观察家研究基金会-对欧盟印太战略的评估（英）-2021.11-20正式版.docx

《观察家研究基金会-对欧盟印太战略的评估（英）-2021.11-20正式版.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《观察家研究基金会-对欧盟印太战略的评估（英）-2021.11-20正式版.docx（21页珍藏版）》请在课桌文档上搜索。

1、三nr能薪器xlvlFolndaticIssueBriefISSUENO.504NOVEMBER20212021ObserverResearchFoundation.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copied,archived,retainedortransmittedthroughprint,speechorelectronicmediawithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromORF.RFAnAssessmentoftheEuropeanUnion,sIndo-PacificStrate

2、gyGirishLuthraAbstractThenewIndo-PacificstrategybytheEuropeanUnion(EU)followspreviousmeasurestoincreaseengagementwiththeregionintheeconomic,securityandconnectivitydomains.TheplanindicatesaclearintenttopositiontheEUintheemergingglobalandregionalgovernancestructures,focusingonstrategicautonomy,inclusi

3、vity,therules-basedorder,andcommonpublicgoods.Implementingtheactionplanbasedonthestrategyislikelytofacenumerouschallenges,includingevolvingandsustainingconsensusonitwithintheEU.Nevertheless,itholdspromiseincontributingtothestabilityanddevelopmentoftheIndo-Pacific.Attribution:GirishLuthra,uAnAssessme

4、ntoftheEuropeanUnionsIndo-PacificStrategy,ORFIssueBriefNo.504,November2021,ObserverResearchFoundation.nApril2021,theEuropeanUnion(EU)releasedtheEUStrategyforCooperationintheIndo-Pacific,adocumentoutliningacooperationplanwiththelndo-Pacific.ThestrategydefinestheregionasextendingfromtheeastcoastofAfri

5、catothePacificIslandStates.ThisdiffersfromtheAmericanandAustralianconceptualisationoftheIndo-PacificasstretchingfromthewestcoastoftheUStothewesternshoresofIndia,andtheJapanese,FrenchandtheIndianinterpretationsthatseeitasextendingfromtheshoresofAfricatothatoftheAmericas.?Notwithstandingsuchinterpreta

6、tions,theEU,sstrategyhassignalledaclearintenttoreorientthegroupingsgeopoliticaloutlookandprovideguidanceforenhancedengagementwiththeIndo-Pacific.TheEuropeanCommissionandtheEUHighRepresentative/VicePresidentwererequestedtopresentafinalcommunicationforapprovalbasedontheproposedstrategy,whichwassubsequ

7、entlyreleasedon16September2021throughajointcommunicationtotheEuropeanParliamentandtheEuropeanCouncilthatoutlinedtherationaleforadeeperengagementwiththeIndo-Pacificandthekeyprinciplesthatwillguideit.3Abroadactionplantoimplementthestrategywasalsoincludedinthejointcommunication.WhileFrance,Germanyandth

8、eNetherlandsalreadyhadguidelinesandstrategydocumentsfortheIndo-Pacific,4theEU-wideumbrellastrategyisamajordevelopment.ItemphasisesthatEuropeaneconomicprosperityandtheEU,svisionofitsroleinamultipolarworldisstronglylinkedtotheIndo-Pacificregion.ItisanacknowledgementbyBrusselsoftheevolvinggeopoliticalr

9、ealities,andmarksarebalancefromthepreviousfocusonEasternEurope,theCaucasus,theLevantandNorthAfriCa.5TheguidancedocumentexplicitlyoutlinesawidespectrumofpotentialengagementwithcountriesintheIndoPacific,withamoveawayfromanexclusivefocusontradeandinvestmentbasedpartnerships.Nevertheless,thenewstrategyd

10、ocumentfortheIndo-PacificmustbeseeninthecontextoftheEU,sforeignandsecuritypolicyevolution.Withinthisbroadframework,thispaperwilloutlinethedistinctivefeaturesoftheEU,sIndoPacificstrategy,keyimperativesdrivingtheapproach,andthepotentialchallengesinitsimplementation.TL.heEU,sexternalpolicieshaveevolved

11、graduallysincethegroupingsformationin1993,bringininincreasedinternalcohesion.In2016,theEUpromulgatedtheEuropeanUnionGlobalStrategy(EUGS)1whichreplacetheEuropeanSecurityStrategy(adoptedin2003.TheEUGShighlightedtheimportanceofstrategicautonomyfortheEUandstressedtheneedtoenhanceitscredibilityasaglobalp

12、layer.Keyaspectscoveredweretoimproveinternalandexternalsecurity;stabilisefragilestatesontheEU,sperimeter;developanintegratedapproachtoconflictandcrises;promotepeaceandintegration;displayacommitmenttomultilateralsystems;andpromotesustainabledevelopmentandrespectforhumanrights.6Inaddition,thestrategye

