheLevant,Iraq,andtheArabianPeninsula,isalatecomertourbanizationcomparedtoEuropeandNorthAmerica.WhilewesternEuropeurbanizedinthe19thcentury,reaching40%urbanpopulationatthebeginningofthe20thcentury,urbandwellersintheMENAregionrepresentedonly16%ofthetotalpopulationatthat

25、time.Duringthe20thcentury,theglobalizationofhinterlandsallowedcitiesoftheMENAregiontoovercometheirlimitednaturalresources,whichfuelledrapidgrowthinurbanization.Theregion,surbanpopulationgrewfrom35%ofthetotalinthe1960sto65%today,andremainshigherthantheglobalaverage(WorldBank,2021;Elgendy&Abaza,2020).

26、Estimatesprojectthatthenumberofurbandwellersintheregionwillreach381millionin2030and527millionin2050,thenumberofcitieswithonetofivemillionresidentswillincreasesignificantly,andthemajorityofurbanagglomerationswillgrowatanannualrateofonetothreepercent(UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,2

27、018b).Atthesametime,climatehazardsandchangeareputtingadditionalstressonurbaninfrastructure.TheArabregionwillbecomehotteranddrier,withexpectedincreasesinaverageannualtemperaturesof1.2oC-2.6oCbythemiddleofthe21stcenturyandupto1.5oC-4.8oCbytheendofthecentury,dependingontheclimatechangescenario.Temperat

28、ureincreasesareexpectedtobemorepronouncedinthesummer,andinnon-coastalcities.Averagemonthlyrainfallwillreduce,particularlyincoastalcities,whichwillleadtoincreasedaridity(UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2017).Theprojectedtemperatureincreasesdonotcapturethetemperatureextremes,whi

29、chareexacerbatedbyurbanbuild-upandalreadyexceedwhaturbaninfrastructurecanwithstandinmanyplaces.Citiesacrosstheregion,includingDamascusandBaghdad,witnessedrecordtemperaturesinthesummerof2020,increasinghealthriskstoresidents(Alahmadetal.,2020;Al-Bouwarthanetal.,2019).Theseclimateimpactsandstressorsare

30、furtheraggravatedbygenerallyweakregulation(weaklawsorweakenforcementorboth)thathasallowedunsustainableurbandevelopmenttrendsthatadverselyaffecturbanclimateresilience.Energyandwaterinefficiency,inadequatedrainage,buildingonnaturalfloodplainsandalackofalternativemobilitymodesarecommonfeatures.Inpart,t

31、helackofurbanplanningisduetohighlycentralizedadministrativesystemsandincompletedecentralizationreforms,whichhamperlocalcapacitybuildingandlocaldecisionmaking.Administrations,bothcentralandlocal,areoftenunabletokeepupwithurbanexpansionandrisingdemandforessentialservices,especiallywater,energyandwaste

32、management.Theresulthasbeenanexplosionofinformalactivitiesandagrowinggapinstandardsbetweenprivateandpubliclymanagedspaces(Elgendy&Abaza,2020;Farhan&Al-Shawamreh,2019;Piffero,2009).Theconvergenceofharshclimaticconditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocio-economicburdenswillexace

33、rbateexistinginequalitiesandcauseincreasingpoverty.Thiscouldleadtosocialandpoliticalinstability,andpossiblytoconflictsthatwouldinturninducefurtherpovertyandmigration(Abouelnaga,2019).Europewillnotbeinsulatedfromthesepotentialchainsofevents,whichwilllikelycascadeintotheEU,alteringsecurity,supplychain

34、andtradeanddiplomaticrelationswiththecountriesoftheSouthernNeighbourhood.Theconvergenceofharshclimaticconditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocioeconomicburdenswillexacerbateexistinginequalitiesandcauseincreasingpovertyTheEU,sevolvingapproachtoworkingwithlocalauthoritiesonclim

35、ategovernanceintheSouthernNeighbourhoodhasbeenafirststeptowardsaddressingtheregion,sintertwinedurbanandclimatecrises.ProgrammeslaunchedundertheENP(seeBox1,page25)havemainlyassistedmunicipalitiesandgovernorateswiththepreparationofsustainableenergyandclimateactionplans,andrecentyearshavealsoseennascen

36、texperienceinfinancingandimplementationofthoseplans(Almasri&Sarkar,2021).Notably,themovetowardsworkingonurbanissuesunderENP-Southhasbeenpartofabroadershifttowardscity-levelclimateactiondrivenbyglobalinitiativesliketheC40CitiesClimateLeadershipGroup,ResilientCitiesNetworkandEBRDsGreenCitiesActionPlan