13、xplicitlyhighlightedthedirectconnectionbetweenEuropeanprosperityandAsiansecuritysinceEuropeantradeandinvestmentinAsiadependedonstabilityintheregion.TheprogressoftheEUGShasbeenreviewedthroughannualimplementationreports,andtherehavebeencallstodevelopandpromulgateanewstrategyalignedmorewiththechanginge

14、nvironmentandchallenges.?Around80percentofthegoodsenteringtheEUtransitthroughtheIndianOcean,andhencethesecurityoftransitroutes,freedomofnavigationandtheruleoflawarecriticalforthegrouping.8TheEuropeanUnionMaritimeSecurityStrategy(EUMSS)wasadoptedinJune2014aftermuchdeliberation,withanactionplanagreedu

15、poninDecember2014underfivekeyareas:maritimeawareness;capabilitydevelopment;riskmanagement,protectionofcriticalmaritimeinfrastructure,andcrisisresponse;researchandinnovation;andeducationandtrainingsTheactionplanwasrevisedinJune2018toincluderegionalresponsestoglobalchallengesinthemaritimedomain.TheEUM

16、SSanditsattendantactionplanshadasignificantroleinmainstreamingmaritimeaspects,withmaritimesecurityaccordedhighpriority,inEUpoliciesandengagementwithotherregions,particularlythewesternIndianOcean.SecurityCooperationInthepost-ColdWarperiod,theEUdrewcomfortfromarepurposedNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization

17、(NATO)andlimiteditssecuritycooperationindistantregions.ItsawprincipalthreatsfromarevanchistRussia,Islamistterrorism,civilwarsandinsurgenciesinitsperiphery,WestAsiaandNorthAfrica,andmigration.wHowever,inthelastdecade,therehasbeenanincreasedrecognitionthatsecurityandstabilityintheIndo-Pacificregiondir

18、ectlyimpactEuropeansecurity.nDiplomaticengagementwithAsiawassteppedupthroughmultilateralandbilateralmechanisms,includingtheAsia-EuropeMeeting(ASEM).TheEUalsoparticipatesintheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)RegionalForumandEastAsiaSummit,isanobserverattheSouthAsianAssociationforRegionalCoope

19、ration,andcollaboratesextensivelywiththeAfricanUnionandtheIndianOceanRimAssociation.TheEUalsohasstrongbilateralpartnershipswithJapan,SouthKorea,China,andIndia.TheEUhasparticipatedinmilitaryoperationsinWestAsiaandNorthAfricaundertheNATOumbrellaorcoordinatedundertheCommonSecurityandDefencePolicy,withv

20、oluntaryparticipationbythenationalmilitaries.12TheEUhasprovidedthebulkoffundingtotheIndianOceanCommission(IOC),whichwascreatedin1982andinstitutionalisedin1984,andcurrentlycomprisesfiveisland-nations(Comoros,ReunionIsland,Madagascar,Mauritius,andSeychelles)andsevenobservers,includingtheEU.Since2005,m

21、aritimesecurityisakeypartoftheIOC-EUpartnership,withaspecialfocusonEasternandSouthernAfricaandtheWesternIndianOcean.13In2018,theEUlaunchedtheMaritimeSecurityprogrammetostrengthencapacity-buildingandinformationsharingwithcountriesineasternandsouthernAfricaandtheIndianOcean.11Thiswasfollowedbyacompreh

22、ensivedeclarationonmaritimesecurityinthewesternandsouthernIndianOceaninJune2019.sTheEUalsofundsseveralregionalprogrammesinthefieldofsustainablefisheries,portsecurityandmaritimeinfrastructureinthewesternIndianOceanregion.UndertheEUMSS,membercountrieswereencouragedtodeploytheirnavalassetstostrengthenm

23、aritimesecurityagainstincreasingthreats.Althoughhigh-leveldialoguesonmaritimesecuritywereinstitutedwithASEAN,IndiaandChina,thewesternIndianOceanwastheprimaryareaforEUnavalpresenceanddeployments.TheEUlauncheditsfirstnavaloperationundertheEUNavalForce(EUNAVFOR)inSomaliain2008(OpAtlanta)toprotectshippi

24、ngheadingtoandfromthatcountry.Thescopeofthemissionwaslaterexpandedtoincludecounterpiracy.InSomalia,theEUhasalsosustainedcapacitybuildingandtrainingmissions.EuropeannavalshipsalsoparticipateinUSandNATO-ledtaskforcesinthewesternIndianOcean.TheEU,sapproachtosecurityinthelastdecadeorsofocusedonthreatssu