37、,whichincludecitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhoodamongtheirmembers.ButurbanclimatecooperationbetweenEuropeandtheSouthernNeighbourhoodisstillintheearlystagesandthereisfurtherneedtoreflectonlessonslearnedandonhowurbanspaces,climatesandgovernanceareevolving.TheEuropeanCommissionsnewagendafortheSouthernNeig

38、hbourhood(EuropeanCommission,2021b)highlightsthegreentransitionandclimateactionaspriorityareasandintegraltotheregion,sresilientpost-pandemicrecovery.Yet,whileitrecognizesthelocalandurbandimensionsoftheseprocesses,thechallengesandopportunitiestheyposerequiremoreelaboration.Climatecooperationatthesubn

39、ationallevelcreatesnewchallengesfortheEU.Forexample,thereisgeneralconsensusthatanexusapproachtomanagingresourcesimprovesclimateresilience(Medinilla,2021;Mohtar,2017;UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2016).TheEUsdevelopmentprojectsandplansintheSouthernNeighbourhoodthatfocusonnati

40、onal-levelinfrastructureandagricultureoftenadoptasingle-systemapproach.EUcity-levelprogrammeshavesofarlargelyfocusedonfindingsectoralsolutionsforenergy(seeBox1,page25).Butasdemonstratedbytheregionalcasestudiesinthispaper,thetransformationofasingleurbansectorisnotenoughtostrengthencity-levelclimatere

41、silience.Instead,exploringsynergiesbetweenurbansectors-inparticularwater,energyandfood-canprovidemoreresilientandsustainablesolutions(GIZ&ICLEI,2014).Thistypeofapproachhasnotbeenappliedmuchinurbancooperationprogrammes.WiththeEUcurrentlychartingtheexternaldimensionoftheEGD(CounciloftheEuropeanUnion,2

42、021)1thisisanopportunemomenttoassesshowclimateandenergydiplomacycouldbenefitfromsteppingupcooperationwithcitiesaroundwater-energy-foodnexusapproaches.TheEGD,sambitionforsystemictransformationcallsforasystemicapproachtourbanclimateresilienceandsustainabilitythatidentifiestrade-offsandstrengthenssyner

43、giesbetweensectors.ThisstudyexaminesthespecificclimatevulnerabilitiesinurbanareasintheSouthernNeighbourhoodandwiderMENAregion,and,basedoncasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediaryurbanareas,1Itadvocatesforaholisticvisionandsystemicapproachinaddressingurbanclimateresilienceincities.Consideringtheestablis

44、hedeffectivenessofapplyingawater-energy-foodnexusapproachtoimprovingclimateresilience,thepaperstressestheneedforlocalgovernmentstoexplorenexusopportunitiesbetweenthewater,energyandfoodsectorsinasystematicwayinordertoachieveresilientandsustainableurbanism,whilehighlightingotherenablingfactorssuchasde

45、centralization.Italsoidentifiesthewater-energy-foodnexusasaneffectiveentrypointforadvancingEGDgoalsintheSouthernNeighbourhood.Thestructureofthepaperisasfollows: Part1providesanoverviewoftheregionsexposuretoimpactsofclimatechangethatincreasevulnerabilityandreduceresilienceofcitiesandurbanareas.Itanal

46、ysesfactorslimitingcities,capacitytoadaptandbarrierstointegratingurbansustainabilityandresilience,andtheregionswater-energy-foodnexus.1Intermediarycitiesarecitieswithapopulationbetween50,000andonemillionpeoplethatgenerallyplayaprimaryroleinconnectingruralandurbanareastobasicfacilitiesandservices. Pa

47、rt2presentscasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediarycitiesinMorocco(Chefchaouen),Lebanon(Hammana)andTunisia(Gabes)toexaminecurrentregionalapproachestourbanresilienceandsustainabilitywhichdonotalwaysexplorelinkageswithothersectors. Part3exploreshowexternalactionaroundtheEGDprovidesanopportunitytomovebey

48、ondsectoralurbancooperationandtowardsamoresystemicapproachthatsupportscitiesinformulatingandimplementingwater-energy-foodnexusapproaches. ThepaperconcludeswithRecommendationsonhowtheEUcanbuildonthecooperationandpartnershipsithasalreadyestablishedwithsubnationalactorstobetterunlockthepotentialforbuil

49、dingclimateresilienceincitiesoftheSouthernPartnership.1. UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilienceUrbanclimateimpactsCitiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhoodandwiderMENAregion?faceanumberofclimaterisks.Averageannualtemperaturesacrosstheregionarepredictedtoriseby1.5oC-2.3oCor3.2oC-4.8oCbytheendofthe21stcentury,dependingontheclimatechangescenarioused.Maximumtemperaturesareexpectedtorisefrom43to50,especiallyininland