25、chasterrorism,piracyandarmedrobbery,organisedcrimeandunlawfulacts,illicittraffickingofarms,narcoticsandhumans,illegalfinancialflows,illegalandunreportedfishing,andmaritimemilitia.Otherchallengeslikemarineecology,biodiversity,climateandenvironmentwerealsooftenincludedindiscussionsonsecurity.EconomicI

26、mperativesInconjunctionwiththeUS,Europeplayedamajorroleinshapingthepost-1945tradingsystemandinthepromulgationoftheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTradein1947.NumerousrulesandnormsrelatedtotradewereprogressivelymadebindingforEUmemberstatesthroughlegislation.Thenormativerootsofarules-basedsystemcanalsobes

27、eenintheEU,seconomicintegrationandsingle-marketprinciples.Duetothenatureofitsstructuralandlegalprovisions,theEUcannotfollowpowerandthreat-basedtradepoliciesliketheUS,norcanitundertakelarge-scalestrategicinvestmentslikeChina.17AnymajorstructuralchangeinthecurrenttradingsystembasedonUSorChineseapproac

28、hescanjeopardiseEurope,seconomicstatureandinterests.Accordingly,in2021,Brusselsupdateditstradepolicytoemphasiseuopenstrategicautonomy,whichalignswellwiththefreeandopenIndoPacificconstructasitcontinuestofocusonpreferentialtradeagreementswithdevelopedandmiddle-incomeeconomiesandeconomicpartnershipagre

29、ementswithdevelopingcountries.TheEU,sMarketAccessStrategy19ismeanttocreatethebestpossibleconditionsforEuropeanfirms,intellectualpropertyrightsprotection,anddisputesettlement.IttrackstradeandinvestmentbarriersthroughannualreportsandsupportsthereformandstrengtheningoftheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).Asa

30、block,theEUistheworld,slargesttraderofmanufacturedgoodsandSerViCeS(seeFigure1)andranksfirstininboundandoutboundinvestments.20Figure 1:GlobalTradeinGoodsandServices,2009-2019(inbillioneuros)so-nWOOOO7060Countries2009b2014h2019Source:AdaptedfromtheEuropeanCommissionsDGTradeStatisticalGuide,August2020H

31、owever,theEU,sshareinglobaltradedeclinedfrom18.1percentin2009to16.4percentin2019(seefigure2)despiteanaveragegrowthof6percentoverthesameperiod.Figure 2:PercentageShareinGoodsandServices,2009-2019(in%)CanadaSingaporeIndiaSouthKoreaSHongKongUKJapanChinaUSAEU-2768101214161820ShareinPercentage(%)2019B201

32、4B2OO9Source:AdaptedfromtheEuropeanCommissionDGTradeStatisticalGuide,Aueust2020,EU-ChinatradehasseenasignificantincreasesinceChinajoinedtheWTOinDecember2001,withtheEU,sexportsingoodsincreasingbyover10percentandinservicesbyover15percentperyear.Importsalsogrewrapidly,withtheEU,stradedeficitrisingtoUS$

33、200billion.21TheEUisnowChinaslargesttradingpartner,andChinaistheEU,ssecond-largest.RisingconcernsaboutChina,stradeandinvestmentpoliciesanditsdisregardforhumanandlabourrightschangedEuropeanperceptionsoftheBeltandRoadInitiative.AbroaderhardeningofpoliticalstanceshascontributedtothedelayinratifyingtheE

34、U-ChinaComprehensiveAgreementonInvestment(CAI).However,aninprincipleagreementwasinkedinDecember2020betweenthetwosideswiththeincorporationofseveralsafeguards.22Nevertheless,theEUmustcontinuecooperationwithChina,particularlyintrade,investmentandclimatechange.TheEUalsohashightradevolumeswithJapan,South

35、Korea,India,SingaporeandAustralia(seeFigure3foracomparisonoftheEU,stotaltradewiththesefivecountries,andChinaandtheUS).Figure 3:TotalEUTradein2019(inbillioneuros)561.9619700600500400300200100380USAAustralia + India + Japan + Singapore + South KoreaSource:AdaptedfromEuropeanCommissionsTradeStatisticsT

36、heEUhassignedregionaltradeagreementswithIndo-PacificcountrieslikeSouthKorea(2011),Singapore(2019),Japan(2019)andVietnam(2020),andeconomicpartnershipagreementswiththePacificstates(Fiji,PapuaNewGuinea,Samoa,andtheSolomonIslands).TheEUwillreapsignificanteconomicbenefitsfromtheexistingpacts,andpotential

37、tradedealswithASEANandSouthAsiancountriesandthefourQuadstates(India,Australia,Japan,andtheUS).23ConnectivityIn2014,theEUgavefreshimpetustoitsapproachtoconnectivitythroughdiscussionswithChinaandintheASEM.InOctober2018,theEuropeanCounciladoptedtheConnectingEuropeandAsia-BuildingBlocksforanEUStrategy/w

38、hichwasdevelopedaroundfourP川arsenergy,transport,digital,andpeople-to-peoplelinksandaimedforsustainable,secureandsmartconnectivity.24Thestrategyalsoaimedtoenhancetradeandinvestmentundertheexistingandevolvingrules-andnorms-basedframework.25TheEU,svaluepropositiononconnectivityfocusesontrade,businessan

39、dfinanceflowsthataresustainable,comprehensiveandrules-based.InSeptember2019,theEllsfirstpartnershiponconnectivitywasfinalisedwithJaPan.26InthejointministerialstatementissuedinDecember20201theEUandASEANoutlinedtheobjectivetopromoteconnectivitybetweenthetworegions.27ThiswasfollowedbytheEU-IndiaCompreh

40、ensiveConnectivityPartnershipinMay2021tosupport*,resilientandsustainableconnectivityprojects,inIndiaandotherregionssuchasAfrica,CentralAsia,andtheIndo-PaCifiC.28TheEirSnewIndo-Pacificstrategyisaprogressiononprevioussecurity,economicandconnectivityplans,suchastheEuropeanUnionGlobalStrategyandEuropean

41、UnionMaritimeSecurityStrategy.Inmanyways,theEU,snewIndo-PacificstrategyisaprogressionoftheEUGS,EUMSS,andotherregion-,country-,andsector-specificstrategydocuments.ThenewIndo-PacificstrategyemphasisesthattheEUW川reinforceitsstrategicfocus,presence,andactionsinthatregion.Itstressestheneedforalong-termpe

42、rspectivewhileretainingadequateflexibility,andhighlightssevenpriorityareas:sustainableandinclusiveprosperity;greentransitions;oceangovernance;digitalgovernanceandpartnerships;connectivity;securityanddefence;andhumansecurity.Thejointcommunicationstatesthatintensecompetition,militarybuild-upandincreas

43、ingtensionsinhotspotssuchastheSouthChinaSea,theEastChinaSea,andtheTaiwanStrait,directlyimpactEuropeansecurityandprosperity/Notably,FranceistheonlyEUmembercountrywitharegularnavalpresenceinthewiderIndo-Pacificregion.AsaresidentpowerwithislandterritoriesintheIndianOceanandthePacificOcean,Francehasbeen

44、deepeningitsmaritimesecuritycooperationwithcountriesintheregion,andmaintainsamilitarypresenceintheUAE5Djibouti,ReunionIsland,Mayotte,NewCaledonia,andFrenchPolynesia.30Ithasalsodelineatedjointregionalcommandsandmaritimezonesinbothoceansandhasconductedregularnavaldeploymentsandexercisesintheregion.Fur

45、thermore,FrancewasthefirstEUcountrytooutlineavisionfortheIndo-Pacificin2018,31andastrategyin2019.32IthaslongurgedforacomprehensiveEuropeanapproachtotheIndo-PaCifiC声andwilllikelybeatorchbeareroftheEU,smilitarypresenceanddeploymentsintheregionintheneartomediumterm.Thenewstrategydocumentalsoreferstoani

46、ncreaseinhybridthreats,andstressesthattheIndo-Pacificregionisvitalformitigatingclimatechangeandprotectingthedelicateecologicalbalance.OnChina,thedocumentstatesthatamultifacetedengagementandtheCAIwillbemutuallybeneficialbutaddsthattheEUwillcontinueto“pushbackt,whererequired.TheEU,soverallChinastrateg

47、yseekstoaddresssometradechallengesthroughdefensivemeasuresandsuitablebalancingwithtransatlanticcooperationwiththeUS.uWithintheIndo-Pacific,theEUhasmajortradeandinvestmentrelationswithmanycountries.AccordingtotheSeptember2021jointcommunication,EuropeandtheIndo-Pacificaccountforover70percentofglobaltr

48、adeingoodsandservices,andover60percentofglobalforeigndirectinvestmentflows.ThestrategyalsoindicatesplanstoconcludetradeagreementswithAustraliaandNewZealandandmakeprogressontradetalkswithIndonesia,India,Malaysia,thePhilippines,andThailandandtheeconomicpartnershipagreementwiththeEastAfricanCommunity.T

49、henewstrategyconsidersconnectivityasakeydrivingforceinitsoutreachtotheIndo-Pacificregion,andakeytoolforcooperationinthe21stcentury,andidentifiesJapan,India,andtheASEANascoreIndo-Pacificpartners.WhenseenincomparisonwiththeIndo-Pacificstrategiesandoutlooksofothercountries,theEllsstrategyhasseveraldistinctfeatures:WideScope:Whilethefocu